Thoughts on Markets

Monday, July 05, 2010

Guns on Campuses - Silver - Gold - New Reserve Currency


This is a holiday blog posting. I am thinking that we may have a buying opportunity in the precious metals very soon. The prices are tempting at present, but could go some lower. There is a good possibility of an upward bounce in the general market on Tuesday; however, beware that it will be another short week with today as a holiday.

Guns on Utah's college campuses. I believe it to be a good idea. Perhaps, there will be fewer incidents like we have seen on school grounds. The Constitution does give citizens the right to hold and use guns for lawful purposes. One lawful purpose presented in scriptures is for self defense, protection of the family, and protection of the weak. Even many of those who are against armed individual in the US carry weapons for self defense or hire body guards with weapons. That brings their commitment into question. Read the article below.

The Mogambo Guru speaks on commodities. Then there are two articles presenting important views on Constitutional issues. Our forefathers with the providential care of the Sovereign God of all founded our nation on biblical principles as a republic. As Franklin said, We have given you a republic if your can keep it." We have failed to recognize this and to keep the Constitutional form of government they established. With the providential care and grace of God, we may once again have such a free and wonderful government IF we return to Him and the states have the desire to take their place as interpositioners. 


Appetite For Commodities
Richard Daughtery

I am always worried that I am not ready for something, like “Do I have enough ammo to hold off a horde of desperate people storming the Excellent Mogambo Bunker (EMB)?” which I soon realized was a stupid question since there is no “correct” answer; it all depends on when the crowd of angry, starving people, destroyed by the Federal Reserve creating so much money and the government borrowing it and spending it, decides, “We better not rush the bunker and try to get all his gold and silver because The Fabulous Mogambo (TFM) will shoot us and kill us, and then shoot at the people who come to take our bullet-riddled bodies away, and then kill them, too!”

I assume that kind of anticipatory thinking by mobs and crowds is caliber-related and/or firepower related, and I knew that I was, after quick reflection, “good to go.” The Mogambo Guru spells out the case for growth of commodities over the long haul as also supported strongly by Jim Rogers.  HERE.


US Dollar Unreliable Global Reserve Currency --- UN

Recently by Gerald Celente
The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs slammed the US dollar in a new report, saying it is an unreliable international currency and should be replaced.

The UN body recommends the US currency be replaced with a new global reserve regime based on a new supranational currency comprised of a mix of currencies from developed nations.
“People jumped out of the Euro and into the Dollar. That’s like leaving the Titanic to take a ride on Lusitania. They’re both going down. There’s a global financial crisis going on,” said Gerald Celente of the Trends Research Institute. This puts forth the case against the dollar as the reserve currency for the world, but points out to the problems which must be over come before that can happen. There is a reasonable verbal presentation on the second page which is worth a listenHERE.


Joseph C. Phillips

Independence and the Right to Private Property 

The right to private property was one of the central issues involved in the American Revolution. The colonists’ cries of “taxation without representation” were but protests of what they saw as an unjust taking of private property.
The Declaration of Independence charges the King of England with engaging in 10 acts of abuse, of which half are offenses against private property. Most significantly, the Declaration lists the pursuit of happiness as one of man’s primary inalienable rights. The founders believed that liberty, happiness, and property were inextricably tied together. As we celebrate July 4th holiday over the week end it is well to reflect upon one of the basic God-given rights that the founding fathers understood, fought for, and demanded in the Constitution. This is one of the basic requirements for a FREE Market economy. In fact, it is a requisite for any economy to thrive. HERE.


Sharp fall in gold price - buying opportunity or shape of things to come
Thursday's sharp gold price fall seems to have halted with some recovery seen but is this a good time to buy or will there be further big dips.
Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted:  Monday , 05 Jul 2010

There has been an expectation that any progress in the gold price would be volatile, but few probably anticipated the kind of almost vertical drop in price seen on Thursday where, at one time, gold fell around $50 in a few hours in U.S. trading, before stabilising.  It then recovered a little in Europe and the East and then moved up a little more back in the U.S. on Friday, although only after a small blip early on.
Such volatility can be scary for uncommitted gold investors.  The big question is whether this kind of volatility represents the start of a stair step downwards movement - similar to the upwards movement pattern seen over the past few months - or is a natural correction in the continuing bull market for precious metals. In other words, we are to expect a continuation of the volatile prices of the precious metals. The buying decision must be based upon each person's or family's risk tolerance, financial situation, and portfolio of investments.  HERE.


