Thoughts on Markets

Sunday, March 30, 2008

Gold Still Bullish - Prepare for the worst and Pray for the best.

This is the US Gold Graph compliments of www.The-Privateer.com newsletter. Notice that gold remains in a bull market with the bottom at August 25, 1999. As noted the bull market was confirmed as shown on the graph. The current up trend line has held since the bottom was hit. Notice, too, that there was a strong correction from May, 2006 through early 2007. Then the all time high was struck on March 18 of this year. This graph shows that we are experiencing another correction presently. How long it will last no one really knows.

This is the time of year when precious metals generally languish in a narrow trading range through the summer. However; India, China, and Mid - East Sovereign Wealth Funds are a new source of funds for purchase of the precious metals. Many investors and central banks are beginning to favor currencies and other assets other than those in dollars. Borrowing from other nations are slowing.

Our economy is not percolating as the government statistics would have us believe. We no longer have a strong manufacturing base which would give us opportunity to export products into international market to to advantage of the lowered value of the dollar. Our manufacturing capability has been driven out by over regulation, taxation, and costs added under the influence of unions. Even much of our mining capability has moved out due to the over emphasis on environmental considerations.

The recent intervention by the Federal Reserve to save the banking and financial areas has met with very limited success. Big lay offs of workers in the financial and brokerage offices have been experienced and look to continue for the time being. The sub prime mortgages are still impacting adversely on the industry and foreclosures are looming in vastly increased numbers on the horizon. This promises a rough time ahead for those who must service large debt. This situation will be worsened greatly if unemployment were to increase. The net result is being revealed as consumers seem to have less disposable income and their discretionary buying is beginning to slow. After all, we have become a consuming economy rather than a manufacturing economy.

It is a time during which we must reduce unnecessary spending, pay off debt, avoid more debt, make our jobs as secure as possible, and save dollars for emergencies and investments. We must become very frugal people. It is important to give our employers the best we can. That is, we must make ourselves very valuable to our employers and provide more than is asked of us. We must work for our employers and clients as if we were working for the Lord Jesus Christ. That quality of work should ensure our job and the income it provides.

As we are learning in our study of II Corinthians, we are to earn for ourselves and more to be able to help those in need. First, for the household of faith and then for others. We are to be cheerful givers. While always praising the Lord for His blessings and the opportunities of service He provides for us.

Best to each this Lord's Day, Doug

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