Thoughts on Markets

Wednesday, October 07, 2009

Precious Metals Strong - Dollar Weak

Gold is showing a very strong upward move. The overhang is still the vast deep pockets of the boyz and their gigantic short holding. Nevertheless, gold is in a strong rapid upward move. It has much farther to go. The boyz may be trying to stop it, but so far there is little indication that they are being successful. The demand in China and India has increased. Thus, we are having higher demand for the precious metals. I believe we have seen the cyclical low, I have spoken of in recent postings. It was hard to recognize, because it was not a drop, but the calm before this storm we are experiencing. For those of you who have been waiting to jump in, you will have to jump in at a higher price than you refused to participate on the way upward. It also seems that some of the general public has begun to climb in, as well. This could well be the early stages of the gold rush which is to be expected. Perhaps, we will have a "correction" with a buying opportunity. However, it will now be, if it comes, near $1,000 per ounce gold.

Gold holding well far above $1,000 and threatened $1,050 over night. It should break through that price before very long. We are likely to see gold threatening $2,000 this year. Could be higher depending upon the manipulation.
Well, I did not get to buy more Silver Eagles this round. I was hoping to get them at < $17, but that was wishful thinking. We will be blessed to get them below $19.50. Folks, we are at a higher level with the precious metals and are not likely to see them much lower. It seems that the support for gold is about $1,000 and Silver around $16.50+. Any breaks to these levels should be a good buying opportunity. From The-Privateer.com:

This portion of the 5 X 3 $US P&F graph of gold clearly indicates the strong break out.

From MineWeb.com:

Gold stocks watchlist as bullion roars to dollar record

But listed gold equities remain well below levels seen in early 2008, and conservative analysts see a weak dollar as gold's booster, for now.

Author: Barry Sergeant
Posted: Wednesday , 07 Oct 2009

JOHANNESBURG -

Dollar gold prices roared to record levels, above US $1,040 an ounce, on Tuesday, as the dollar sustained renewed pressure after Australia unexpectedly raised interest rates. With early signals that other developed economies may raise interest rates from multi decade, and even record, lows, investors are betting that inflation rates will rise, underpinning an ongoing switch of funds to hard assets such as gold bullion.

Gold's rise on Tuesday was echoed across the broader commodities complex, and reflected in strong demand for resources stocks in general. In the background, the majority of stock markets around the world are trading at, or close to, 12-month highs, as reflected in the broad-based MSCI world equities US$ index, and the MSCI emerging markets US$ index, reflecting the general increase in investor appetite for risk. Read it HERE.

There is a growing demand for all commodities. Perhaps, China is really searching the globe for more commodities. The dollar was also weaker.

From MineWeb.com:

STILL MUCH FURTHER TO GO?

Update: Price surge carries gold to new records and beyond

Several factors have contributed to yesterday's surge in the gold price which shot it past its previous U.S.dollar record.

Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted: Tuesday , 06 Oct 2009

LONDON -

A confluence of factors seems to have helped propel the gold price to new nominal records - although so far still well below its peak in real terms of the late 1970s. But when gold peaked back then it spiked and fell back quickly. This time around there does appear to be much more solidity behind the rise, although yesterday's run-up has the potential of being a spike with a fairly rapid correction to follow. The only question in this respect would be how far the spike has yet to go, and how deep the correction may be. Even so, such a correction may be shortlived in the current global economic climate.

It would seem though that the yellow metal had been setting a pretty solid base at around the $1,000 mark before it made the move. It had been trading between around $990 and $1020 - and there did seem to be substantial support in the $990s which may have taken the gold bears by surprise. The gold bulls though have been predicting this move for some time, but from now on there are huge variations in the forecasts. More sober commentators will be looking for maybe $1,200 by the year end, while the raging bulls would see $5,000 within the next year or so. Read it HERE.

How high is the moon? What price gold in the future? What price at the cyclical high near the end of December? Do you have a good crystal ball? I don't, so I just try to decipher what God is dealing us in the precious metals. He hates the fraud of the unbacked paper currencies which are against His warning against unequal weights and measures.

