Thoughts on Markets

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Correction Bottomed? - Copper - Gold

Southern Copper Corp looks like it may be turning upward rather strongly. We must be patient and see what happens here.



Both silver and gold seem to be coming out of an oversold position and are moving up strongly today.


The miners are responding in kind with similar moves. However, the GDX is showing some weakness as the price is still below the 50 Day Moving Average. The RSI is turning upward. Negatively, we had very strong volume yesterday as the price moved downward.
I bought AMNP at 0.82 today as another speculative miner. Of course, it promptly dropped to 0.81, but that is often the way my purchases go at first.
From MineWeb.com:

Investment to drive gold price to $2,000-$3,000 or more but only over a few years.

Jeff Nichols sets out his views on gold and the gold price in a presentation in Hong Kong.

Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted: Wednesday , 28 Oct 2009

LONDON -

Gold guru Jeff Nichols, in his latest presentation to a Far Eastern audience at the Gold Outlook Asia conference in Hong Kong last Thursday, made some very pertinent points regarding gold and the U.S. and global economy - the two being very much interlinked.

Some of his particular comments were as follows:

  • The root cause of the current world economic crisis has been decades of easy money, low interest rates, a persistently expansionary monetary and fiscal policy by the U.S. -- aided and abetted by China and the other major Asian exporting countries.
  • These same policies are now responsible for the bull market in gold -- a bull market that will likely to carry the metal into the $2,000 to $3,000 range or even higher over the next few years, but not immediately.
  • The U.S. economy is showing signs of life only because of massive injections of liquidity from the Fed and unprecedented fiscal stimulus from by the U.S. Treasury along with a temporary period of inventory restocking.
  • There remains a significant risk of a "double-dip" recession with further contraction and a second down-leg in U.S. equity prices yet to come.
  • In lieu of paying down America's huge debts, we can expect currency debasement and higher rates of inflation to reduce the real value of its debts at home and abroad. And, with higher inflation and a depreciating dollar, gold will likely continue its spectacular rise.
  • Read the article HERE.
From MineWeb.com:

Chinese visit signals thaw in relations with Australia

The mood was boosted by a glowing editorial in one of China's most popular newspapers

Author: Michael Perry (Reuters)
Posted: Thursday , 29 Oct 2009

SYDNEY (Reuters) -

The arrival of China's Vice Premier Li Keqiang in Sydney on Thursday and a glowing editorial in one of China's most popular newspapers this week seem to seal the end of diplomatic tensions between Canberra and Beijing.

Relations plummeted in June over a failed bid by China's state-owned metals firm Chinalco for a $19.5 billion stake in Anglo-Australian Rio Tinto and the arrest in China of an Australian executive with Rio over corporate espionage charges.

China canceled a high-level diplomatic visit to Australia and its media accused Australia of interfering in China's affairs when Australia granted a visa to an exiled ethnic Uighur leader.

But China's Ambassador to Australia, Zhang Junsai, said both countries had come to a consensus that they must manage their differences and that Li's visit to Australia reflected the long-term importance of Australia-China ties. Read it HERE.

China is courting Australia again. Of course, China wants more interest in the natural resources of Australia, so..........

From MineWeb.com:

AFRICAN EXPANSION TRAIL

China's appetite for African minerals unabated - Report

According to the superpower direct investment into Africa by China rose 78%

Posted: Wednesday , 28 Oct 2009

BEIJING (Reuters) -

The global financial crisis has failed to dampen Chinese investment in Africa, a leading state-run newspaper said on Wednesday.

Premier Wen Jiabao heads to Egypt next month for the second China-Africa summit, as China's appetite for raw materials drives African growth.

China portrays itself as a steadfast friend of Africa and has pumped billions of dollars into the continent, especially over the last few years, often by what it calls "no-strings" loans or aid.

In the first half of this year China's direct investment in Africa, excluding in the financial sector, shot up 78.6 percent year-on-year to $875 million, the People's Daily said, citing an unnamed Commerce Ministry official. Read it HERE.

From The Daily Pfennig: Chuck Butler reported that Norway joined Australia in raising rates 25 points yesterday. He looked at GMAC going back to the government bail out trough and coined the phrase Government in "too deep to fail" replacing the old "too big to fail." Atta Boy, Chuck!

Here are the miners compliments of Scottrade's streaming quotes:

Here are the currencies from Kitco.com:

BULM Last 0.75; BYDDF 10.13; AMNP 0.83; Gold 1041.40; Silver 16.59; DOW +106 to 9670. The correction may or may not be over, but the metals and the DOW are putting in a good showing today after a miserable one yesterday.

In times of flux, it is wonderful to live in the love and care of the Sovereign God of all. We can relax and know without a doubt that He is in control. King Jesus rules over all and is bringing all to His feet as He works His will to the eventual good of His people. Let us praise Him daily for His providential care.

Best to each, Doug




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