Thoughts on Markets

Thursday, July 21, 2011

Debt Limit Will be Raised - What will happen to the Dollar and Precious Metals - In About a Week We will know


This posting for the blog is to share with you some concerns which I feel are urgent. Most of this is my very near future plan for portfolio activity with the reason I believe it will be right for me. Only King Jesus really knows the future, but in creation, we were given brains with which we are to discern and the perfect handbook: the Bible, to use for all of life and practice. As I study the markets in the light of biblical principles and under the guidance of the Holy Spirit, I plan accordingly, commit the plans to the Lord, move out in accordance with the plans, and look to Him for the success. Often, He not give me the intended results; however, at those times, I seek from Him the reason and the alternate course of action He has prepared for me. 

I'm am beginning to speculate that the dollar will bounce upward as the Congressional Clowns finally announce a raising of the debt limit very late in the game. The sigh of relief amount the investors will something to behold and the dollar will rise while gold and silver may be treated to a big correction. I further believe that both of these result from the euphoria of the "rescue" of the borrowing limit increase will be temporary.

If this comes to fruition, as I believe it will, this will give us another, possibly the last, buying opportunity for the precious metals and mining stocks. The reactions could come as early as near the end of the next seven days as news will always leak out ahead of the actual announcement. 

When this occurs, I will be a buyer of metals and mining stocks. I will likely use the Canadian Trust (CEF), Ever Bank World Market Metals Select and Gold Money for the metals. I will be particularly interested in Fortuna (FVITF) and Hecla Mining (HL) for silver mining stocks. These seem right for my portfolios, but may not be suitable for you, so make your own decisions. 

Tomorrow should be a good day for the metals and miners as they were not treated well today. They seem to be playing the two step again. Two up and one or so down. This is always designed to confuse us as we observe market activity. If tomorrow is a down day for metals and miners, I may more more quickly with some cash while holding some in reserve for the next seven days or so. 

I will be very closely following the market for the next few days as July winds down and August becomes more visible. I suggest you do the same to be aware of what is happening. I believe this is a very critical time.

My belief is that some type of compromise will be worked out to raise the debt ceiling which is in reality a farce from the beginning. I believe, also, that there will be stealth taxes and trimming of benefits by governments at all levels. These will result from behind the door meetings where compromises are worked out to our detriment. After all, we have a growing totalitarian government which is more interested in keeping the elected politicians in office of power and financial security than in protecting the life, liberty, and property of the citizens. 

The following news from KitCo are leading me to believe that my projection for the next few days is likely. I could, of course, "I could be wrong, but I don't think so!" as Mr. Monk said so often. 

P.M. Kitco Metals Roundup: Comex Gold, Silver End Lower as Investor Risk Appetite Upticks on Ideas U.S., EU Debt Agreements Close
Comex gold and silver futures prices finished the U.S. day session with a late sell off and closed lower and nearer the daily lows. Selling pressure in the precious metals occurred as investor risk appetite has increased this week amid ideas of imminent lawmaker agreements on deals to address the twin U.S. and European Union debt crises. August gold last traded down $9.30 at $1,587.60 an ounce. Spot gold last traded down $14.40 an ounce at $1,588.00. December Comex silver last traded down $0.426 at $39.155 an ounce.

Below are the KitCo 24 Hour Graphs for Gold and Silver as of about 0815 pm today.  Notice that both metals have been taken lower. Is this a prelude to my thoughts, above. Could be, but I do not really know.

Miners from Scottrade:

Best to each, Doug


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