Thoughts on Markets

Tuesday, January 06, 2009

"Trillion dollar deficits for years to come." says Obama

A sign of the times from Casey's Daily Resource Plus. How many folks are fat, dumb, and happy? Do we still have a great multitude of Joe Six-Packs who are totally oblivious to the poor economy and happy to sit with their six-pack of beer and sports on the week ends. Too many folks may be of this type. However, I see the greatest problem is that we have left the God who has blessed America for many decades. Remember, it is only the nation whose God is the Lord which is truly blessed.

Both silver and gold were capped at the opening of the market in NY today. That looks like typical market action. NOT! Both are down presently with gold at 840.60 and silver at 10.89. Both are on down ticks.

The lower price for the metals is presenting a better buying price for the mining stocks. My trading stocks are establishing a higher plateau of trading ranges. Since about December 18th to present, I have observed the following: DROOY (now 5.62) has traded in a range of about 5.57 to 5.92 with a peak on January 6th of 6.50. HMY (now 10.45) has traded in a range of about 9.12 to 10.84, but had two peaks at about 11.14. VGZ (now 1.30) has traded in a range of about 1.10 to 1.42. Could they go lower? YES! If they break below the low end of the trading ranges, it would be, for me, a time to jump in big time!

This has been a short period of time to establish a trading range, but it is what the market has given us. We will have to follow all three carefully and be a bit flexible in trading. I purchased some HMY this morning at 10.45 and would like to have more closer to 10.00. I have a limit buy order in on VGZ @ 1.10. It is a time for caution, but I do not want to be locked out as the prices go higher. It is time for some correction before they move to the next plateau, so I will be watching for more buying opportunities.

From Market Watch:

Alcoa slashes jobs, output to conserve cash

Aluminum giant to take four-quarter charge of at least $900 million

By Matt Andrejczak, MarketWatch
Last update: 4:36 p.m. EST Jan. 6, 2009

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - Alcoa Inc. said Tuesday it is cutting 13% of its workforce, closing plants, and further curbing aluminum output to conserve cash as it battens down for a lengthy recession.The company also said it will sell four businesses and is taking other steps that will result in a charge to fourth-quarter earnings of between $900 million and $950 million.

Alcoa said more than 13,500 employees will lose their jobs by the end of this year. The company is also jettisoning 1,700 contractor positions and instituting a global salary and hiring freeze. The article is HERE.

Government always divides the rich and the poor. It uses such diversions to avoid telling the truth. Walter E. Williams has a great article on this at Town Hall:

Rich People Versus Politicians
Sometimes I wish there were a humane way to get rid of the rich. Without the rich for whipping boys, we might be able to concentrate on what's best for the 99 and a half percent of the rest of us.

Warren Buffett and Bill Gates, with about $60 billion in assets each, are America's richest men. With all that money, what can they force us to do? Can they take our house to make room so that another person can build an auto dealership or a casino parking lot? Can they force us to pay money into the government-run retirement Ponzi scheme called Social Security? Can Buffett and Gates force us to bus our children to schools out of our neighborhood in the name of diversity? Unless they are granted power by politicians, rich people have little power to force us to do anything.

A GS-9, or a lowly municipal clerk, has far more life-and-death power over us. It's they to whom we must turn to for permission to build a house, ply a trade, open a restaurant and a myriad of other activities. It's government people, not rich people, who have the power to coerce and make our lives miserable. Coercive power goes a long way toward explaining political corruption. Read the whole article HERE.

Article on Platinum from Mine Web this morning:

Platinum back around $1,000 - but will it stay there?

Even though the platinum price has risen in the past few days on a hoped-for pick-up in auto sales on credit easing this may not occur soon enough to prevent a further short term decline.

Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted: Wednesday , 07 Jan 2009

LONDON -

Almost unnoticed by the markets the platinum price has been quietly recovering from a very brief fall to a level just below the gold price, to re-assert its position and premium over gold - at least for the moment!

Arguably, platinum was perhaps the most oversold metal commodity of all in the huge market downturn which took place in the second half of the year just past. It's not that the outlook is actually much better than it was a few weeks ago, but the reality is that much of the world's platinum production has been becoming uneconomic at current price levels and many mines need higher pgm prices to survive the current economic downturn. Read the article HERE.

More from Mine Web:

Gold ETF holdings still rising as Eastern demand falls

Rises in gold ETF holdings are currently helping the gold price maintain some strength despite big falls in Middle East and Indian imports.

Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted: Wednesday , 07 Jan 2009

LONDON -

Investment in gold ETFs and ETCs continues to rise and physical gold demand remains in the West strong, although traditional gold markets in the Middle East and India are showing sharp downturns in trade as higher prices and the global financial situation are taking their toll.

The largest of the gold ETFs, the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) has just stated that it now holds 787.88 tonnes of gold on January 7th. This continues an increasing level of gold holdings on each reporting day over the past month and is yet another new record. Read the article HERE.

Pamela Aden speaks on the economy and precious metals:

Pamela Aden: Ready to Rebound?
Source: The Gold Report 01/02/2009

Veteran analyst Pamela Aden’s studies of the market suggest that although recovery is by no means imminent, a respite for the battered stock market is due and she sees important signs of calming in the turbulence. In this wide-ranging interview with The Gold Report as one of Wall Street’s worst years comes to a close, Pamela—who with her sister, Mary Anne, publishes the highly regarded Aden Forecast—talks about prospects for gold, silver, bonds, currencies and more. Read the article HERE.

From GATA:

Central banks don't mind any amount of loss in gold

Section:

7:46p ET Tuesday, January 6, 2009

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

It's fun to tweak the British government for the portfolio loss it incurred by selling its gold reserves at the bottom of the market some years ago, as the news story and commentary appended here do. It's more fun because the British government cannot give the candid answer that would provide the supposed justification.

But nobody on gold's side should kid himself.

Whatever the British government lost by selling its gold was recovered many, many times over in the maintenance of the value of government currencies and bonds, which would have devalued drastically against gold and other real goods had a free market in gold been allowed to break out. Read the article HERE.

Folks, The Lord has opened 2009 with a great deal of challenge and excitement. Many are expecting great things from the President Obama who promised great change. Hopefully, he wants change for the better, not just change for the sake of change. So far, there does not seem to be a great deal of difference between what we have seem for the last couple of decades with the Mid-East War continuing, bail outs and stimuli promise to be even bigger (He promised, "Trillion dollar deficits for years to come."). That does not give me a warm fuzzy feeling, but makes me feel like adding more precious metals which are bound to respond to the increased supply of dollars.

Let us look into the word of God more fervently to find His way for our finances. All of the cattle on a thousand hills, all the gold, and all of us belong to Him and were created to serve Him and enjoy Him forever. As we move farther into the New Year, let us renew our devotion and dedication to the Lord Jesus Christ.

Best to each, Doug



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