Thoughts on Markets

Monday, October 26, 2009

DROOY is a Potential Buy Around 6.25

There was another intervention on Friday. Notice how quickly the second phase of intervention was reversed by the buying demand. The same was true with silver at almost exactly the same time. Some question if this is only normal market activity. Many of us believe it is not. However, it seems that today the price of gold and silver has not been capped in concert with the first capping of Friday. Perhaps, we escaped capping today. Oops! I just checked the Kitco.com graphs again and found that the boyz are still at it. Here is a later 24 Hour Spot Gold graph. They did cap gold again at the same time.
This is an interesting graph of the Gold Bugs Index from TheGoldandOilGuy.com. He is using the trend lines of the higher lows to base his assessment of the direction of the mining stocks. The green shows the four possibilities he is suggesting. He is somewhat bullish on the miners.
We can see a very similar price movement on the Miners GDX graph, below. The RSI is mildly positive, but the MACD is definitely down. Perhaps, it is down only in the short term of the next two to three weeks. I still see evidence for a strong upward move in gold and the mining stocks at the end of December. The one detractor may be some year end tax selling. However, I believe that will not be the case this year in mining stocks as those who have held on will have profit which most will be interested in realizing it next year.
Contract gold continues to trade in a narrow range. The support at 1040 and 1020 seems to be building. There is very strong support at just below 1000. However, I do not expect to see gold at 1000 again for some time. The long term trend is without a doubt upward.
From MineWeb.com:

Gold building support above $1020 as dollar continues to weaken

$1,100 could be just weeks away

Author: David Levenstein
Posted: Monday , 26 Oct 2009

JOHANNESBURG -

Despite gold breaking through a major all-time high resistance level of $1000 an ounce, and trading above this level for several weeks, investors still don't seem to notice what is going on. Perhaps they are in denial or maybe they see things differently and believe that the US dollar is going to stage a miraculous recovery which is going to send the price of gold tumbling. While we are all entitled to our own opinions, frankly I cannot see any bit of news that may suddenly appear that could have such a powerful effect on the value of the dollar. I agree that the US dollar maybe due for a small correction, but this is not going to reverse its downward trend.

On Friday, the dollar advanced for a fourth day versus the Japanese yen and gained on the British pound after it was reported that the re-sales of U.S. houses jumped 9.4% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.57 million, the highest in more than two years. And, even though the greenback rose for a third day versus the euro, it is still trading above 1.5000. The dollar index (DXY), a measure of the U.S. unit against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, rose to 75.396, up from 75.047. Read it HERE.

The Euro is spending a good bit more time at just above 1.50 and is likely to exceed this as the dollar continues to move downward. Over night the Swiss Franc touched par with the dollar.

From MineWeb.com:

Recovery doubts, asset bubbles and hopes for a slower recovery

Why a more gradual recovery would be better for everyone but could be boring for commodities

Author: Geoff Candy
Posted: Sunday , 25 Oct 2009

GRONINGEN -

On Tuesday, the MSCI All-Country World Index hit its highest level since September 2008.

Up as much as 75% from their pre-crisis lows, stocks, including all manner of miners, have been buoyed not only by a firming belief that the worst of this crisis is over but, also by a rash of economic and corporate earnings data.

And, on Wednesday, expectations were that the UK would put out numbers Friday showing it was on the mend. But that was not to be.

On Thursday, markets took a little bit of a hit after China announced slightly worse than expected GDP numbers - the Asian superpower grew at 8.9% in the third quarter as opposed to the 9.1% some analysts were expecting. Read it HERE.

China continues to grow as a middle class of consumers has been developing there. Some suggest that the reports from China are manipulated. Of course, we know beyond a shadow of doubt that no government would massage the figures in reports to present to the public what the powers that be believe them to have. Even if China's rate grew at only 1/2 of the 8.9% reported growth at 4.45% would still be the strongest on earth today. So much for China having severe economic problems. Remember, their stimuli are coming from on hand dollar instruments and not debt. That is a leg up in any one's language.

From CanadaFreePress.com:

Recession, Depression, What Michelle Worry?

First Lady requires more than twenty attendants

By the staff of thelastcrusade.org

Update: First Lady Now Requires 26 Servants
“The world is a dangerous place to live; not because of the people who are evil, but because of the people who don’t do anything about it”
—Albert Einstein

“In my own life, in my own small way, I have tried to give back to this country that has given me so much,” she said. “See, that’s why I left a job at a big law firm for a career in public service, “ Michelle Obama

No, Michele Obama does not get paid to serve as the First Lady and she doesn’t perform any official duties. But this hasn’t deterred her from hiring an unprecedented number of staffers to cater to her every whim and to satisfy her every request in the midst of the Great Recession. Just think Mary Lincoln was taken to task for purchasing china for the White House during the Civil War. And Mamie Eisenhower had to shell out the salary for her personal secretary. Read it HERE.

Why not? These arrogant folks believe they are above the rest of us and readily take advantage of every opportunity to exhibit it openly.


From MarketWatch.com:

Gold futures are little changed as U.S. dollar falls vs. rivals

FRANKFURT (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures traded little changed near $1,055 an ounce Monday, as the market looked for direction following gold's recent strong gains.

Gold for December delivery edged down 80 cents to $1,055.60 an ounce in electronic trading on Globex.

Earlier, the contract nudged to an intraday high of $1,058 an ounce.

Gold "for the moment looks set to hold ground in the $1,040-$1,065 area, as traders continue to track dollar movements and broad risk sentiment," said James Moore, analyst at TheBullionDesk.com, in a note to clients.

In the currency markets, the dollar fell to a fresh 14-month low against the euro. A Chinese central-bank researcher called for moving some of the country's massive foreign reserves into euro and yen holdings. Read it HERE.

Russia's impending sale of gold may have a little impact upon the markets as it is likely that China will scoop it up as soon as it is put up for sale, if it ever is.

Here are out miners from Scottrade.com streaming quotes:
Here are the Currencies from Kitco.com:
BULM last was .87 (nearing buying range); BYDDF 11.24 (still sprinting); DROOY seems to be a buy around 6.25; DOW +62 @ 10033.7.

Regardless of what we think, God is controlling the markets for His glory. Up or down is His decision and we must thank Him for His watch over us. He is always working for the eventual good of His people. He exercises providential care over us for which we must express our gratefulness to Him daily. I trust that you attended corporate worship of God yesterday in a sound church which preaches the whole word of God and administers the two sacraments and exercises discipline over it members. That is important Jesus Christ and we must not neglect the "gathering together of the saints as in the practice of some."

Best to each, Doug

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