Thoughts on Markets

Friday, June 25, 2010

McCrystal Fired by White House - Metals 2nd or 3rd Phase???

 Folks, The precious metals are getting more exciting. We are very near if not into the third phase. The transition from second to third is discussed in an article, below. Be sure to read it and study the graphs that are in it. When is time to buy gold and silver and miners? The question reminds me of a question to a gardening expert, "When is the time to prune." Answer was "When the pruning shears are sharp." Wise answer. The time to buy into the precious metals and miners is when funds are available and one is comfortable about it.;

Remember, we are only seeking to preserve what ever purchasing power we have and are losing with dollars.As Richard Russell always reminds, "Count the ounces you own, not the value of the metals." Mining stocks give the appearance of ending the coupling with the general market today.


Killing the Horse Midstream

"D-boys could be comically arrogant. When they'd gotten a list of potential target sites, for instance, the D-boys had divvied them up among different teams. Each was assigned to draw up an assault plan. Since his men were involved, [75th Ranger Regiment Captain Mike] Steele had sat in on the meeting when the various schemes were presented. The captain's experience with such a planning session was like this: You sat there and took notes and asked questions only to make sure you got things down correctly and then saluted on upper way out. The D-boys' meeting was a free-for-all. One group would present its plan and somebody would pipe up, 'Why, that's the stupidest thing I ever heard,' which would provoke a sturdy 'Fuck you,' which quickly degenerated into guys screaming at each other.

-- Mark Bowden, "Black Hawk Down"

This is a real put down of General McCrystal. I would rather to have not had the few instances of expletives. Read it HERE.

More on the firing of Gen. McCrystal from

General Madness

< class WASHINGTON -- Set aside for a moment how inconceivable it is that an article in Rolling Stone magazine could be the cause of anyone's being fired -- much less a U.S. commanding general in the midst of a war. But that is what happened this week. Gen. Stanley McChrystal is a tough, combat-experienced officer who knows how to fight. He knows how to kill the enemy. But he clearly doesn't get it when it comes to the media. His staff let him down -- badly -- by allowing Michael Hastings of Rolling Stone to hang around with a tape recorder.  Read it HERE.

From Patriot Post on McChrystal:


Friday, June 25, 2010

The Foundation

"[A] good moral character is the first essential in a man.... It is therefore highly important that you should endeavor not only to be learned but virtuous." --George Washington

Government & Politics

McChrystal Heads for the Exit HERE.


Merkel Defends Herself Against Criticism from Washington

Does Germany's savings plan threaten to disrupt the fragile economic recovery in Europe and elsewhere in the world? In an interview with a German public broadcaster on Thursday morning, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she had rejected such criticism from US President Barack Obama. Read it HERE


The Scariest Picture You’ll Ever See
What you’re looking at is a map of the 2008 Presidential election, broken down by the results in each county. If Barack Obama received most of the votes in a particular county, it appears in blue. If John McCain was the winner, that county is in red.

If you added up the land mass of every blue and red county you’d see something really striking—the Republicans won 80 percent of this country, when measured by acreage. John McCain got a majority of votes in 2,417,000 square miles of the United States. Barack Obama, by comparison, won in just 580,000 square miles. See the detailed map of the U.S. and read the article HERE.


Will Gold Miners Act Like Stocks or Gold During the Crash?

With stocks collapsing and Gold rallying to new all-time highs in both US Dollars and the Euro, the key question for precious metals investors is:
Will gold miners act like stocks or Gold during the Crash?

Unfortunately, there is no simple answer; it all depends on how you look at it. Historically, when the going is good, miners act like Gold. However, when things get ugly, they tend to act like stocks.
Let me explain…
As you know, over the last ten years Gold has rallied roughly 340% from $250 to its all-time high of $1,242 yesterday. Over the same time period stocks, as measured by the S&P 500, have actually fallen some 27% in value. That’s a heck of a difference in performance. There are some great graphs which explain the answer to the title HERE.


Interesting video alleges near crash of United Flight 901 HERE


In which phase of the gold bull market are we?
Gold is seen as transitioning from phase 2 to phase 3 in an ongoing bull market which still has some way to run
Author: Ronald Stoeferle
Posted:  Friday , 25 Jun 2010
VIENNA (Erste Bank)

A central pillar of the Dow Theory is the description of the phases of a bull market. According to Dow the three phases reflect the confidence of the investors:
- 1. Accumulation
- 2. Participation of the public
- 3. Distribution
The first phase is dominated by a drawn-out process. We think that this phase was happening in 1999 to 2003. At the beginning, only "early adaptors" are invested. The fundamental picture tends to be bleak, and there is a selling overhang. The longer this phase takes, the stronger the development in phases 2 and 3. For example, the oil price was traded within a bandwidth of USD 10-35 for more than 25 years. In 2004 it broke out of this range and increased to USD 147/barrel within four years. Something similar happened on the equity markets. The Dow Jones index traded within a bandwidth of 600 to 1,000 points from 1962 to 1982. The outbreak was followed by 18 years of bull market, which took the index to 11,700 points or +1,400% (annualised performance 16.5%). This is the nature of a bull market.  HERE.


Gold - the optimal investment in deflation and inflation
History shows that gold is an excellent performer in both inflationary and deflationary economic scenarios.
Author:Ronald Stoeferle
Posted: Thursday , 24 Jun 2010
VIENNA (Erste Bank)
The central question of whether the next few years will be dominated by inflation or deflation still remains unanswered. In periods of inflation, tangible assets are the preferred asset class, whereas in times of deflation, cash is king. Gold is liquid, divisible, indestructible, and can be easily transported. It has a worldwide market and there is no default risk associated with it, which means it is cash of the highest quality. Therefore gold is the optimal investment both in deflation and inflation. HERE.

 Miners from

Currencies from

We need to repent before the Living God of all and turn back to His ways.This is urgent!

Some current prices: FVITF 2.0334; BYDDF 7.95; SSG 17.45; TLT 99.12; TBT 37.45; DOW off 50 to 10103; Gold up 11.1 to 1254.50; Silver up 0.25 to 18.93.

Best, Doug


Post a Comment

Links to this post:

Create a Link

<< Home