How does China really view gold?
Chinese officials have been making contrasting statements on how it views gold? What is the true picture?

It had been banned for decades - gold buying in China. But the Chinese government underwent a volte face last year, and urged the public to own physical gold, while China's gold reserves managed to breach 1,054 tonnes by the end of 2009.
While this immediately lifted the country to the world's fifth largest in terms of reserve volume, behind the US, Germany, Italy and France, the Chinese government appears to have gone to town recently to highlight its disinterest in gold.

China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange, better known as SAFE, reportedly said that ``the gold market is too small, illiquid and volatile to be considered suitable for asset allocation.''

But, the Chinese administration's attempt to downplay the role of gold should be seen in the context of the fact that the country has nearly doubled its gold holdings over the past seven years - most of it very surreptitiously. For some time now, China has been doing its best to corner world gold supplies. HERE.


Long term copper looking good as China, India drive demand - SocGen
Long term copper supply concerns and BRIC country demand dominance bode well for copper over the next few years.

Copper prices fell 17% in the second quarter of 2010. And, the consensus is that much of the fall can be attributed to investor worries about the extent of the recovery currently underway in the US and Europe as well as concerns about a slowdown in growth out of China.
Speaking to Reuters earlier this week, Peter Buchanan, commodities analyst and senior economist at CIBC in Toronto said, "Data touched three of investors' major concerns yesterday, namely the outlook in China, the U.S. consumer, and also the euro zone pressure as well," HERE.


Is a U.S.- China Economic War On Its Way?

The tone of U.S.-China relations, as evidenced by General Electric CEO Jeff Immelt's provocative colonization' blast, is deteriorating rapidly and signaling trouble ahead. Given the importance of this relationship it would be very helpful to understand what's at stake and how events will play out.

Chimerica: The World's Most Crucial Relationship
The most important bilateral economic and political relationship in the world today is arguably the one between the Chinese and the Americans. London School of Economics Professor Niall Ferguson coined the term "Chmerica" to characterize its interdependent nature.

The U.S. currently has the world's largest economy and most powerful military, and the U.S. dollar is the world's reserve currency. China is the fastest growing large economy, and the holder of approximately $1 trillion -- or about 50% -- of all foreign held U.S. Treasury debt. In my opinion, the US is playing with fire as there are those here in government and places of leadership stirring the pot of trade barriers against China. Too often trade wars can easily escalate into shooting wars and we do not need that. We have too much of that now!  HERE.


Handguns on Campus Make Utah Colleges Model After Court Rulings
Students at Utah Valley University and other public colleges in the state are free to carry concealed handguns on campus if they have a permit. Nick Moyes is one of them.
“It’s about self-defense, the ability to defend yourself,” said Moyes, 28, a student who brings his Sig Sauer P-226 9mm handgun onto campus in Orem, Utah, every chance he gets. “That’s a God-given right.”
Moyes’s pistol-packing privilege has nothing to do with the U.S. Supreme Court ruling June 28 that will likely be used to attack gun laws across the U.S. In 2007, Utah said holders of concealed-weapons permits like Moyes may bring such weapons onto campus, providing that right long before the justices ruled.

Now, states including Michigan and Colorado may find themselves following Utah’s lead as gun advocates file court challenges and propose legislation to scuttle existing bans on weapons on campus. Driving future efforts will be the Supreme Court’s ruling, which extends the federal right to bear arms to states, said James Jacobs, a law professor at the Manhattan campus of New York University and author of a gun-control book. This is an idea which has merit. It is encouraging to see states continuing to oppose the Federal Government. After all, they were left as sovereign states under the Constitution of THESE United States. They were to interposition themselves between the Federal Government and the citizens of the each of the states. Would that that would become more true today. HERE.

Now is the appointed time and opportunity to return to our God by submitting ourselves to King Jesus in obedience to His word. Let's purpose to do this while there is still opportunity to restore our nation to what it once was. It was a light to the world and salt of the earth for a few decades. 

Let us pray for one another, giving emphasis to the household of faith, but extending our prayers to others, to our governmental leaders, and to the world leaders. Pray that all will return to a Christian world and life perspective and play it out in every area of their lives. 
On first step is to never neglect the gathering together of the saints on each and every Lord's Day are we are commanded. I trust that each of you took your families to worship service yesterday. We must not neglect this opportunity each week.

Best to each, Doug



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