Thoughts on Markets

Friday, September 03, 2010

Boyz Return

The boyz were back in action over night in both gold and silver as the 24-Hour graphs show.


A.M. Kitco Metals Roundup: Comex Gold Down, Pressured by Better-than-Expected U.S. Jobs Data
Comex gold futures prices are moderately lower in trading Friday morning, pressured by a U.S. employment report that showed only around half of the U.S. jobs losses that were expected, along with stronger-than-expected growth in private-sector jobs. Gold traders are also taking profits ahead of the weekend and following recent good gains. December gold last traded down $12.40 an ounce at $1,241.00. Spot gold was last quoted down $12.10 at $1,239.50.
The August U.S. employment report showed non-farm payrolls declined by 54,000, compared to forecasts for a drop of around 120,000. Also, the June non-farm payroll decline was revised up. U.S. private sector jobs rose a stronger-than-expected 67,000 in August, with traders were looking for a rise of around 40,000.Would that we could believe all of the stats from the Federal Government, but then it is run by politicians and bureaucrats which have a vested interest, so what should you expect? HERE.

From The Daily "Yes, it's a Jobs Jamboree Friday, and here's the skinny on what I see happening today... First of all, you've just gotta love the way the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) now breaks out the "private payrolls" from the overall figure, so that people can see the census workers getting cut... Just think back when all those census workers were being added, there was no "breaking out" of those numbers... No way! The BLS, Gov't and media happily talked about all the "jobs that were being created"... Disgusting I know, but it's a Friday before a Holiday Weekend, so I'm going to leave that laying right there...

So... Here's what I see... The Overall number of jobs lost in August will total -100,000... But when the "private payrolls" are broken out, we see that the U.S. probably created around 40,000 jobs... And the Unemployment rate will probably tick up .1 to 9.6%...

Let's accentuate the positive here... And say, YAHOO for the 40,000 jobs created, right? Yes, we should... However, 40,000 isn't anywhere close to the number of jobs that need to be created to sustain a strong or recovering economy... So... How will the markets view this report, for that, my friends is the rubber hitting the road this morning. This is the way I see the government statistics. We must always take them with a lot more than a grain of salt and think deeply before we buy them outright. Governments are like politicians, in that, they lie.


Will South Africa's unions kill its mines?
Increasingly aggressive stances by unions are creating havoc in South Africa. At Northam Platinum, the union's "demand" of 15%, is in reality a ferocious 27%. Recall that the unions, environmentalists, regulation, and taxation killed most of our manufacturing and mining. The same can come to fruition in South Africa, as well. HERE


The gold debate: Will gold be as good going forward
Gold bugs have spent the last ten years in the sun but, in relative terms the price of gold is rather expensive now, how much higher can it go? The debate goes on. There is an interesting graph in the article. It is a good read. HERE.


Silver seen as safe-haven cinderella
While not for widows and orphans because of its volatility, a number of analysts expect silver's latest run, it is up15% so far this year, to have a bit more staying power
My vote is for silver in the long run, but with volatility which is not all bad. Often it gives us buying opportunities which would not otherwise be available to us. HERE.


As silver consolidates above $19/oz technicals look bullish
Considered a key resistance level, if the white metal remains above $19 an ounce more strength could be on the way. HERE.


The Conspiracy That Is The Federal Reserve
 How much money do you have in your wallet?
I’m not trying to be nosey. I want to make a very important point about what is wealth — and why what we call “dollars” have lost 80 percent of their purchasing power since I came kicking and screaming into the world. An interesting read. HERE.


Can You Hear Me Now? 17th Weekly Fund Outflow As Equity Fund Redemptions Accelerate
This is just getting silly: perhaps the next update on ICI mutual fund flows should occur if there is an inflow for once...ever again. Folks are bailing out of the mutual funds and that will provide more liquidity to fuel markets unless the dollars received are put into the "safe" Treasuries and banks as savings. The graph is worth the read. HERE.  

From in PDF:

In One Hell of a State (2)
In our Winter Warning of December 1, 2008 entitled as above, we concluded: “From the smallest to the greatest in size, many American states are seeking direct and immediate financial assistance of an historic magnitude, from the Federal Government.” Read it HERE.


Good News: A Declining Gold Indicator

The past few weeks have been bullish for gold, in its bullion form and as an embed in mining stock prices. We've touched on the differential volatility of bullion and mining stocks before, most recently in "Appraising Gold Miners' Equity Risk." In that piece, we compared the performance and volatility of the Market Vector Gold Miners ETF (GDX) and its components to bullion proxied by the SPDR Gold Shares Trust (GLD).
There's more than one way to obtain broad exposure to the gold mining sector, though. We, in fact, report on the performance of the GDX portfolio relative to its younger sibling, the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) in our Friday "Inflation Scorecard" columns. This is interesting and a good read. HERE.

The miners from

 The Currencies from

Some prices: FVITF 2.6653; GBG 2.14; SILA 0.76; TLT 103.55; DOW up 69 to
10386; SPX up 7.58 to 1097.66; Gold down 9.70 to 1241.60; Silver down 0.08 to 19.57.

Know that the Lord is in control and working all things for the good of His people who are truly His people. Remember King Jesus said that if you keep my commandments, you love me. If we don't keep them, we are showing that we do not love Him. One cannot keep His commandments without regularly studying His completed word in the Old AND New Testaments. We must regularly read the whole bible and not use it as a smorgasbord from which we select the verses we like and reject the ones that offend as too many do today. Those who practice this are either naive Christians or unbelieving pagans. We need the whole bible as the only rule for life and practice that we may develop the Christian World and Life view. 

Best to each, Doug


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