Thoughts on Markets

Thursday, March 12, 2009

Precious Metals Up - Rest comforably in the Lord

Silver dropped and then is spiking upward. It is now 12.92.
Gold has performed much better than silver overnight. It is now 923.20. Both are on up ticks. The mining stocks are responding in kind. By the way, that is one reason for being patient with the mining stocks and to watch closely for buying and selling times. My trading stocks are performing well, as follows: DROOY (the star among the three) 9.29; HMY 11.37, and VGZ 1.80. Remember that I like DROOY below 8.00; HMY below 10.00, and VGZ around 1.50. I use trailing stops on a portion, never all, of the stocks as they move into profitable range. I currently have stops on DROOY.

There is an abundance of news on the precious metals today. The dollar is down and the DOW is about even. It is in a war with itself now trying to decide direction.

From MineWeb:

Has gold bullion found its limits?

A modest dip in perceived global risk triggers a decline in gold bullion; equity investors switch from gold and silver stocks to miners in oversold areas such as copper, iron ore, potash, and aluminium.

Author: Barry Sergeant
Posted: Wednesday , 11 Mar 2009

JOHANNESBURG -

Fairly dramatic news on Tuesday, mainly out of the US, triggered a rally in stocks and at the same time a sell off of gold and silver bullion, and increases just about everywhere else in the commodities complex, not least crude oil. Perceptibly positive trading conditions news from Dow Jones Industrial Average member Citigroup took pride of place; the stock price rallied by 38% on the day, and continued its upward path on Wednesday. Read it HERE.

The sell off in precious metals and mining stocks early this week is tracking what happened last week. Once again, we were given buying opportunity and now potentially a time for trailing stops to protect the profit which seems to be following. I try never to pass up such opportunities, so I keep some powder dry to use against such targets of opportunity.

More from MineWeb:

UBS suggests gold has potential US$2,500/oz upside

Despite the worst global recession in 70 years, UBS has upgraded commodities from underweight to a small overweight, especially in precious metals.

Author: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: Thursday , 12 Mar 2009

RENO, NV -

UBS Investment Research has moved gold to overweight from neutral, citing the "broad uncertainties in the current macroclimate."

In their Q-Series: Gold research, analysts Daniel Brebner and James Luke, strategist John Reade and economist Larry Hatheway said they have determined that "future returns on gold are likely to be positively asymmetric, with potential upside US$2,500/oz."

The team also suggested that the current environment as "having a ‘low margin of error' for central bankers." Read it HERE.

In my opinion, it is not if, but a matter of "WHEN?" That is always the question in investments of all types. Only the Lord knows the timing, and we make prayerful, educated guesses.That is the best that we are allowed to do.

And more from MineWeb:

Sovereign wealth fund official recommends gold, wary on dollar and sterling

Yeoh Lam Keong, director of economics and strategy for one of the world's largest sovereign wealth funds, reckons gold, sovereign bonds and some key currencies would be best investments.

Author: Kevin Lim and Saeed Azhar
Posted: Wednesday , 11 Mar 2009

SINGAPORE (Reuters) -

An official from the Government of Singapore Investment Corp. (GIC) said he expects more weakness in financial markets in the next 12-18 months, and recommended investors hold gold and other safe assets such as government bonds.

GIC, one of the world's largest sovereign funds with an estimated $200 billion-plus in assets, has invested aggressively in troubled global lenders, picking up multi-billion dollar stakes in Citigroup and UBS in late 2007 and early 2008. Read it HERE.

As these SWFs move into the precious metals, we will see a big upward thrust for both gold and silver. In the long run, I believe silver will out perform gold. We shall see when the time comes.

From Casey's Daily Resource Plus:

The Hightower Report wrote of the day’s action: “The gold market came back alive after a retest of the vicinity of the prior session's lows. With a reversal in the equity market and a noted slide in the Dollar perhaps the gold bulls are regaining some sway. Given the periodic retest of the 88.00 level in the March Dollar Index recently, that level might be considered a key point for the gold bulls in the coming trading sessions. Clearly the gold market was emboldened by the weaker Dollar, especially since the gold market managed the gains in the face of a serious setback in energy prices. Some traders suspect that comments from the US Treasury Secretary that the global recession was deepening rekindled some flight to quality buying of gold. Perhaps seeing talk of implementing mark to market accounting the second quarter increased concerns that even more financial sector problems would be found.”

We will have to heed the idea of tracking the Dollar Index as recommended, above. That is likely to turn out to be sound advice.

From Bloomberg:

Gold Futures Rebound in N.Y. on Dollar’s Decline; Silver Gains

By Pham-Duy Nguyen

March 11 (Bloomberg) -- Gold futures rose, rebounding from the lowest price in a month, as the slumping dollar enhanced the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative investment. Silver gained the most in two weeks.

The dollar fell as much as 1.2 percent against a weighted basket of six major currencies. Gold and the dollar historically have moved in the opposite direction. The correlation hasn’t held this year as investors purchased both assets as a hedge against turmoil in financial markets.Read it HERE.

The dollar may have resumed its downward trend. The Euro performed particularly well against the dollar over night. By the way, China showed a strong export surplus for February even though it was about 4-5% down from the month before. What if China uses its reserves to buy more precious metals? They are still shopping the world with their reserve. Is this their way, of lowing their dollars in reserve. They may stop buying more of our debt, then who will?

It is wonderful to rest securely in the hands of the loving Heavenly Father who sent His Only Begotten Son to take upon Himself the sins of His people. Nothing can separate His people from the love of God which is in Jesus Christ THE LORD! Praise Him daily. He must be first in your life for you to live. Else, you are among the walking dead.

Best to each, Doug



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