Thoughts on Markets

Thursday, August 27, 2009

Bible Instructs in Investments - Gold Hit Again by Boyz

Before we get to the markets, it is important that we keep our focus upon the Sovereign Ruler of All, King Jesus. It is faith in Him which enables us to accept and apply His word in all of life. IN Proverbs 27:23, 24a, we are told, "Be diligent to know the state of your flocks, and attend to your herds, for riches are not forever. . . ." Many of us have neither flocks, nor herds of animals to produce income. However, the principle is clear, we are warned to be diligent in our work, as well as our investments. We are to look after them well, to be sure that they will supply the income to support us an our families. This is an important concept, but it is not to be the center of our lives, that place belongs to King Jesus. As we work, as we study, as we apply what we learn, we must always have an attitude of gratefulness to Him for whatever He provides for us. We can rest in the fact that nothing in heaven or on earth can separate us from His love. What a blessing He is to each of His people. Praise Him daily!


Well, obviously to most of us the boyz are back at work and have been for the last three days. Look at the "coincidence" of the drops on three consecutive days just as the NY opens. Think about it. The precious metals are not be allowed to reach their free market prices. One must have his head in the proverbial ostrich position beneath the beach surface to hide from this truth.
Adding to the "coincidence" is the same pattern on silver. Same deal here!
GLD, our proxy for gold, is showing negative signs for the immediate future. A wedge was formed since near the end of June, and it is shaping up in a technical way that portends negatively for the immediate future. Both RSI and MACD are neutral, at best, but negative in reality. Thus, I expect gold to correct for now. Long term, the bull is in control, but we could experience a set back now and into September.
The miners are in a trading range, as shown below. They have again approached the 50 day moving average and look to be moving below it very soon. The RSI and MACD are neutral to negative. Thus, the coming correction in gold, is tending to impact the miners, as well.
IAG is one of our stronger miners. However, even it is showing negative technicals. It does remain comfortably above the 50 day moving average. This is a positive sign and it may continue in spite of a potential downward move. I would like to add to my holding in IAG around 10.50, but wonder if it will go that low before the fall rally begins.
Here is the graph of HMY which is not a nice graph. HMY has been in a trading range of about 8.50 to 9.70 since early July. It moved to a higher low side trading range at the end of July which is about 9.00. I would be a buyer of HMY below 9.00 as I would like to add some more to my portfolio.
DROOY is showing a sad face for us, as well. The 7.00 low of the trading range seemed to be quite secure. However, the recent moves are rapidly pushing the price toward breaking below 7.00. I would see a break to around 6.50 as a reasonable buying range. Were it to break to about 6.00, I would consider it a great buying opportunity. In the meantime, DROOY is not making us happy campers.

Here is the current DOW. It is not a happy picture. Certainly, we have been in an upward moving trough with the bear rally, but the RSI is showing negative and the MACD is showing neutral. With the DOW Theory non-confirmation by the Transportations, we remain in limbo. The 9500-9600 range appears to be the topping out level. Clearly, the price movement appears to be topping. Any close below about 9400 would send a technical signal to watch out below.

I recall how the crisis "Right here in River City" of the Music Man movie was the heart of the con. Well, the true crisis right here in River City, USA, is unemployment. The government, Obama's as well as during the prior reigns, has used misleading calculations to exclude the many who have simply run out of unemployment benefits and/or just stopped looking for jobs. This fails to provide a true picture of the seriousness of the problem. We should be thankful for www.ShadowStats.com which provides a much better estimate. Below is a comparison of the current calculations. The unemployment has exceeded 20% and is still climbing, though at a lower rate. Until this problem is solved by the non-government employers, we will still be in our recession/depression.
Gold is at 943.03 and silver at 14.07. Both are on down ticks at present. The DOW is off 63 at 9480+. Below are the miners from Scottrade Streaming Quotes.

Stay in the Word of God and seek first His righteousness, and all your needs will be met by the grace of God.

Best to each, Doug

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