Thoughts on Markets

Wednesday, August 22, 2007

With Bugles Blowing the Fed "Resqued" Us

My, how our God must be having a laughing binge! As Shakespeare said, "What fools we mortals be." Virtually all of the central banks moved to rescue the mortgage companies and sub-prime mortgage holders. Of course, our Federal Reserve dropped interest 1/2%, too. Certainly, this increases the supply of dollars to chase after goods and services or to the next asset balloon. The stock markets have voted their approval. Even the dollar is enjoying a brief upward move against most other currencies.

Though our markets have responded, it is a bit early to tell which way they will go in the immediate future. The rallies have not been very impressive in volume and breadth. Gold is recovering, but silver is languishing. Silver is down, but I believe far from out. Even oil is down a bit. Hopefully, that will be reflected at the pumps.

I used a little over 42 gallons of gasoline to drive about 750 miles last week. Before the ethanol fiasco, it would have only taken about 35.7 gallons. I really wonder how great this ethanol is. I understand that it takes over one gallon of gasoline energy equivalent to produce one gallon of ethanol, and ethanol gives about 80% of the energy of gasoline. Thus, we use more energy to produce ethanol and it gives us less bang for the buck. Add to that, the subsidies the Federal Government gives to support the fiasco and we are losers all the way! Welcome once again to the efficiency of government.

Back to the mining stocks. Note, that DRD Gold has now gone back to DROOY as its symbol. The mining stocks are responding along with the general market. Gold is currently at 659.90 and silver 11.66. Silver seems to be held back for some reason.

With the volatility of markets for the past few days and today, it may be well to simply stand aside and keep our powder dry for better times to jump in. I would suggest that you use rallies to do some selling of losers you have in your portfolio. That has been my bent for the last week or so. I believe we will see higher prices for the immediate future, but suggest it is a time for caution.

We'll be watching to see the market action for the rest of the week. The market will reveal its direction soon. The DJI is up about 120 today. A possible indication of higher moves this week barring any significant event.

All is in the hands of our Sovereign God. Let us rest securely in His love and care.

Best to each, Doug

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