Thoughts on Markets

Tuesday, September 01, 2009

Haggai Speaks to America - Markets

Folks,
I have been studying the Book of Haggai in the Old Testament, and am concerned about the similarity of the plight of the Old Testament Church which was released from captivity to rebuild the temple in Jerusalem and the condition of many of our churches today. You may recall that after some 70 years of captivity in Babylon, a remnant of the people of Israel were sent back home by King Cyrus to rebuild Jerusalem.

Now some 18 years later the Lord through Haggai is calling to them, because they have failed to complete the Temple of God.
They are accused of enjoying the luxury of their individual homes while neglected the physical House of God. Soon after they arrived, they had prepared the foundation, but the work was stopped by opposition of local rulers which was soon removed by King Darius. However, they went about building nice homes and enjoying high living while the House of God was not completed.

God asked them about their financial condition "You have sown much, but harvest little; you eat, but there is not enough to be satisfied; you drink, but there is not enough to become drunk; you put on clothing, but no one is warm enough . . ." (Hag. 1:6 NASB). God told them why, "Because I blew it away." He goes on to call them to build His house.
It seems that the message from God is certainly applicable today. America has achieved great affluence in the many years by the providential blessing of God.

Many of our churches have become entertainment centers and social gatherings where members are treated to earthly sentimental fun and fellowship. Few are preaching the warnings of Scripture that "all have sinned and come short of the glory of God." Many are simply marketing an impotent Jesus without confronting people with the law of God and the need for rebirth into new life.

Many have lost sight of the purpose of sound reformed churches which are to preach the whole word of God (Old and New Testaments), to administer the two sacraments: baptism and the Lord's Supper, and to administer discipline over the members. True churches meet each Lord's Day to bring their tithes and offerings and for corporate worship of God.

God is saying to us today, "Consider your ways, you are living a life of physical luxury far beyond the grasp of the rest of the world. However, it is now crumbling before your eyes. You ask why, it is because I blew on the financial strongholds of the world. You have put your faith in your financial security while neglecting My church. You preferred your luxurious living and have let your church decay as it moved away from My prescribed worship."

He is calling us to a spiritual awakening and turning back to Him in the manner to which He has called us. We are called to rebuild, not a physical temple, but the Church of Jesus Christ on earth in obedience to His commandment to work to bring all of life in concert with the Word of God. He is calling us to a world and life view which is centered upon King Jesus. Without this, He will continue to blow and destroy all that upon which we depend for safety and security. King Jesus, alone, is the Savior and Protector of the world. We must turn back to Him.

Now to the markets. Do not miss the prophetic video near the end of this posting. It is a review of some speeches by Robert Welch which were presented decades ago. Wow! Are they ever accurate!

Here is a graph of gold continuous contract. It is an encouraging graph form with a large wedge forming. The lower slope (higher lows) of the graph is moving higher more rapidly than the upper (lower highs) showing a bias toward the upside. The price seems also to be moving toward the upper slope. A break through to above 960 would be highly positive. The RSI appears to be turning downward while the MACD is showing a slight bend upward. We will have to wait for the break out to occur to know where, when the price will go. Of course, I believe we still have intervention by the bullion banks. China is purchasing a lot of gold.
The miners are showing a similar pattern to that of gold. The divergence between the RSI and MACD is more pronounced. Both Gold and GDX remain above both the 50 and 200 moving averages which is positive.
The dollar on the other hand is showing a very nasty graph. The Index is below both the moving averages. The dollar is locked in a bear trend that, other than a few upward spurts will last for a long time. China's move toward internationalizing the Renminbi will continue to exert depressing pressure on the dollar. The Federal Reserve and Federal Government are also trashing the dollar.


From NRA:

STANDING GUARD
By Wayne LaPierre, Executive Vice President


Expressing Shared, Political Values

In an astonishing and rare procedural shift, the U.S. Supreme Court declined to produce an expected narrow decision on a critical First Amendment case before its last term ended. Instead, the court deferred its ruling and ordered a new hearing—calling for the case to be re-argued under a vastly broadened scope—scheduled for September, even before its new term begins.

he court's deliberations in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission could well result in restoration of First Amendment liberty lost to the George Soros-backed "campaign reform" law enacted by Congress in 2002. That noxious law bans and criminalizes spending by non-profit corporate groups like the NRA for pre-election broadcasts to support or defeat candidates or to even mention a federal office-holder in the context of issue-driven advertisements.

