Thoughts on Markets

Friday, March 24, 2006

Dollar Gained Some Temporary Strength

The dollar is up some in spite of the fact, that the U.S. needs to borrow $3 Billion per day to stay afloat. The total debt for our governments and ourselves remains some where above $40 Trillion. In the current economic thought, our dollar must be lower to make what few manufactured goods we produce more attractive to foreigners. However, the dollar remains higher for the time being.

I hope that some more of you got on board with DROOY as low as $1.20 or so this week. Frankly, I did not expect to see it below $1.30. It is going back up at present and trading at $1.36 now. Gold is currently at $556.60 and it has spent most of the last 24 hours in a very narrow range around $550. The low for the period was $545.90 at 10:21 yesterday and the high was $556.70 at 10:08 today (NY Times).

Examining the 1 Year Gold Chart of Kitco.com, it seems that the price of gold is approaching the upper trend line of lower highs since early February. Were it to break through this line with a price above $560, technical analysis tells us that it will go higher. Is this always the case? No, but it generally is.

Our two senators went to China to encourage the Chinese to lower the value of the Renminbi. In spite of their boastful rhetoric upon return, they accomplished nothing. It was just another expensive boondoggle. Guess what, all China had to do to give them lock jaw was to point toward the towering Chinese holding of U.S. dollar instruments. Were they to dump these on the markets, guess what the dollar would be worth? Almost nothing! We will not be able to force China to drop the value of their currency. They will do it in a measured pace over time as they see it beneficial to their economy. By the way, they have a substantial growing middle class with a huge appetite for the products they produce. With the opening of the EURO markets and with this burgeoning domestic demand, they no longer are as dependent upon the consumers in America as in months gone by.

The new silver ETF is nearing approval by the SEC. In anticipation of the additional demand upon the narrow supply of silver, the price has stayed above $10. It is now $10.70. I believe the current price it too high; that is, I believe we will see it some lower in the near future. Long term, I remain bullish on both silver and gold. I will not consider the silver ETF for my own portfolio, because of the management expenses. I prefer the Metals Direct opportunity offered by everbank.com and have moved some funds into their pooled gold account. You can check it out at the everback.com website. It is worth a look. See if it might be for you.

It is hard to realize that March, 2006, will end in one week. Time is really flying. Then comes the Income Tax month. By the way, your personal and trust returns are due on April 17th this year since the 15th is on a Saturday. A really fun time? It would not be so bad if our taxes were being spent in a way to give the glory to God. BUT, THEY ARE NOT!

Purpose to worship our Sovereign Lord on His day (March 26). This is but one part of recognizing and giving Him the glory due Him. After all, it is He who has made us and not we ourselves. Thus, we owe all to Him, including our next breath or heart beat. Our very life depends upon His will. Realize this and live to His glory!

Best to each from "wintry" San Antonio, Doug

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