Thoughts on Markets

Friday, June 19, 2009

Christians Hold a Long Term View of History

See the comment below by Ed Steer about the game the bullion banks, Fed Reserve, & Fed Government are playing with precious metals. The cap on the price of gold is amazing. The price of gold and silver would sky rocket were the markets free. The buying from "coke machines" in Europe is testimony to the fact that citizens are beginning to see the need for protection from the counterfeit money of governments around the world. Gold has been made very cheap by the latest intervention.
Gold is still bouncing off the 50 day moving average which is encouraging. We must continue to hold to a long term view of precious metals markets. After all, Christians have a multi-generational view and pass this from generation to generation as we walk in concert with our God.
Like gold the miners continue to bounce off the 50 day moving average. Here are some that I follow very closely >> DROOY 8.27; HL 2.59; HMY 10.77; SLW 8.64, and VGZ 1.67. These are all in good buying range for me. If you do not hold these, I suggest you look at them. These are great prices, but you must make your own decisions.
Silver may be the primary target for the manipulation, but silver is looking up a bit today.
Below, is the graph of the DOW. Note that the prices are below the 200 day moving average, but above the 50 day average. That shows a good deal of weakness. The 50 day average was moving upward, but has yet to cross above the 200 day. The purple line seems to be at a resistance level for the time being. Were the DOW to go below 8500 again, that would signal a much lower move. It seems that we are still in a bear rally with the longer term trend bearish.

More on the confiscated bearer bonds from the Daily Pfennig.com: "OK... It looks as though the story I told you about the other day, as a potential hoax, but wondered why the media wasn't covering it, regarding the $130 Billion in bearer bonds confiscated from two Japanese men at the Swiss, Italian border, turns out to be a non-event after all... The bonds, which at first were reported to be "real", are now being called fakes / counterfeit... So... So much for the secret war financing under the cover a dark knight stuff, eh?"

Another false rumor. In a way, I am pleased that the bonds were fake. This time, it was not a stealth action by our benevolent government of change.

Government intervention into the market place from the DailyPfennig.com: "I never said that! I said I didn't think having the Gov't involved in the regulatory matters in the markets was a good thing... I mean, we now have a Gov't that can... Sell you a car, maintain that car, finance that car, and provide you insurance on that car... It's all just beginning..."(Emphasis added)

Amazing that such can be the case in "the land of the free and home of the brave." Causes one to wonder if America really is that any more. Such is the case when man make the law as they please without a anchor in the word of God. How long, O' Lord? How long will men continue to ignore the constant unchanging Law-Word of the Supreme Ruler of all?

From MineWeb.com:

Top 100 global mining stocks - two tier market developing?

Mining stocks have been battered for a fortnight, but Chinese mining stocks have powered on and up, and now comprise nearly a quarter of the world's top 100 miners, by value.

Author: Barry Sergeant
Posted: Friday , 19 Jun 2009

JOHANNESBURG -

Since 3 June 2009, intra-day aberrations aside, overall prices for global mining stocks have sustained an overall downward battering, but in the detail, Chinese miners have continued to power upwards. Dollar metal prices have been having a tough time of it over the past fortnight, indicating that it could be that different sets of sentiment, and perhaps even fundamentals, apply to economic enterprises in China, the epicenter of global economic growth, and the rest of the world.

It may be that the significant power drives demonstrated by the prices of dozens of Chinese mining stocks have taken back seat, on "front pages", to the 5 June announcement by transnational mining group Rio Tinto that it was abandoning a near-USD 20bn deal with smaller rival Chinalco, opting instead for a rights issue to raise the equivalent of USD 15.2bn, and agreeing a USD 116bn joint venture with BHP Billiton over the two companies' West Australian iron ore assets. Read it HERE.

From MineWeb.com:

Silver stocks take a trashing

London-listed Mexican miner Fresnillo has seen its market value pull back by USD 2bn in the past fortnight, as selling hits silver bullion, and sentiment sours towards one of the hottest pockets in global resources.