Most remarkably, in extending its purview, the court asked the parties in the case to look beyond the challenged broadcast ban sections of the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (BCRA) and address the constitutionality of the very concept of laws criminalizing the use of corporate funds to pay for political speech in any venue and form. Read it HERE.

Obamacare to pay for abortion report by American Family Association Alert:

Democrats guarantee abortion coverage in ObamaCare

Urgent: Call your representative and two senators today!

August 31, 2009

President Obama told liberal clergy that those who claim his health care plan will provide taxpayer funding for abortions are "bearing false witness." But it's the president who is not being truthful with the American people.

The Capps Amendment, passed by Democrats in the Energy and Commerce Committee at the end of July, specifically says that the "public health insurance option shall provide coverage for (abortion) services," and directs the "Commissioner" to "assure" that every American will have access "to at least one ... plan that provides coverage of (abortion) services."

California Democrat Zoe Lofgren admitted in a town hall meeting this month that "abortion will be covered by one or more of the health care plans available to Americans."

From Ron Paul.com:

Misinformation Alert: Barney Frank Never Said That HR 1207 Will Pass In October

Missing Sentence in Transcript Causes Premature HR 1207 Victory Celebration

Several blogs and forums reported during the past 24 hours that Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, Barney Frank, said that Ron Paul’s bill to audit the Federal Reserve, HR 1207, will pass in October.

Incorrect Reports about Barney Frank’s Statement on HR 1207

Read the whole article HERE.

From MineWeb.com:

RUNNING WITH FOXES

Gold fever back in town

Recent mergers have fuelled an explosion of passionate speculation; 100 potential target stocks are mentioned here.

Author: Barry Sergeant
Posted: Monday , 31 Aug 2009

JOHANNESBURG -

Last week's announced gold industry mergers - Eldorado with Sino Gold, and also Lake Shore Gold with West Timmins - have fired up fresh waves of heavy speculative investor portfolio flows into targeted gold stocks seen as most likely to feature as near term targets.

The interest is mainly speculative, given that the recent uptrend in global mining stocks, in place since early June, has been less focused on gold stocks than on a good number of listed recovery stock subsectors, led by copper miners, and followed by those specialising in nickel, iron ore, silver, platinum, aluminium, zinc, uranium, molybdenum, and even diamonds.

Gold bullion has held up better than other commodities, having broadly churned between around US$700 and US$1,000 an ounce since March 2008. Read it HERE.

From MineWeb.com:
DEMAND DRIVER KICK-OFF

History lesson: September is best month for gold and gold stocks

September has been the best month on average for the gold price to show an increase with appreciation over the month in 16 of the past 20 years.

Author: Frank Holmes
Posted: Tuesday , 01 Sep 2009

SAN ANTONIO (U.S. Global Investors) -

We're heading into September this week, so it's a good time to revisit the historic seasonality of gold and gold stocks.

Over the past four decades, September has been the best time for gold in terms of its month-over-month price appreciation. You can see this on the chart below - in a typical year, the price of gold in September rises 2.5% above its August price.

The gold price has risen in 16 of the 20 Septembers since 1989, by far the best success ratio of any month of the year.

Source: U.S. Global research. Read the article HERE.

That is interesting since September has been widely reported to be a poor month for stocks in general.

From MineWeb.com:

CHINA MINING GETS BIGGER

Financial crisis a window opportunity for Chinese miners

Despite well-publicised setbacks China's big miners stand to benefit from the global downturn as cash-strapped Western firms leave behind a shopping list of underfunded mining concessions.

Author: David Stanway
Posted: Monday , 31 Aug 2009

BEIJING (Reuters) - -

The global clout of China's big mining companies should surge as a result of the financial crisis while leaving foreign firms desperate for funding, a Chinese mining executive said at the Reuters China Investment Summit.

With world capital markets in the doldrums since last year, the global mining sector has faced severe capital shortages, but self-reliant Chinese mining companies have emerged relatively unscathed and are in a strong position to take advantage -- despite well-publicized political setbacks, said Yang Junmin, vice-general manager of Beijing Sinodrill.

"Since world metals prices collapsed, a large number of Chinese firms have acquired overseas mining projects -- including private companies -- and this has given us a great business opportunity," he said at the Reuters office in Beijing. Read it HERE.

From Ron Paul on Swine Flu:

See the video HERE.

