Thoughts on Markets

Monday, November 07, 2005

Gold Taking a Hit

Gold has fooled me again! From a minimum of 443.50 on 9/6/05, gold rose to a maximum of 478.50 on 10/12/05. Neither of these extremes have been exceeded during 2006.Gold was pushing and exceeded 470 during the summer - early fall. From there it was about 460 on 11/1; 463 on 11/2; just over 460 on 11/3; 457.20 on 11/4, and as I write it is up to 457.20 (up slightly) today.

The dollar bulls are having a hay day. The dollar rose against all currencies and is quite strong. How long the party will last, is everyone's question. Fundamentally, the dollar is in deep trouble from which it will not emerge without some serious consequences. The twin deficits and the tremendous level of debt can not continue forever.

The housing bubble is losing some steam as condos have been sold, but not yet built. It is beginning to look as if they will never be constructed. In many areas of the country, houses are not selling as they were. the increase in mortgage interest rates will not sustain the housing boom. Foreclosures are beginning to increase, too.

However, the dollar is going up! The time for the piper to be paid cannot be too far in the future. Therefore, gold is still the ultimate choice for preservation of capital by many. Inflation or stagflation is waiting in the wings. John Mauldin's "muddle through" economy continues.

I believe we are at or very near the bottom for gold. Some are predicting it could go as low as 425 or so. To me, that seems too pessimistic. It may well not see even 450 for a very long time.

Drooy is at 1.25 now. The low for the day is 1.23 and the high has been 1.28. I believe it is in a buying range for most people, particularly those who own neither gold nor mining stocks. Each individual must make his own investment decisions. After all, who is the person most interested in the success of your investments and savings? Think about it!

By the way, I have no vested interest in the items I discuss. I do not receive commissions or any other compensation for any of the items I discuss. Most of the time, I am simply showing others what I am doing in the markets. This may or may not be what you should be doing.

I study the markets, make my plans, commit them to the Lord, and depend upon Him for the results. This is the instruction we find in Ps. 37:5-7 and Pr. 16:3 written by the Sovereign Ruler of all. After all, He created us and everything. It is He Who provides the answers to the way we should live our lives.

Best to each, Doug

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