Thoughts on Markets

Wednesday, September 12, 2007

Gold Bouncing Around, But still above $700

As this first paragraph is written gold is down a bit to 708.80 and silver to 12.57.

Silver is lagging gold by a substantial percentage. Silver is a critical metal for virtually all electronics manufacturing and is being consumed at a rate which is producing an ever increasing shortage for the metal. The easily found and mined silver has been consumed. Now good silver is harder to find and much more costly to mine. The demand from India and China has made a quantum leap over the last few years. Both countries have and continue to consume a substantial amount of silver. At some point in time, this will have a significant impact upon the price of silver which goes well beyond the depreciation of the dollar. Silver may, due to these considerations, be a better long term investment than gold. However, it will be, primarily, demand driven and not for its use as currency, as is the case for gold.

Thus, I consider silver to be a great investment at the current price levels. Of our two large producers of silver, Pan American Silver (PAAS) and Silver Standard (SSRI), I am invested in SSRI. I like SSRI, because it has, price-wise, performed better than PAAS. In fact, several months to a year ago, the market price of the stock of SSRI sped past that of PAAS. Previously, PAAS had lead SSRI for years. Both are down at present; as follows, PAAS -0.41 to 26.31 and SSRI -0.62 at 34.28.

October crude oil reached an all time high of 78.23 yesterday. This will be clear to us at the pump and in heating oil prices. This happened in spite of the OPEC announced increase in the amount of oil produced. Another critical demand driven commodity, copper surged to 3.3994/lb.

The Realtors announced that existing home sales will decrease by some 8.2%. Recently, in San Antonio there has been an increase in the inventory of homes for sale. One can drive around and see more signs than in recent months. This is happening even though there is the new Toyota plant and Wachovia banking system. These and the supporting businesses kept the housing market alive here beyond the time the housing burst was first being felt.

Gold has lost a bit more to 707.30 and silver to 12.53. Some correction is to be expected as the run up has been significant and very rapid.

We must always trust in the Sovereign God of all to have the peace that surpasses all comprehension. His people enjoy the security that God-given faith provides even in what we see as the worst of times. We know that He is in control and loves us with a love from which nothing can separate us.

Best to each, Doug

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