Thoughts on Markets

Monday, October 05, 2009

Update on Metals & Stocks - Resting in the comfort of the Lord

Hecla Mining has been one of our star performers and is still holding well. It has established a trading range indicated by the red lines on the graph. Note that both the RSI and MACD are indicating an upward move beginning. That is good news. Silver has lagged behind gold for some time now. Of course, you must remember that the boyz are holding a vast number of silver shorts which exceed the amount of short in gold. This has overhung the silver market for some time. I still like HL and will be making some purchases if I can get it below $4.

DRD Gold, Durban Roodeport Deep has always had a special place in my portfolios. However, I am concerned about the recent price action. There has been a cloud over the South African mines of late. There have been occasional deaths in the mines, the unions have made demands from time to time, and there are always mine robbers to deal with there. Thus, some of this may have hit DRD and cast a shadow over its prices. Looking at the graph, we see both the RSI and MACD in upward bends. This is encouraging. With the price below $7, it seems very attractive. I am considering replacing some of my DROOY which was sold when trailing stops were hit.


Bullion Monarch Mining is our recently added speculation in the miners. The price has been holding well since it was added to our portfolio. Most of my purchases were in the 0.50 to 0.55 range. We took a blow and the end of the rising trend black trend line, but are still in the positive price range. I am encouraged by the very low volume as the price has dropped from the high. This is a stock with a low volume of trading, but one can notice the higher level of trading during the upward trend. Once the price of metals moves to the next level, I would expect the volume to pick up and the price to rise with the increased interest in all mining stocks.


BYD Co. has been taking some hits recently. This is a sound company in a good position in its field. However, some of the concern over the recent apparent topping of the bear market rally is pushing people to be more cautious. As noted with the black arrow on the graph, the recent down volume has been quite high. Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters) recommended selling a portion of holdings of BYD. This may have added some selling volume to that which seems to has been building as he has an excellent newsletter with a large following. The MACD is definitely indicating a further downward move short term. It appears to me that it will be some 5-10 days until the end of this correction if all goes according to past experience. Remember that I do not know the future and do not profess to. That is the exclusive realm of our Sovereign God.

The RSI is very low and is likely to be rising in the next few days. I would say we have an oversold situation. There is resistance at the three red lines. The resistance at $7 seems strong enough to hold or to at least slow further drop in price if it is reached.

I like the prospects for BYD Co and would be a buyer at or below $7. To me, it is attractive even below $8. It is my suspicion that this "correction" is a knee jerk reaction to Russell coupled with fear of the end of the bear rally. It seems that though many are saying the recent increase in the DOW is the beginning of a new bull market, there are a good number of folks seeing it as a bear rally which is coming to an end.

We could well be at the cyclical low for the precious metals that I have written about. It could well be that we have moved to a higher plateau of pricing in the 990 to 1005+ range. As the precious metals move upward, they have experienced higher trading ranges before moving forward again. These must be consolidation period in preparation for higher climbs. Gold has held above 1000 overnight and is now at 1006.20 on an up tick. By the way, notice that the price has held well past the normal boyz action point. Thus, unless they are changing timing, they are letting it go for the time being.
Silver is holding well and is now 16.30 on an up tick.
I trust that each of you joined in corporate worship yesterday as our God demands. Corporate worship helps us get in touch with the living God in His way. When corporate worship is centered upon the word of God and His sacraments, we meet with Him in a very special and wonderful way. The encouragement and loving confrontation in the fellowship of believers is a blessing to one and all.

We can rest secure and comfortable in the hands of King Jesus. Of course, He calls us to speak out and confront the world in many ways for which the world will reject and even persecute us. We are comforted in knowing that many have done so in the past and in so far as they suffered for the name of King Jesus, they were following in the foot steps of our King. This is all lasting joy.

Rest in peace knowing that He is in control.

Here are our miners from Scottrade's streaming quotes:
Gold is 1003.60 and silver 16.21 with both on up ticks. The DOW is up 45+ at 9532.86.

Best to each, Doug

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