Thoughts on Markets

Monday, October 19, 2009

Precious Metals Correcting?

Folks,

I wanted you to see a very strong graph, so I chose BYD Company which is a great winner for which we are indebted to Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters). The RSI and MACD are very strongly bullish. The volume in the center section of the graph shows and increasing volume of trades. There are upward moving red trend lines revealing the strong bullish movement this year. I should have put the higher lows red trend line in another color, but it is projecting an immediate future price above $12. Such projections are based upon past movement and often are not immediately fulfilled. Beware of that. Were I to buy more BYD, I would look for a correction nearer the lower trend line if it comes about.

Our, now profitable speculation Bullion Monarch Mining is making a strong showing, as well. However, there indications of a topping along with gold hinted in the RSI turning downward. The MACD is showing further upward movement. Mining stocks are sensitive to the price of gold. After all, that is the main product of some, so this is natural. The upper red arrow shows that the recent and current prices are yet to confirm in concert with the Higher Highs trend line. The lower red arrows points to the bullish increase in volume of trades in the center section. Outlined with orange trend lines are 1) the trading range from which the price broke out in late May or early June, and 2) the trading range with the curren break out early October.

There are two higher lows trend lines which give us potential support should the price fall. Though both are trending higher, a correction in the near future would have to break below the 0.80 - 0.70 range before we should see much lower prices.

The stair stepping black trend lines reveal a reapetting pattern of higher prices. This pattern was broken with the last very strong break out. This stock remains for the time being in a strong bullish move.
Here is our 24 Hour Gold Graph from Kitco.com. Once again the is evidence of bullion bank intervention after the NY trading gets going at the red arrow, an once again this is followed by heavy buying at the green arrow. The demand for the metal is increasing as we saw during the last few weeks of trading.

Below is a longer term look at the movement of gold. Today's trading is indicated in purple, as the StockCharts.com graph is not updated until the close of business for each day. Both the RSI and MACD are showing signs of topping and a near term correction. Remember, I am looking for a high for gold and likely silver near the end of December, so there is certainly time for a correction here. It would also seem to be time for a correction in view of the rapid increase in price of the metals in the last two weeks. The upward trough shown with parallel red lines is very positive for the long run, and I am convinced that both gold and silver are firmly in a bull market. The black stair stepping trend lines show the pattern of the past movement of the price of gold over time.

The two lower red lines following higher lows for gold indicate that there is current support at 1020 and very strong support at about 970. I do not foresee any reason for gold to retreat below an intermediate support of about 1000. Gold seems to have moved to a higher plateau from which it will not retreat as it moves higher.
Our miners are following a pattern similar to that of gold which should be expected. The miners have not moved as rapidly as the metals, but they also have not moved corresponding down. The higher highs red trend line is encouraging, but not slanted upward as greatly as that of gold. Long term, the miners as the metals are in a strong bull market trend, and should provide handsome profits for us in the third phase of the gold market run >> The coming Gold Rush.
Below are the miners from Scottrade streaming quotes:

Here are the currencies compliments of Kitco.com:
Gold is currently 1054.90 and silver 17.50 with both on up ticks. BULM last was 0.93 and BYDDF was 11.08. I am watching SVM (Silvercorp Metals Inc) now and it is trading at 5.61. The DOW is +95.86 @ 10091+.

Have a great day and give God the praise and glory He deserves for His care of all and particularly His people.

Best to each, Doug

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home