Thoughts on Markets

Sunday, September 30, 2007

America's Business is War

Richard Russell said that America's business is war. All of us hate war, but there is a lot of truth in his statement. For investors, this should mean to investigate defense and aerospace stocks. Richard suggests PPR which covers defense and aerospace. This, to me, seems to be an excellent idea!

The impact of America's historical and current business necessitates government spending. Of course, with the consumers maxed out with debt and rapidly losing value in their homes, their spending should be slowing. America is continuing the on the course of greater spending by the federal government pursuit of it's business. We are in a period in which one should expect ever greater inflation. The impact on the dollar will be an even greater loss of purchasing power.

Therefore, it seems that the damage to the dollar will receive greater recognition by foreigners. While some smaller countries have been bailing out of dollar reserves, there has been little impact on the dollar. When will some of those holding greater amounts of dollars, take the leap to escape an increasing loss of value. It is very likely that there has been some stealth bailing which has gone unnoticed by the media.

The run up of gold last week to 27 year highs is a precursor of a run to at least 800 before next year. We may be treated to an all time high by year's end or at least early next year. Gold is trading at 744.70 at present. An additional demand for gold will come about as the lemmings join in the party and create the third wave of the balloon in gold.

One must be very careful about what he wishes for, because there will be consequences. The consequence of higher prices for gold will be reflected in the price of all energy, food, clothing, and all the other consumables which we consider to be essential. It will mean a lower standard of living in America. Discretionary spending will drop like a rock. Price Inflation will escalate as a result of Inflation of the dollar.

We are already experiencing price inflation as we shop. Gasoline at the pumps has had a small reduction in the last weeks, but crude is above $81 now. That will trickle down to impact us as we fill the tanks. We are also moving into the time of the year when heating will be important and it is very likely to cost more this year than last.

What should one do? Each of us should pay off as much debt as possible and reduce discretionary spending. It is very important to put aside extra dollars to cover necessities and emergencies. After all, we should not concentrate all attention on seeking additional income. The most important part of personal and family finances is foregoing consumption to build up funds left over after all the bills and expenses have been paid. Don't focus on how much you can save by making bargain purchases. Rather focus on how much you can save by avoiding the purchase all together. Bargain shopping for absolute necessities is essential, but we should avoid making unnecessary purchases.

God's word provides great insight into frugality, wise spending, management of debt, and all activities of life. Read, study, and meditate on His word for all answers of life. The most important question for every one to face is as Jesus asked His disciples, "Whom do you say that I am?" The good news of His word is that all who truly seek Him will find Him and become one of His. The greatest discovery of all is that the Holy Spirit does the work within you to bring from the death in the sin nature you inherited from Adam into the eternal life in our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ.

Best to each of you, Doug

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