Thoughts on Markets

Friday, May 22, 2009

Metals Up Dollar Down - Families & Churches are reponsible for our "Woes."

The miners are sprinting upward. Here are our traders: DROOY 10.15; HL 3.46; HMY 11.67; SLW 9.72, and VGZ 2.65. Don't you wish now that you had bought more? I do, too! However, I still hold all of them.

Here is another look at the metals and miners.
Gold headed for 960+ from all appearances. It was not slammed down at the usual time today. Maybe later. Remember, we are facing a long week end.
Silver seems under pressure. Perhaps, silver is the one to be pushed downward today. Of course, it is early in the trading day.

Folks,

Gold touched above 960 this morning. It has dropped off a bit from that, but has yet to be slammed down. The miners are surging ahead. I am thinking that it may not be the time for trailing stops unless you are sitting on a lot of capital gain. If you use them, do not use them on your entire stock of miners. I have too often been stopped out when I would rather stay in. In the use of trailing stops, you do protect some of the profit, but always run the risk of being stopped out. I am waiting for another strong spike upward to add more trailing stops. Then I might consider 10-15% trailers.

To be on its way to 1000, gold must hang tough above 960. There is always lurking behind stage, the bullion banks, central banks, and governments who are intervening to put a cap on the price of the precious metals. We must always keep this in mind. The Lord seems to be allowing them enough rope to hang themselves if they lose control of the metals.

Below are some interesting articles which are optimistic on the precious metals and very negative on the dollar. My prediction is that the dollar will not long be the only reserve currency in the world with the advantages thereof falling to the U.S. At the very least it will be one of the reserve currencies and sharing the honor and privilege with the Renminbi and the Euro. China has already made agreements across Asia and into South America to trade with the other nations in their own currencies or the Renminbi. Though these are small steps, it only takes a small leak in a dike to destroy the whole dike over time. That is precisely what is happening in the reserve currency arena. Note that the Fed did not cover the shortage in buying of U.S. Treasury issuances in the recent auction. The Fed does promise to buy more in the future. Why is this necessary? The international buyers have slacked off some recently.

From the Australian Business:

Gold visits old relationship with the US dollar


GOLD and the US dollar have moved back to their traditional inverse relationship lately, although some analysts say it remains to be seen how long this will last and how strong it will be.

Historically, gold tended to rise when the U. S. Dollar fell as investors turn to the metal as an alternative currency, and vice-versa. But that relationship went by the wayside for much of the last half year as both often moved inversely to the stock market, analysts said.

For instance, the US dollar index rose from a low of 77.688 on December 18 to a high of 89.624 on March 4. In the past, that might have pressured gold. But this time, June gold futures on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange rose from a December 5 low of $US748 an ounce to a February 20 high of $US1009.80. Read it HERE.

From Associated Press:

Gold prices climb to 2-month high as dollar falls

Gold prices jumped Thursday, rising above $950 an ounce for the first time in two months, as the dollar lost more ground against other currencies.

The precious metal has moved steadily higher in recent weeks amid weakness in the dollar. Prices are up 6.7 percent for the month. Gold benefits from a falling dollar because investors use the yellow metal as a hedge against inflation and a weak currency.

On Wall Street, stocks sold off sharply on disappointing jobs data, which touched off fresh worries about the economy. The Dow Jones industrials plunged nearly 190 points in afternoon trading, while broader market indexes lost more than 2.3 percent. Read it HERE.

From MineWeb.com:

US dollar continues to fall, gold at $950 as green shoots wither

As the dollar continues to fall and the economic recovery predicted by politicians still seems to be far away, gold has breached the $950 psychological barrier and remains the best wealth protector.

Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted: Friday , 22 May 2009

LONDON -

Market optimism appears to be waning, the dollar is falling and the prices of gold and oil are rising again as a consequence. The big question now facing the investments sector is whether the latest stock market downturn marks the end of the recent bear rally and the bear market in equities is about to re-emerge sending stocks to new lows.

The long-expected weakening of the dollar is emerging as the US Fed is seen to be pouring still more money into market stabilisation, yet there is still no sign of inflation being stimulated, which must be a major worry for the authorities who probably see controlled inflation as the way forward. Indeed the opposite is still occurring. In the UK for example the latest cost of living indices are falling ever faster turning recession into deflation. This is a frightening scenario given the billions of dollars, pounds and euros being pumped into the global economy. Read it HERE.

The Fed and Federal Government are still pouring fuel on the economic fire. It hasn't solved, nor will it solve the situation. Only the free market can bring a real solution. But banks and governments want central top down control and cannot tolerate free markets.

From Lloyd's List:

Half of all listed shipping companies may go bust

Paul Slater

MORE than half of the shipping companies with stock exchange listings could slide into bankruptcy or administration proceedings in the next year as their cash drains away, a senior industry figure has warned. Read it HERE.

This is an ominous sign of recession. Products must be shipped to be sold. Less shipping = less business.

From Bloomberg.com:

Dollar Is Dirt, Treasuries Are Toast, AAA Is Gone:
Mark Gilbert


May 21 (Bloomberg) -- The odds on the dollar, Treasury bonds and the U.S. government’s AAA grade all heading for the dumpster are shortening.

While currency forecasting is a mug’s game and bond yields can’t quite decide whether to dive toward deflation or surge in anticipation of inflation, every time I think about that credit rating, I hear what Agent Smith in the “Matrix” movies called “the sound of inevitability.”

Several policy missteps suggest that investors should stop trusting -- and lending to -- the U.S. government. These include the state’s pressure on Bank of America to buy Merrill Lynch & Co.; the priority given to Chrysler LLC’s unions over the automaker’s secured creditors; and the freedom that some banks will regain to supersize executive bonuses by giving back part of the government money bolstering their balance sheets.Read it HERE.

It seems that this man could come right out and say what he means. There is no need for beating around the bush.

History is moving the way the Lord wants it to go. He is sovereign! How wonderful it is to know the Sovereign of all. By the way, you should realize that it is not the Federal Government, the Federal Reserve, or any other civil authority which is the cause of our moral and financial decay. It is the direct fault of the families and churches of America who have failed to follow God's law and apply it to every aspect of life. For the Lord to bless America as He did in the past, the people of God will have to have a Christ centered world and life view. To do this, we must recognize the law of God as the supreme law of life. We must rebuild the City of God to replace the City of Man which America has become. Pray that the Holy Spirit will give the people of God the courage and wisdom to do this soon.

Gold is 957.50 and silver 14.67

Best to each, Doug





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