Thoughts on Markets

Monday, July 31, 2006

Gold is Resuming a Climb

For the last 24, gold hit a high of $639 yesterday at 6:08 pm and a low today of $628.40 this morning at 10:34. It is now at $363.40. It has seen a number of peaks and valleys through out today's trading. By the way, one year ago on August 1, 2005, gold was a bit under $440. That is encouraging, is it not?

Governments, particularly the USG, must be putting the pressure on to keep the price under "control." They dare not lose control, else the cat would be out of the bag and more folks would realize the smoke and mirrors of unbacked paper currencies.

Without the intervention where would gold be today? I would suggest that it should be about $900 to $1000 per ounce. That seems very reasonable with the loss of dollar purchasing power.

By the way, unless you are blind, it is obvious that the consumers are spending less and the lenders are in deep trouble as their business dries up from the frenzy of the last few years. We likely have seen the last gasp of the ARMs. As the Agora Wealth Seminar speakers said, "It is farewell to ARMs." Unless you are blessed with a fixed rate mortgage, look out.

The housing bubble is beginning to lose steam. One can hear the hissing as the for sale inventories rise in most parts of the country. Some are much higher percentage wise than others. If you are trying to sell now, you will likely have to take a lower than anticipated price, but the prices are bound to go lower without a drastic increase in demand which I do not see on the horizon.

If you are in the general stock market, I believe you should be in natural resource, mining, and defense stocks. Were the War on Terrorists wind down, the defense stocks could take a beating. There seems to be no end to this war. Certainly, there is no defined end.

Best to each, Doug

1 Comments:

  • At 10:25 PM, Blogger Regina said…

    I'm a young dad and investor, and my family's savings is mostly in mutual funds. I'm getting the feel from your blog that you believe investors should invest primarily in gold in order to avoid relying on the dollar. Is that correct? I'm just asking because I'm new to investing and only know what my grandfather taught me about the stock market and my own personal research. If I did invest primarily in gold, how would I keep my portfolio diversified?

    Thanks

     

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