Author: Barry Sergeant
Posted: Thursday , 18 Jun 2009

JOHANNESBURG -

London-listed Mexican miner Fresnillo's market value advanced from USD 1.1bn during the darkest hours of November 2008 to a peak of USD 8.7bn in the very early days of June 2009. Since then, there has been some kind of a trashing.

Fresnillo's market value has declined by nearly a quarter in just weeks, from a 12-month high, yielding a contraction of USD 2.1bn in market value. The sense of contagion has spread across the listed primary silver sector, in sympathy with a silver price that has declined from around USD 16/oz early this month to test, and break, USD 14/oz.

Typical headlines around on Wednesday included the likes of silver in a "one month trough" below USD 14/oz, on a weaker dollar and slacker investment demand. Sister metal gold bullion has also seen price declines over the past few weeks, but silver bullion and listed primary silver producers are classically behaving in a "beta" fashion, overshooting gold counterparts (in either direction). Read it HERE.

From theAustralianNews.com.au:

How deflation could make Japan a cashless society

WITH recovery elusive, a population doddering into old age and perhaps a decade of deflation in prospect, Japan may start mulling the most radical monetary policy of all - the abolition of cash.

Unorthodox, untried and, said one Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi strategist, “in the realms of economic science fiction”, the recommendation has nevertheless begun floating around Tokyo's corridors of power and economists have described Japan as particularly suitable as a testing ground.

The search for more unconventional economic policies continues, despite the recent surge in the Nikkei 225 index. The market may be reflecting soaring Chinese investment, rising consumer confidence and other cheerful data but economists see few long-term beacons of hope for Japan. Read it HERE.

From Ed Steer at Casey's Daily Resource Plus: "As I sit in front of my computer in the wee hours of Thursday morning, I must admit that I'm nervous. I can see every reason in the world why both gold ands silver should be moving much higher in price...but I can also see the '3 or less' U.S. bullion banks [backed by the Fed and the U.S. Treasury] ready to pound the hell out their respective prices. Will they use this IMF gold story as a club for that purpose? Who knows. But the story came out yesterday and had virtually no impact. Maybe 'da boyz' are saving it for today...or Monday. But as I've said before...sometimes I find myself looking for black bears in dark rooms that aren't there. Is this one of those times? We'll find out soon enough."

From Bloomberg.com:

Simon Halabi’s Companies Default on $1.9 Billion Debt

By Chris Bourke

June 19 (Bloomberg) -- Billionaire investor Simon Halabi’s real estate companies defaulted on 1.15 billion pounds ($1.9 billion) of bonds backed by nine London office buildings as the recession cut the value of the properties by about 50 percent.

The properties, including JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s offices at 125 London Wall and 60 Victoria Embankment, are now worth less than the value of the loans that back them, loan manager Hatfield Philips International Ltd. said in a statement today.

The buildings were valued at 929 million pounds as of June 8, down from 1.83 billion pounds in October 2006, Hatfield Philips said. Halabi’s companies borrowed against the buildings in 2006. The debt, which was packaged into bonds, expires in October. It’s the U.K.’s largest mortgage bond issue maturing this year, according to Bloomberg data. Read it HERE.

They and we are still not out of the woods from this financial fiasco. All of the stimulus of unbacked currency cannot bail us out. This is demonstrating to one and all that an economy based upon debt has no solid base upon which to build. It is a prescription for disaster. There is more to come.

Gold is trading at 934.10 up 1.80 and silver 14.27 up 0.08.

We must not put our trust in men. Only God deserves our trust. It is our responsibility to obey the convenantal God. It is our responsibility to diligently study His word to know how to recognize the glory that is His alone. We must dedicate our lives to honor Him, and thus, to enjoy Him forever. There truly is eternal life ahead of each of us. However, our perspective on the Sovereign God has everything to do with whether we will live with Him forever or endure the lake of fire. Both opportunities are real. Think about it!

Best, Doug



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