Thoughts on Markets

Friday, October 12, 2007

So Much Action, So Little Time to Write!

Wow, the markets are frothy these days. In energy, crude for stretched to 83.32 during yesterday and closed at 83.08 up again. The demand for crude is very high world wide. America's reserves were lowered again dropping supply. All the more for pressure on the price.

There was much, short lived, rejoicing on the narrowing of the trade deficit, but soon it was realized that we would be well above 700 billion for the year. This does not bode well for the dollar which is sliding down the slope again. The Euro seems destined to reach 1.45 in the very near future given that the situation does not change. In fact, it is looking more and more like it will exceed that figure as the dollar continues its drop.

The mining stocks are picking up steam as the demand for gold increases world wide. With the advent of the Sovereign Wealth Funds of several nations flush with dollars, some of these seem to be flowing into the precious metals. The Exchange Traded Funds in precious metals have certainly added to the demand. The U. S. fund GLD and the Canadian CEF are big consumers of the metals. Several similar funds in other nations compound the demand. Demand is growing in China and India, as well. Thus, we will see higher prices on both gold and silver. By the way, silver is beginning to show signs of a big move to catch up with gold and platinum.

Gold is currently 747.50 and silver 13.763 Both are down a bit today. The cartel is at it again shorting gold. This was explained in prior posts. One of these days, they will get caught when they lose control.

The mining stocks for the most part are up again today. Our silver stocks are performing rather nicely >> PAAS @ 30.41 and SSRI @ 38.18. Those of you with higher risk tolerance might consider January or farther out call options on PAAS. You might even risk out of the money calls to add purchasing power. PAAS hit 32.46 earlier this year and should break that high in the not too distant future.

The DJI is up 79+ to 14065+ now. It is benefiting from the slush of liquidity. The SPX is up almost 6 to 1560+. The earnings reports coming in have not been as good as was anticipated. If you are still interested in the general market, other than, energy, natural resources, and defense stocks, it seems wise to consider those corporations with extensive international income. This will provide the potential of profit for the fall of the dollar as well as from earnings. Select those with consistent dividend experience over time. I would suggest that you buy in on dips, if you are bound and determined to buy.

My father used to quote from I think, Ben Franklin, "Neither borrower, nor lender be." He had been through the depression and never forgot the lessons learned from it. He avoided debt whenever possible. He was frugal and saved to make the necessary larger purchases with cash. Thus, he avoided the burden and additional cost of debt.

In contrast to today, it seems that we are borrowing to keep consuming. We fall into the trap of impulse buying on credit, because we are fascinated with the shinny object of our desire or to keep up with the Jones next door. Where is the frugality in this? It is a foolish and deadly financial trap into which we are placing ourselves. Keep track of your spending for one month and see where your dollars are going. You will be surprised and see a number of ways to cut spending without depriving yourself of necessary items and services.

We are approaching the Lord's Day which is a day of worship and rest for the people of God. A very important part of that day is to join in corporate worship of King Jesus. He requires it and it is up to each of us to join in the worship and fellowship of the household of God. How often, Jesus said while He was on the earth as one of us, "If you love me, keep my commandments." We must remember that He is the author of the whole bible, not just the text in red.

Best to each of you, Doug

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