From Telegraph.co.uk:

China calls time on dollar hegemony

You can date the end of dollar hegemony from China's decision last month to sell its first batch of sovereign bonds in Chinese yuan to foreigners.

Beijing does not need to raise money abroad since it has $2 trillion (£1.26 trillion) in reserves. The sole purpose is to prepare the way for the emergence of the yuan as a full-fledged global currency.

"It's the tolling of the bell," said Michael Power from Investec Asset Management. "We are only beginning to grasp the enormity and historical significance of what has happened."

It is this shift in China and other parts of rising Asia and Latin America that threatens dollar domination, not the pricing of oil contracts. The markets were rattled yesterday by reports – since denied – that China, France, Japan, Russia, and Gulf states were plotting to replace the Greenback as the currency for commodity sales, but it makes little difference whether crude is sold in dollars, euros, or Venetian Ducats. Read it HERE.

One small step for China, one giant step against the other paper currencies.

From GATA.org:

Ohmigod! Commodity investors might have to buy ... actual commodities!



A looming crackdown in the commodity futures markets is arousing investor interest in the real thing.

Facing a limit on holdings in paper futures contracts, bankers say they have received inquiries from pension funds and other big investors about the practicality of warehousing industrial metals or chartering supertankers.

The inquiries raise thorny issues for the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission as it devises constraints on holdings of energy futures after last year's surge in oil prices. Gary Gensler, chairman, has said he wants position limits to be consistently applied across commodity markets.

Critics say investors could respond by bailing out of futures and hoarding actual commodities, an ugly prospect in the event of a global shortage. Neither the CFTC nor the UK Financial Services Authority has jurisdiction over spot commodity markets.

At Morgan Stanley, the investment bank with the biggest physical commodities operation, "most large investors in commodities in general are worried about position limits -- whether they'll be able to carry the exposure they need to carry," says Boris Shrayer, global head of commodities marketing. "We've had a lot of discussions with clients about the physical." Read the article HERE.

That would be a blow to the boyz, but a blessing to us. May never happen.

From TownHall.com:

Elites and Tyrants
by Walter E. Williams

Rep. Diane Watson said, in praising Cuba's health care system, "You can think whatever you want to about Fidel Castro, but he was one of the brightest leaders I have ever met." W.E.B. Dubois, writing in the National Guardian (1953) said, "Joseph Stalin was a great man; few other men of the 20th century approach his stature. ... But also -- and this was the highest proof of his greatness -- he knew the common man, felt his problems, followed his fate." Walter Duranty called Stalin "the greatest living statesman . . . a quiet, unobtrusive man." George Bernard Shaw expressed admiration for Mussolini, Hitler and Stalin.

John Kenneth Galbraith visited Mao's China and praised Mao and the Chinese economic system. Gunther Stein of the Christian Science Monitor admired Mao Tsetung and declared ecstatically that "the men and women pioneers of Yenan are truly new humans in spirit, thought and action," and that Yenan itself constituted "a brand new well integrated society, that has never been seen before anywhere." Michel Oksenberg, President Carter's China expert, complained that "America (is) doomed to decay until radical, even revolutionary, change fundamentally alters the institutions and values," and urged us to "borrow ideas and solutions" from China. Read it HERE.

This article covers a number of elites who presented us with terrible advise. Of course, that was the way for most of the 20th Century. That was the Century of great losses to the communists of the world. Now early in the 21st, we are following the same path. Since we do not know history as a people, we are bound to repeat the mistakes of the past in spades. God in His heaven looks down with scorn on the folly of men.

Here are the miners from Scottrade streaming quotes:
Here are the currencies from Kitco.com:
Gold is now 1042.90 and silver 17.49 with both on up ticks. The DOW is 9720 off 10+.

Aren't you glad to be in precious metals and mining stocks. I have canceled all of my trailing stops and am hanging on to everything.

The deadline for the Market Safe BRIC CD of Everbank.com is next week. There is an on line application available, but the application must be signed and mailed with funds to reach Ever Bank World Markets next week. I have invested in this and see it as an easy way to play some of the growing currencies (BRIC - Brazil, Russia, India, and China). The minimum is only $1,500.

Best to each, Doug




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