Thoughts on Markets

Monday, November 28, 2005

Gold at $500 >> Christmas Present?

I hope and pray that each of your had as great a Thanksgiving as I did visiting grand and great-grandchildren. It was a time of sharing what the Lord has and is doing in our lives and giving Him the praise and thanks for them. Let's always give Him the glory by having a continual attitude of thankfulness toward Him.

Wow, I go out of town for a few days and gold takes off. It has been bouncing from $498+ to $494.20 as this is written. Will it go to $500? Yes, I believe there is no doubt. Will it break $500 by Christmas? This seems very likely.

When gold moves up a notch or so, many folks wonder if it is too late to get on board. Whether you now hold investments in gold is at the root of this question.

If you are into such investments, the question is somewhat more difficult to answer. The decision must be made as to the portion of the investment portfolio in any particular sector of the market. More simply, how much of the portfolio should be in physical gold, gold mining stocks, or even gold mutual funds.

One must always be comfortable with his investment portfolio. That is, one must be able to sleep comfortably at night and not spend the day worrying about investments. Each must weigh his investment risk level. Every investment has a risk, and even not investing carries a risk. Not investing has the risk of opportunity loss. In other words, one can not profit from an investment gain without investing. He will lose the opportunity for profit.

On the other hand, if one is without any investments in these areas, one must decide for himself if he should invest in gold at all. For me, this is a no-brainer. Gold is a hedge against the devaluation of paper currencies, such as the dollar. Ask yourself, "What is the value of the full faith and credit of the government which backs the dollar?" To determine this, one must look at the how the purchasing power of the dollar has held up since 1971, when a cup of coffee was widely available for five to ten cents. The full faith and credit of the government backing the dollar has given up greatly less purchasing power compared to the past. And remember that our government is head over heals in debt to the world. Any business so indebted would have long ago declared bankruptcy. How much do you trust the dollar? That is a question you must answer for yourself.

Looking at DROOY, since Nov. 14th, it has traded in a range of a low of 1.41 and a high of 1.53. Currently it is 1.43. A week is a bit shy of the time to establish a trading range. However, it seems the range will be higher this time around. Later we will be able to define the new range.

It was great to get away, but always great to get back home. The future remains in the hands of our Sovereign Lord. Let us always rest in this great assurance. He loves and cares for His people.

Best to each, Doug

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