From TownHall.com:

Suicide of the West?
by Thomas Sowell

Britain's release of Abdel Baset al-Megrahi-- the Libyan terrorist whose bomb blew up a plane over Lockerbie, Scotland in 1988, killing 270 people-- is galling enough in itself. But it is even more profoundly troubling as a sign of a larger mood that has been growing in the Western democracies in our time.

In ways large and small, domestically and internationally, the West is surrendering on the installment plan to Islamic extremists.

The late Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn put his finger on the problem when he said: "The timid civilized world has found nothing with which to oppose the onslaught of a sudden revival of barefaced barbarity, other than concessions and smiles." Read it HERE.

From TownHall.com:

In Afghanistan, Knowing When to Stop
by George Will

WASHINGTON -- "Yesterday," reads the e-mail from Allen, a Marine in Afghanistan, "I gave blood because a Marine, while out on patrol, stepped on a (mine's) pressure plate and lost both legs." Then "another Marine with a bullet wound to the head was brought in. Both Marines died this morning."

"I'm sorry about the drama," writes Allen, an enthusiastic infantryman willing to die "so that each of you may grow old." He says: "I put everything in God's hands." And: "Semper Fi!"

Allen and others of America's finest are also in Washington's hands. This city should keep faith with them by rapidly reversing the trajectory of America's involvement in Afghanistan, where, says the Dutch commander of coalition forces in a southern province, walking through the region is "like walking through the Old Testament."

U.S. strategy -- protecting the population -- is increasingly troop-intensive while Americans are increasingly impatient about "deteriorating" (says Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff) conditions. The war already is nearly 50 percent longer than the combined U.S. involvements in two world wars, and NATO assistance is reluctant and often risible. Read it HERE.

From the DailyPfennig.com:

"German unemployment fell by 1,000... OK, now I know that this has the same feeling as removing a bucket of sand from a beach, when unemployment in Germany is 3.46 million! But, I never said that Germany's economic recovery was a tidal wave! It's smoking embers, that are in need of stirring, some small twigs, and leaves... My beautiful bride is an "expert" and getting a fire started like that, I should send her over to Germany, that would really kick the domestic demand to another level! HA!

Baby steps... That's the way we're going here... So, we've had IFO and ZEW think tank reports on Confidence all print stronger... We had the GDP surprise on the upside... And there was something else last week, but it slips my mind right now. The point here is that the Eurozone's largest economy is waking up... We just have to hope it doesn't hit the "snooze" button, now!

A reader sent me a note yesterday asking if I thought there would be a collapse of the Eurozone and thus the euro... If I had $5 for each time these stories have hit the streets, I would be sipping on a multi-colored drink in a tall glass with one of those tiny umbrellas, in a tropical setting... The point I'm making here is that on the outside Spain and Italy have problems... But what's changed? These two had problems before they joined the Eurozone, and have had problems since joining the Eurozone... Me? I totally believe that these two get down on their knees each night and give thanks for being allowed to join the Eurozone! So... In case you missed my answer in there... I don't see that happening, at least not in the near future..."

From Casey's Daily Dispatch yesterday: "Increasingly, it appears that China’s leadership know that the country’s hugely successful U.S. export program is a thing of the past, and are now focusing on regional markets as well as increasingly turning inward. In my opinion, the recent spate of Chinese buying of foreign resource companies has little to do with trying to secure the raw materials needed to keep exports cheap, and far more to do with securing Fortress China while simultaneously reducing U.S. dollar reserves. (Color added for emphasis.)

And why not turn inward? It’s a given that the American consumer is toast for some years to come. The deafening silence now echoing around the world’s ports underscores the current situation."

Speeches by the founder of the John Birch Society: See it HERE.

These speeches in 1958 and 1974 are prophetic. It is important to hear these and to recognize the impact of the Marxization of the United States in the 20th Century. Folks, we lost the original America to the communists through schools, media, movies, and leadership.

From Bloomberg.com:

Shipping Rates Seen Falling 50% on China, Fleet Size

Aug. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Just as global trade starts to recover, the shipping market is crashing for the second time in a year as China reduces raw-material imports and record numbers of new vessels set sail.

The rate for leasing capesize ships, boats three times the size of the Statue of Liberty, will drop about 50 percent from the current price of $37,865 a day to as low as $18,000 before the end of the year, according to the median in a Bloomberg survey of six analysts and fund managers. Forward freight agreements traded by brokers show the fourth-quarter average price will be 7 percent lower. Read it HERE.

Here are the miners as of this moment:

Best to each, Doug


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