Thoughts on Markets

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Gold Jumps Upward - Bejing Replacing Detroit

Silver seems headed up, but not as rapidly as gold today. Silver is 13.75 which is down a bit from yesterday, but recovering now.
Gold has sprinted ahead to 942.40 up 4.30 now.

The dollar is showing mixed signals. The index has pushed upward toward the 50 day moving average, but has yet to break through. The 50 day average remains below the 200 day. The RSI in the top section of the graph is turning negative while the MACD in the lower section seems positive. Which way for the dollar. Possibly up in the near term; however, with the price of gold sprinting ahead, it would seem that the dollar will be lower today.
Below is a BigCharts.com graph on a speculative mining stock. The stock is diversified into several mining products. It has potential which should be worth a shot. I have purchased shares at 0.43 and 0.44. The price is such that one can purchase a great number of shares with little cash, hold for a double (if it comes), and then sell half to get his seed dollars back for future investments. For me, it seems to be worth the risk. Note the increased volume circled in red as the price increased. These are positive signs which could have been produced by hype, and time will tell.
Here are the miners again from Scottrade streaming quotes:
The miners are beginning to respond to the higher price of gold, but are a bit slow to move upward. The DOW is off about 20 at present to 9197.+.

From MineWeb.com:

EXCELLENT QUARTER FOR GOLD DEMAND

Q2 gold demand robust: Indian sales up and central banks net buyers

Despite an uptick in jewellery demand, gold had to shoulder a weighty burden of excess supply in the second quarter

Author: Rhona O'Connell
Posted: Wednesday , 19 Aug 2009

LONDON -

A recent piece on Mineweb carried the headline "Gold needs good news if it is to break through the $960 barrier". The latest issue of Gold Demand Trends, published by the World Gold Council using figures compiled by independent research house GFMS gives some good news, but illustrates also that the market still has some way to go before overall physical demand can again be regarded as truly vibrant, although some of the early necessary ingredients are there.

In the second quarter of this year the official sector was a net purchaser with a quarter-on-quarter swing of 66 tonnes (from sales of 52 tonnes in Q1 to purchases of 14 tonnes in Q2), while scrap supplies fell from a quarterly record of 566 tonnes to 334 tonnes in the second quarter. Mine production increased from 582 tonnes to 622 tonnes, although when dehedging is taken into account, net mine supply increased by just 27 tonnes, to 606 tonnes. This means that overall net supply fell from 1,197 tonnes in the first quarter to 940 tonnes in the second, although it was still some 16% higher than in the second quarter of 2008 as a result of higher mine production, lower mine de-hedging and increased scrap supply. Read it HERE.

From MineWeb.com:

SIGNIFICANT SUPPLY SHORTAGES WILL CONTINUE

Commodities supercycle still with us and stronger than ever

In 2007, she claimed the current commodities super-cycle would last another 20 years. But given the economic implosion since that time, could it still be true? "Absolutely," says Carmel Daniele, founder, CEO and CIO of CD Capital. Interview with The Gold Report.

Author: The Gold Report
Posted: Wednesday , 19 Aug 2009

VANCOUVER, BC -

"The crisis that occurred last year after Lehman's collapse just interrupted the cycle," explains Carmel Daniele, adding that it "is actually going to seal the next stage of the super-cycle. . .it will make it stronger and last even longer." Significant supply shortages resulting from both the current lack of money flowing into exploration and planned infrastructure spend by emerging countries will continue. Read it HERE.

From MoneyMorning.com:

Why Asia Will Supplant Detroit as the Global Center of the Auto Industry

By Martin Hutchinson
Contributing Editor
Money Morning

Asia is poised to become the “new” Detroit.

Here in the United States, at a cost of a mere $3 billion, the “Cash-for-Clunkers” program appears to have given new hope to the U.S. auto industry.

But that new hope is destined to be short-lived.

It’s true that - in terms of value delivered for the money invested - “Cash for Clunkers” has eclipsed every other stimulus program that has been tried. But the program has a projected lifespan of only three months, meaning it can’t reverse the powerful global forces that are destined to turn the U.S. auto market from leader to laggard on the global stage. Read it HERE.

From TownHall.com:

Whose Medical Decisions? Part II
by Thomas Sowell

When famed bank robber Willie Sutton was asked why he robbed banks, he said: "Because that's where the money is."

For the same reason, it is as predictable as the sunrise that medical care for the elderly will be cut back under a government-controlled medical system. Because that's where the money is.

My experience is probably not very different from that of many other people in their seventies. My medical expenses in the past year have been more than in the first 40 years of my life-- and I did not spend one night in a hospital all last year or go to an emergency room even once. Read it HERE.

From TownHall.com:

Is Racial Profiling Racist?
by Walter E. Williams

Harvard Professor Henry Gates' arrest has given new life to the issue of racial profiling. We can think of profiling in general as a practice where people use an observable or known physical attribute as a proxy or estimator of some other unobservable or unknown attribute. Race or sex profiling is simply the use of race or sex as that estimator. Profiling represents mankind's attempt to cope with information cost. God would not have to profile since God is all knowing.

People differ by race and sex. Let's look at a few profiling examples to see which ones you'd like outlawed. According to the American Cancer Society, the lifetime risk of men getting breast cancer is about 1/10th of 1 percent, or 1 in 1,000; and 440 men will die of breast cancer this year. For women, the risk of developing breast cancer is about 12 percent, or 1 in 8, and 40,610 will die from it this year. Should doctors and medical insurance companies be prosecuted for the discriminatory practice of routine breast cancer screening for women but not for men? Read it HERE.

Rest in the sure knowledge that the Sovereign God of all is in control. All things are working in accordance with His will. There are no accidents or surprises in His mind. Thus, we are strengthened by faith in Him and the assurance of eternal salvation through the death of His Only Begotten Son in our place. Yes, the Lord Jesus Christ took upon Himself the sins of all of His people to bring about a reconciliation for us with the Father.

Best to each, Doug

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