Thoughts on Markets

Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Gold and Silver Moving Forward

Here are the graphs on two silver miners. Silver Standard, along with Pan American Silver are two of the largest and best known miners. SSRI is above both 50 and 200 day moving averages, but seems to be testing the 200 day average at present.

Silver Wheaton is one of our newest trading stocks and has shown good upward movement during May. It has brought the 50 moving average above the 200 which indicates a bull bias.
Silver moved down some over night from about the middle of London trading, but is turning upward as NY trading gets further underway. Silver is now at 13.99 down 0.23 on a down tick.
Gold is following the same pattern of silver, but has rebounded more strongly. It is up 0.90 at 923.80 on an up tick.
The general market as represented in the DOW is already down 147.6 at 8322+. Looks like another down day in spades. Is this signaling the end of the bear rally? Maybe, but we will wait and see how the DOW finishes the day. The DAVFF (DIA Jun $84 Calls) are now trading @ 2.44-2.51. Mine cost 3.10 which was about the finishing price yesterday. These are calls on the DOW. I put them in place as the bear rally could continue a while longer.

From TownHall.com:

Race Talk
by Walter E. Williams

What to call black people has to be confusing to white people. Having been around for 73 years, I have been through a number of names. Among the polite ones are: colored, Negro, Afro-American, black, and now African-American. Among those names, African-American is probably the most unintelligent. Read it HERE.

Walter Williams lays it on the line. What fools we mortals be when we attempt to be politically correct. In fact, political correctness is a dumbing down process which is pursued by government for the express purpose of limiting the First Amendment on Free Speech. Remember the law which curtails free speech about candidates and issues as an election nears?

From MineWeb.com:

Rising gold price a "virtual certainty" - Adrian Day

Adrian Day and Martin Murenbeeld are positive on gold at the New York Hard Assets Investment meeting, but conservative on their growth estimates. Ian McAvity warned the audience to be careful what they wished for.

Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted: Wednesday , 13 May 2009

NEW YORK -

In separate talks to the New York Hard Assets meeting analysts Adrian Day and Martin Murenbeeld concurred in many aspects on their view of where the gold price was likely to go in the short to medium term and both were positive, but not inordinately so.

Day chose to compare the current global financial recession with the Great Depression and with Japan's more recent problems, pointing out that recovery in each case took many years not months. Read it HERE.

Of course, the price of gold is bound to go higher in terms of the unbacked currencies of the world. However, the real question is when will it go high enough to bring the limmings aboard in the third phase blow up? As the price of gold responds to inflation, there will be great increase in the prices of virtually every purchase we must make.

From TownHall.com:

The Blame Game
by Thomas Sowell

After virtually every disaster created by Beltway politicians you can hear the sound of feet scurrying for cover in Washington, see fingers pointing in every direction away from Washington, and watch all sorts of scapegoats hauled up before Congressional committees to be denounced on television for the disasters created by members of the committee who are lecturing them. Read it HERE.

The blame game started in the Garden of Eden and has continued and expanded, particularly, among today's politicians. Recalling the finger pointing in the Garden >> Adam blamed Eve who God had given him and Eve blamed the Serpent. This is apparent in our everyday life as we attempt to point the finger at others for our sins and errors. Of course, none of you have participated in this exercise of blame passing. We will each answer for each incident of finger pointing at the Great White Throne of judgment on the last day when the sheep of the Great Sheppard are rewarded with His love and the goats will receive the just reward of eternal Hell. All men are destined for eternal life, but only the sheep of the Lord will enjoy it. Be certain that you are among the sheep and not a goat.

From MineWeb.com:

Metals demand will return - but when? E&Y

The latest report on the global mining sector from Ernst & Young predicts a major new boom in metals prices as the world pulls out of recession - but is less definitie on how long this process will take.

Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted: Tuesday , 12 May 2009

NEW YORK -

Current dramatic declines in demand for most mined commodities, oversupply and rock bottom prices, will be short lived, according to a report from Ernst & Young entitled Mining and metals in adversity and prepared by E&Y's London-based Director of Mining and Metals, Dr. Tim Williams. The scenario described infers that the global mining industry, having made substantial cutbacks and drastically reduced exploration activity, along with other factors like declining ore grades and aging operations, will not be able to meet demand once manufacturing activity picks up. What is perhaps less certain is the amount of time it will take before the industrial upturn reaches the point where metals are again in short supply. Read it HERE.

China is rebuilding the infrastructure and has been increasing imports of raw materials. This is putting some pressure on demand, but we are awaiting a world wide recovery which is likely months if not years away. In the meantime we are seeing increased demand upon energy.

From MineWeb.com:

Red hot mining shares

Global top 100 miners, by value, have risen by 121% from lows seen late in 2008, and retain leadership of the recovery in world equities.

Author: Barry Sergeant
Posted: Tuesday , 12 May 2009

JOHANNESBURG -

Measured on a weighted average basis, the world's top 100 miners, by value, have bounced by 121% from lows seen in the aftermath of the September 15 2008 bankruptcy of Wall Street investment bank Lehman Bros., but remain 53% below high stock prices seen over the past 12 months.

By comparison, the MSCI world equities $, a benchmark for listed stocks of all kinds, across the planet, has risen 40%, or "bounced" from lows seen early in March this year. The MSCI emerging markets $ has jumped by 62% from its lows. The KBW banks index, which aggregates the performance of 24 US banks, has now risen by 129% from its lows, but a broader measure of 80 banks listed across the world has increased from lows by a more modest 98%. Read it HERE.

From Casey's Daily Resource Plus on Energy: "In the energy market on Tuesday, crude for June delivery pushed higher, closing at $58.85/barrel, up 35 cents. June reformulated gasoline fell 1.23 cents, to $1.6679/gallon.

Oil pulled back yesterday after advancing early 2.7% to touch a six-month high of $60.08.

Oil has rallied sharply, surging more than 70% from its mid-February low below $34 a barrel. Year to date, it has gained more than 30%, befuddling analysts who keep looking for the rally to turn around, as it “should” since demand still remains weak.

On the bullish side, China, the world's second-largest oil consumer, announced that it increased its imports by 13.6% last month, to 3.9 million barrels a day."

We are beginning to see this at the pumps. Gas in San Antonio has gone up to an average of about $2.15 for regular. I filled up last night at COSTCO for $1.999.

For America to really turn around, we must have statesmen to replace the politicians who have brought us low over the last 100+ years. We must have statesmen who are willing to stand on biblical principles and recognize that they are placed in positions of authority by the Ultimate Authority and required to rule and judge in accordance with His word. Pray that the Lord will raise up such men to bring our nation to repentance before the Sovereign God of all. Else, our nation will pass from history and be no more.

Gold is 927.60 and silver 14.13.

Best to each, Doug

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