Thoughts on Markets

Tuesday, June 06, 2006

Answer to Yesterday's Question is NO!

The correction was not over yesterday. For the last 24 hours, gold hit a high of $644.40 yesterday just after noon. The low is $625.50 today just before noon. While it traded in a narrow range of about $640 to $644 yesterday, it has dropped lower.

The 30-day Kitco.com chart gives a very bad picture, the 60-day looks slightly better, but the 1-year chart clearly shows the longer term bull trend is well intact. Thus, we must conclude that short term is showing weakness. So it is time for caution. I am still reluctant to sell, but could sell some call options with near term expiration dates on some of my mining stocks. That way, I immediately collect funds for use and do not have to wait long for expiration. Hopefully, there will not be a loss of the stocks to the buyer of the calls.

Exercise caution on any purchases. I favor purchase of bullion coins, Central Fund of Canada, and Metals Direct of Everbank.com. In this way, one is purchasing the metal and not the mining stocks.

By the way, though prices of mining stocks are somewhat lower, they have not fallen on extremely bad times.

This further correction is evidence of the fact that the masses had little interest in the rise of gold prices last month. There was some hype, but not nearly enough to warrant a beginning of the "gold rush." I am not selling, but holding for the long haul. The long haul may last for the next few years. I do expect this correction to end before we get into the fall, perhaps, as early as July or August. Prediction is dangerous, as there are many factors of which we are not aware. Only God has perfect foresight, because He is in absolute control of all. I am very pleased that He is in control.

It is time for very cautious buying if you are risk tolerant. I believe we should track the price of gold and wait until we see a positive change. We need a strong double bottom formation (W) with a pick up in volume.

I believe gold will go much higher long term, but unless you are without gold and mining stocks, it is a time for waiting. Study the markets and make your own decisions.

Best to each, Doug

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