Thoughts on Markets

Wednesday, March 04, 2009

Because of Man's Failure - Governments Attempt to Fill the Gap

God told the first man and woman in the Garden of Eden to take dominion of all of creation and to be fruitful and multiply. Today, most men are failing to do this, so the governments of the world have moved into the vacuum generated by man's failure. Governments are always seeking ways to expand, so this is a natural consequence. Thus, we are reaping what we have sown. Governments are always clumsy in all areas, thus the consequence results in larger, more expensive governments which daily intervene unconstitutionally in the daily lives of citizens and businesses.

The Godly government exists for the purpose of protecting the life, liberty, and property of citizens. It does not regulate their daily lives. Let us pray that God will call us to repentance and a returning to Him. Then we as individuals and families can be about the work of spreading the good news of the Gospel of Jesus Christ our Lord.

Above, is the 2 year graph on the gold trust GLD. From a double bottom (bullish signal), the move has been upward with higher highs and lows forming a strong upward trough (another bullish signal). Trends continue until they end. One would think that GLD (a proxy for gold) is presently oversold. It is likely that the upward trend will continue or resume very soon.
In the AMEX gold bugs index, above, we see a pattern similar to that of GLD. However, there has been this week a rather substantial drop below both moving averages (a bearish signal). The steepness of the recent drop would tend to make us believe that the correction has been overdone. That is one reason why I am interested in adding to my portfolio of more of the trading miners. Here are the last trades in each: DROOY 8.04; HMY 11.30, and VGZ 1.80. Of the three, presently, I am a buyer of HMY at below 11.30 (Bought @ 11.27), and could be of DROOY < class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_11">VGZ < onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigA5zKEcsxIA_x49xHreyzufTYOxjCZZbew5Vn4D7JHl64dLk9a2ddpACsrDxcLjpENNlHDoeVYoprQMIbNxZia2iyZeXv2A89M-fXS-8kvW6qj9s0rUX-r7XK1NOzhZlb3jFt0g/s1600-h/24+Hour+Silver.gif">
How obvious is the intervention. The patterns are very similar and almost always at exactly the same time each day in the same market, too.

From Town Hall more from Constitutional Economist Walter E. Williams:

Government health care advocates used to sing the praises of Britain's National Health Service (NHS). That's until its poor delivery of health care services became known. A recent study by David Green and Laura Casper, "Delay, Denial and Dilution," written for the London-based Institute of Economic Affairs, concludes that the NHS health care services are just about the worst in the developed world. The head of the World Health Organization calculated that Britain has as many as 25,000 unnecessary cancer deaths a year because of under-provision of care. Twelve percent of specialists surveyed admitted refusing kidney dialysis to patients suffering from kidney failure because of limits on cash. Waiting lists for medical treatment have become so long that there are now "waiting lists" for the waiting list.
Read the article HERE.

Is that what we really want? That is rationed health care managed by the bean counters, not the physicians. One only needs to look around for the successful government programs. Can you find any? There could be one or two, but I have trouble finding even one. After such a survey, do you really want government to run a national health care program? I do not! It would be in trouble from day one and each month or year, the government would attempt to solve all the problems by spending more dollars. After all, every government program fails and the government solution is always more dollars. Dollars the bankrupt federal government does not have.

Here is good news on one of my core holdings from MineWeb:

GOLD NEWS

HIDDEN VALLEY, DOORNKOP ON TARGET

Harmony Gold on track to being debt free and mining more gold

South Africa's No. 3 gold producer, Harmony, is well on track to reducing its net debt to zer by the middle of the year opening its doors to further expansion and the revival of its dividend.

Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted: Tuesday , 03 Mar 2009

TORONTO -

In an interview with Mineweb on the fringes of the PDAC Convention in Toronto. Harmony CEO, Graham Briggs, confirmed that the company was well on the way to meeting its target of being debt free by June. Helped by some good operating results and the strong gold price, the company is recording some excellent figures having succeeded in getting to grips with many of the operational problems which had been besetting it over the previous few years. Read the entire article HERE.

This is very good news. I sincerely hope and pray that the company will be able to become debt free by June as reported. That will provide more stability to a very good company. I am looking to add some more HMY to my core holding. It is one of our trading stocks. I consider it a good buy below $12.00 and look to add around $11.50.

Here is more good news from MineWeb:

INVESTMENT INSIGHTS

Gold stock prices shoot up towards the stars

Prices for twenty selected gold stocks have risen by nearly 500%, on average, in the past four months.

Author: Barry Sergeant
Posted: Monday , 02 Mar 2009

JOHANNESBURG -

While the MSCI Barra dollar index for global equities has fallen 55% from its highs, seen in October 2007, and is busy scraping new lows, 20 selected gold stocks have risen by nearly 500%, on average, since lows seen four months ago. This set of gold stocks is also some 55% below highs seen earlier in 2008, but investors with foresight, or luck, or both, who switched into these and many other gold names, would have scored heavily.

For comparison, the world's top 100 miners by value have risen 60% from low prices, but sit 67% below high prices. The value of listed gold stocks is underpinned by strong dollar gold bullion prices, which were recently looking to test the all time record level of just above $1,000 posted during March 2008. Seen on a comparative and relative basis, gold stocks currently rank as the world's best-performing wider equities sub-sector, with an aggregate market capitalisation, or value, of more than $220bn. You can read the article HERE.

I mentioned, yesterday, that the price of mining stocks has begun to decouple from the metal, itself. This is normal as the price of the metal remains high are begins to rise exponentially. As the third phase which becomes the Gold Rush progresses, this becomes ever more apparent. We have yet to see the third phase which should take gold to new highs.

From Ted Butler of Investment Rarities:

TED BUTLER COMMENTARY

March 3, 2009

The Smoking Gun, Part II

Once again, the recent sell off in silver is explained by the market structure on the COMEX. Once again, clear new evidence of manipulation has been presented. Once again, this evidence is contained in the CFTC-issued Commitment of Traders Report (COT), rendering the source data as reliable.

The most recent COT, for positions as of Feb. 24, indicates another new manipulative milestone. The "true net" concentrated short position of the four largest traders rose to the highest level in history, some 72.5% to 76% of the entire COMEX silver futures market. Not only is this the largest market concentration in silver, it is the largest concentration in any commodity futures market, long or short, ever.(Color Added)

In a moment, I will explain how I derived at this calculation, but first you must understand that four or fewer traders controlling 72.5% or more of either the long side or short side of any regulated commodity futures market is a de facto manipulation. It is not possible for it not to be manipulation. It would not matter a whit of difference whether this was a naked or covered short position, or some type of hedge, as that level of control would still constitute manipulation. Read the article HERE.

For those of you who tend to deny that there is intervention in the precious metals markets, this article gives more evidence. However, the mining companies and the regulators of the markets ignore this. I imagine that the manipulators are too powerful for any serious opposition. However, the manipulation is costing investors vast sums of dollars. The free market would always handle these situations better in the long run. Too bad that we left the capitalistic, free market decade ago.

Reports are very prevalent that GE is facing bankruptcy. WOW! How much worse are things going to be?

The DJI are up 61.67 to 6785.44. Note: this is still below 7000 and may well drop much farther. We may not be at the bottom yet. It is still CRASH MODE.

Best to each, Doug


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