Thoughts on Markets

Thursday, October 11, 2007

Gold at $751.20 on a Tear!

Well, we did not do enough buying of the mining stocks during the correction. Gold is spanking us now and has begun the next upward move. How high will it go this time before the next correction. One of these times there will be no correction and it will blow out all previous record highs. That is the move which will attract all the late coming lemmings.

The dollar has gotten on the down elevator again. It is down against almost all other currencies, as well as the natural resources. I believe the government officials have backed off from their proclamations of how they are working toward a strong dollar. Even the rhetoric has been absent of late. The Federal Reserve and the Federal Government have decided to sacrifice the dollar to salvage what can be gained from the housing bust and the resulting impact upon the financial industry. There is much more of this to come before it settles down with business back to normal. Whatever normal is!

The British pound sterling is suffering from the housing bubble burst, too. The pound is not enjoying the extensive runup in value it has recently had. It is just over $2 now. Conversely, the Australian dollar is approaching parity with the U. S. dollar. It is about $0.90+ now. The Euro is about $1.422 and feeling its oats today.

The financial stocks of banks and mortgage companies are falling as the DJI increases. The continuing reports of layoffs of employees and write off of bad loans are flowing daily in the media. When will it end?

Both the Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen are supporting the carry trade with very low interest rates. The carry trade involves the big boys borrowing currency from these low interest banks and then trade in terms of higher interest instruments which provide a profit differential. They then collect the difference to pay off the low interest lows again, again, and again. UNTIL, at some time in the future, when they are caught as the low interest sources dry up completely. The day will come and that is the risk they take. What a neat game as long as it lasts.

The mining stocks are on a roll. AGXM 1.16; CDY 1.88; DROOY 8.3399; EGO 6.92; GFI 18.90; GSS 4.33; HMY 10.40 (still suffering from the mine cave in); IAG 8.81; KGC 16.55; KRY 3.00; MRB 5.27; MRB 5.27; NEM 47.63; NTO 7.38; PAAS 31.29; SSRI 39.78; and XRA 4.1001. The bullion investment CEF is 9.95. The day has started well for this area of investment.

We will have to see what Friday has in store for us. Until tomorrow keep your focus on Jesus Christ who is our Lord and Savior.

Best to each, Doug

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