Thoughts on Markets

Monday, November 13, 2006

China Speaks Out of Both Sides of the Mouth

One of the high Chinese financial officials spoke out about diversifying reserves again. Then he "clarified" the statement by saying that they were not leaving dollars. Asked about reducing gold reserve, his answer was to the effect, "Why should we sell gold?" My sentiments, exactly! The dollar bulls thought that the dollar would be stronger with his clarification. They seem to be grasping at straws of hope from any source.

I would suggest that the central banks of the world, including China, do not want a sudden and drastic drop in the value of the dollar. After all, a good percentage (though smaller now) of their reserves are in dollars and would lose value were such to happen. Thus, all are hoping for a gradual decline in the value of the dollar allowing each to ease out over time.

A sudden, drastic drop in the value of the dollar would be disaster for us as well. We must pray that the Lord will allow a gradual fall over time. That would allow us more time to find alternatives and acquire them without a panic rush.

Gold has backed off a bit from recent highs. For the last 24 the high was $632.40 on the 12th and the low, also on the 12th was $520.40. It is now $625.90. Kitco.com's 1-Year Chart still clearly shows that the recent break out is upward.

The mining stocks have backed off a bit. By the way silver remains quite strong. Both PAAS at 22.75 and SSRI at 25.04 are staying firm. Silver is constantly being consumed, while virtually all of the gold ever mined is still on hand. Gold has it all over silver in the monetary area, but silver's demand currently exceeds the newly mined supply.

The Fall weather here is very nice. The cool nights are great for sleeping and the recent rains have turned most yards green again. We have to mow again, but had most of the summer off from that exercise.

The Lord continues to bless in His time. We are often too impatient to just commit it to the Lord and wait for Him to deliver as He always does in His way and His time. Maybe He is teaching us patience.

Best to each, Doug

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