Thoughts on Markets

Tuesday, April 04, 2006

Gold Remains above $580

Since March 29th, the price of gold has been holding above $580. For the last 24 hours, the low was $584.40 at 4:59 today and the high was $590.40 at 10:17 today. It is presently at $586.20. Thus, from a technical perspective, the bull trend remains intact.

Silver over the last twenty-four hours had a low of $11.64 at 8:44 today and a high of $11.78 at 10:38 today. The new silver ETF will take about 25% of the current supply of silver off the market. Each new share is planned to account for 10 ounces of silver and will be sold above $100 per share.

For myself, I prefer the Everbank.com direct metals investment. It seems to me, that it will less expensive. However, that is my preference. What is your preference? One always has to deal his own presuppositions and risk tolerance.

The mining stocks are still trading at a higher level since March 29th. They have yet to begin the great run up as they will in phase three of the bull market. We are likely in the early stages of phase two which will continue as the precious metals stair step up with some smaller retraces and corrections.

The dollar received another boost toward the cliff as the dollar slipped lower still on Tuesday as Cheng Siwei, a vice chief of China's National People's Congress, was quoted as saying that "China can stop buying dollar-denominated bonds, increase buying of US products, and gradually reduce its holdings of US bonds." (as reported by gatacomm@aol.com today) This is scary news for the dollar. Even the thought of China backing off from purchases of US dollar instruments puts shivers down the spines of dollar bulls.

Have you ever thought about the story that gold is telling or will tell as the price rises? The message from a climbing price of gold in relation to the dollar is that the amount of un-backed dollars in circulation is increasing. The message is that true inflation is growing; therefore, as a result of the economic law of supply and demand, the value of the dollar is dropping. We see evidence of this as price inflation accelerates. The result is that it takes more dollars to buy things now than it did a while back. Thus, were gold to go to $1000 per ounce, as some are predicting, we should see a about 172% increase in the dollar prices we currently pay as we go shopping. For example, gasoline, which now costs about $2.45 a gallon, would be expected to go to about $4.21. Wages, on the otherhand never seem to keep up with the rate of price inflation. Many folks would have a very difficult financial time in such an environment. There definitely is a downside to the increase in the dollar price of gold.

With that on the horizon, it is wise to take advantage of the present time to prepare. I believe a large portion of our investment portfolio should be in physical metals: specifically, in one ounce gold bullion coins and pre-1965 US silver dimes and quarters. The early silver dollars are good, as well, but normally have a higher premium above the value of the silver content. To approximate the value of the silver content of these coins multiply the face value of the coin times ) 0.72 and then the result by the spot price of silver. For example, a pre-1965 silver dime would have 0.72 X 0.1 X 11.71 = $0.843. These coins in small quantities may be found at many flea markets. They are also available in bags of $1000 or $500 face value from various coin companies.

I strongly urge you to consider this. Make plans with which you are comfortable, then commit your plans to the Lord, and put them into action.

Best to each, Doug

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