Thoughts on Markets

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

$5,000 Gold? - Silver Rebounds - God Controls All

Silver has bounced up sharply this morning on the opening in NY. It is now 16.65 up 0.10 on an up tick. Silver has some catching up to do as it is behind gold on the recent rise of gold.

Gold got hammered again by the boyz, but is rebounding indicating that the demand is still strong. With the recent run up in gold, one would think that the broad media would have been more enthusiastic about gold going above $1,000. Of course, the media is responds to the "needs" of the government more than the need of the people to have access to the real news. Thus, we have not reached the third stage gold rush or the broad media could not have played the move down as easily.
Using GLD as a proxy for gold, it seems that we may be establishing a new trading range for consolidation before continuing upward. The older trading range is bracketed by the black trend lines and the potential new one by red trend lines. Overall, gold is still in a bull market. The RSI and MACD both are positive, but gold is down to 995.20 off 4.40 on a down tick presently.


From MineWeb.com:

DENVER GOLD FORUM

$5,000/oz gold? Rob McEwen says it's coming in 2014 or 2015

Über gold promoter Rob McEwen has also developed a taste for silver mining.

Author: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: Tuesday , 15 Sep 2009

RENO, NV -

When über mining investor Rob McEwen makes predictions on gold prices or appears to have developed an interest in silver mines, retail investors heed his clarion call and place their bets that the gold price is about to soar.

In a presentation to the Denver Gold Group on U.S. Gold Monday, McEwen was somewhat subdued as he only briefly mentioned he thought gold could hit $5,000 an ounce before the end if the gold cycle As this reporter scrambled for a clarification of his remarks in a brief interview, McEwen stuck by his prognostication, forecasting the end of the gold cycle would occur either on 2014 or 2015.

McEwen is so dedicated to the power of gold, he told his audience of fund managers, analysts, investment bankers and miners that he personally owns 21% of U.S. Gold. In comparison most major mining CEOs own a mere pittance. Read it HERE.

More from MineWeb.com:

Central bank gold purchases could help gold to reach fresh highs - GFMS

The research house believes the potential for a sustained period of record prices is very real- but we may have to be a little patient

Author: Rhona O'Connell
Posted: Monday , 14 Sep 2009

LONDON -

GFMS' newly released Update to its authoritative annual Gold Survey suggests that, even if September's rally runs out of steam and presages a sizeable retracement, this will merely set the scene for a future, decisive, breach of $1,000. The force behind this next move will be predominantly investment, driven most probably by a renewed upsurge in inflationary expectations. This would in all probability be accompanied by a slide in the dollar, although GFMS makes the valid point that if all currencies became suspect, then the move would not need to be driven by dollar weakness.

[This reminds us that currencies other than gold are fiat currencies. The term "fiat currency" has not been in the headlines much recently, but more than one eminent central banker has had cause in the past to refer to the fact that gold is the only currency that is no-one else's liability and it may not be long before the assertion is before us again]. Read it HERE.

DRD Gold from MineWeb.com:

DRDGOLD may still face strike

The gold miner has reached a wage agreement with some of the unions but, the National Union of Mineworkers has been granted a strike certificate

Posted: Tuesday , 15 Sep 2009

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - DRDGOLD said on Monday it had reached a wage settlement with the United Association of South Africa (UASA) union, but may face a strike over pay by members of the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM).

The company said it had agreed with UASA for its members at its Blyvoor mine to receive a 6.5% wage hike, those at Crown a 6% increase and those at East Rand Proprietary Mines (ERPM) a 4% rise.

The wage deal at Blyvoor will be backdated to July 1, while those at the Crown and ERPM operations will take effect from October.

The company said it may face a strike by members of NUM, South Africa's biggest union, as of Tuesday.

"(NUM) has been granted strike certificates in respect of the three operations and strike action is scheduled to begin at the start of the night shift tomorrow," it said in a statement.

The union rejected the company's offers of between 4-7% at the three operations.

From MineWeb.com:

Gold soon to re-test previous all time highs

A weaker dollar and a battle between bull and bear traders could see the yellow metal break its previous record and head toward $1100

Author: David Levenstein
Posted: Monday , 14 Sep 2009

JOHANNESBURG -

Finally, as the dollar fell to its lowest level in almost a year on Tuesday the gold price broke through the $1000 level. While the price of crude hovered around the $70 level, the euro rallied against the greenback for the sixth day to reach a fresh yearly high of 1.4630. The British pound advanced against the U.S. dollar for the fourth day to reach a fresh weekly high of 1.6744, and the improved outlook for inflation may drive the GBP/USD higher. The dollar also tumbled against the Japanese yen for the fourth consecutive day to trade below 91.00. The dollar index, which tracks its progress against a basket of six major currencies, fell to a low of 77.398, breaking through the lows it hit in early August to fall to its weakest level since September 30 2008. Read it HERE.

From the OnLineWSJ.com:

Obama Underwrites Offshore Drilling

Too bad it's not in U.S. waters.

You read that headline correctly. Unfortunately, the Obama Administration is financing oil exploration off Brazil.

The U.S. is going to lend billions of dollars to Brazil's state-owned oil company, Petrobras, to finance exploration of the huge offshore discovery in Brazil's Tupi oil field in the Santos Basin near Rio de Janeiro. Brazil's planning minister confirmed that White House National Security Adviser James Jones met this month with Brazilian officials to talk about the loan.

The U.S. Export-Import Bank tells us it has issued a "preliminary commitment" letter to Petrobras in the amount of $2 billion and has discussed with Brazil the possibility of increasing that amount. Ex-Im Bank says it has not decided whether the money will come in the form of a direct loan or loan guarantees. Either way, this corporate foreign aid may strike some readers as odd, given that the U.S. Treasury seems desperate for cash and Petrobras is one of the largest corporations in the Americas. Read it HERE.

The article above was sent to me by a friend who suggested that this could be a payoff by Obama to George Soros who has a large holding in Petrobras. I wonder, Obama would not do such a thing, would he?

From DailyMail.co.uk:

Revealed: The ghost fleet of the recession

By Simon Parry

Last updated at 6:34 PM on 13th September 2009

The biggest and most secretive gathering of ships in maritime history lies at anchor east of Singapore. Never before photographed, it is bigger than the U.S. and British navies combined but has no crew, no cargo and no destination - and is why your Christmas stocking may be on the light side this year.






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