Thoughts on Markets

Tuesday, November 03, 2009

Gold Up - Miners Holding - Silver Up

Gold is showing some strength with the strong rebounds. India buying the IMF gold will be positive as other banks continue their buying.

Our proxy for gold, GLD, is showing some bullish signs, but there are questions. The RSI is neutral while the MACD is quite positive. On the bullish side, the price is in the center of the upward trough blue trend lines. The decreasing volume is puzzling and negative. The price remains well above both moving averages which is a good sign.
For our miners, we see a different picture. Both the RSI and MACD are positive. The inverted "W" is quite negative, but we may be seeing a break out upward in the last few days negating the "W."
Silver is still lagging gold. We maybe should be thinking about the silver Double Eagles now or very soon before it moves higher.

The Daily Pfennig reported this morning that the ISM Manufacturing Index clocked in at 55.7 up from the previous month's 52.6. This, of course, is another lie which was revealed as there is growing rhetoric of the need for another stimulus which would not be necessary were the report true. The 155th bank failed on Friday. Royal Bank of Australia raised rates by 1/4% last night, and the Austrian Dollar was promptly sold off. Strange, but it may be an opportunity to buy it cheaper than it will be in the near future.

There are all types of strange things going on in markets. Remember that the only way for the US to compete in the international markets is to provide a unique product or service and to lower the value of the dollar. There are no other ways for us to be competitive. In the meantime, most of Europe is trading among themselves and China's domestic market has increased quantumly while they are doing most of their international trading in Asia.

From Reuters.com:

RBI buys half of IMF's gold for sale; who's next?

Tue Nov 3, 2009

By Surojit Gupta and Lesley Wroughton

MUMBAI/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund has sold 200 tonnes of gold to the Reserve Bank of India for $6.7 billion, quietly executing half of a long-planned bullion sale that has threatened to slow gold's ascent.

The deal, which surprised traders who expected China to be the most likely buyer, will relieve the gold market of some uncertainty over how and when the IMF would sell 403.3 tonnes of gold, about one-eighth of its total stock. The deal will increase India's gold holdings to the tenth largest among central banks. Read it HERE.

China has already indicated an interest in the IMF Gold. Perhaps, they will grab the other half.

From NYTimes.com:

Cashing in Memories, at $1,000 an Ounce

The corkscrew earrings I got for my 16th birthday felt way too ’80s to wear, but I still liked to look at them sometimes. As for the dome-shaped ring with the ripple running over it, my mother couldn’t figure out how to wear it, so she gave it to me to try. Could I really trade these things for a pile of twenties? Read the article HERE.

This indicates a greater interest in dollars than gold. Of course, jewelry is not a good investment unless it is fine jewelry and bought from pawn shops at a great discount from jewelry stores. By the way, guys, engagement rings are available in many pawn shops at great discounts. You must be careful and probably have them appraised before purchase if possible. This can be a great savings for you and the ladies are likely to have a better ring than otherwise affordable. Of course, you would not reveal this to the lady of your choice.

From Telegraph.co.uk:

It is Japan we should be worrying about, not America

Japan is drifting helplessly towards a dramatic fiscal crisis. For 20 years the world's second-largest economy has been able to borrow cheaply from a captive bond market, feeding its addiction to Keynesian deficit spending – and allowing it to push public debt beyond the point of no return. Read it HERE.

From Telegraph.co.uk:

Do Saudis have the clout to destroy NYMEX?

The Saudis have dropped a key US benchmark for crude oil – but why?

By Garry White

For Saudi Arabia, it is a philosophical issue that the black gold pouring out of its deserts should be treated as a tangible, physical commodity – not the paper plaything of traders on Wall Street hedging against the weak dollar. This thinking is at the heart of the Middle Eastern country's decision last week to abandon its long alliance with West Texas Intermediate crude – the famous oil used by most global producers to price their exports to the US. Read it HERE.

Another head slap to the dollar. How long will the dollar survive such treatment?

From Ed Steer's Daily Gold & Silver Daily: "The next eight days will be interesting times for the precious metals. Firstly, the U.S. jobs report comes out on Friday... and, with only one exception in the past five years, the 'powers that be' have smacked the gold price the moment they're released... which is around 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. Watch for it! Then, next Tuesday and Wednesday is the FOMC meeting. I'm sure Bernanke will have something to say about "quantitive easing" plans... and how they will manufacture even more money out of thin air. I doubt that they'll touch interest rates, but who knows.

By then, we'll be one week closer to December option expiry on the Comex... November 23rd. Will 'da boyz' try to bury gold and silver prices one more time so they can cover as many shorts as possible? Who knows. I certainly don't... and neither does anyone else for that matter. We'll just have to wait it out, as this market is impossible to call."

Such potential and actual intervention does make forecasting extremely difficult. Remember there are no free markets only manipulation.

Here are the miners from Scottrade:

Here are the currencies from Kitco.com:

BULM last 0.69; BYDDF 9.11; AMNP 0.80; DOW down 56+ to 9732; gold 1068.10, and silver 16.54.

As King David asked when plagued by enemies all around, "How long O Lord?" We must ask the Lord, not only how long, but how much more of His judgment will come upon us before we as His people repent and humble ourselves before Him. You know, it is up to us to respond to His wrathful call for repentance.

We, as His people must understand that His call is to the household of faith primarily. We, too, will experience His judgment, but we have our faith and hope in the faithful King Jesus our brother. We are joint heirs with this true covenantal God of all. He has called us as His people and He is our God in a very special way. All things are working together by Him for our eventual good. We know that we will be with Him forever. Praise Him daily.

Best to each, Doug








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