Thoughts on Markets

Monday, April 06, 2009

G20 Another Non-Event - We trust and depend upon Jesus Christ

There is nothing much to report from the G20 boon dongle. Except, we should be on the look out for more regulation of citizens and their finances. Governments seldom turn to their primary tasks of protecting life, liberty, and property of citizens even during hard times.

But we are not depending upon men, but upon the King of Kings: our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ. He is the sure help daily to those of His family. We are secure and safe for eternity with Him. We must respond to His love and grace by being obedient to His law and teach it to our children and grandchildren for generations to come.

The bear is clawing virtually all markets today. The DOW is down 128; Gold is down 24 to 869.80; Silver is down 0.60 to 12.15, and CEF is down 0.32 to 11.32.

The dollar is not doing very well, either, as you can observe in the graph, below.



So, it is a dismal day in the markets. Our trading stocks are becoming more attractive, but we must be very cautious with the free falling prices in the precious metals. Our trading stocks are, as follows: DROOY 7.022; HL 1.96; HMY 9.24, and VGZ 1.92. These are even lower than our last buying ranges of last week. These are possibly buying ranges which will not last. However, I would recommend caution in buying until we see the metals stop falling and begin to turn upward. Of course, if you do not own any of these, you might begin to pick up some shares at these prices. I would it I had none, but am satisfied with my current portfolio of them. As the metals turn upward, I will be buying more, and will try to send out emails to that effect.

From Chinaview.cn:

Zhou Xiaochuan: Reform the International Monetary System

Special Report: Global Financial Crisis

By Zhou Xiaochuan

BEIJING, March 26 -- The outbreak of the current crisis and its spillover in the world have confronted us with a long-existing but still unanswered question,i.e., what kind of international reserve currency do we need to secure global financial stability and facilitate world economic growth, which was one of the purposes for establishing the IMF? There were various institutional arrangements in an attempt to find a solution, including the Silver Standard, the Gold Standard, the Gold Exchange Standard and the Bretton Woods system. The above question, however, as the ongoing financial crisis demonstrates, is far from being solved, and has become even more severe due to the inherent weaknesses of the current international monetary system. Scan the whole article HERE.

The section titles in the article give a good overview of the contents. It is quite good and I believe that China is intent upon changing from the dollar reserve. It has the level of U.S. debt and clout in the world to make it happen. It could change sooner than many expect. One has to watch how the sales of U.S. debt goes. There are fewer interested buyer, thereof. Also, there is a growing realization that nations are beginning to replace their dollar reserves with other currencies. Can anyone say, "Renmimbi?"

A summary of the impact of threatened gold sales by the IMP from Casey Research's Room:

"At this writing, of China's $2 trillion in reserves, only about 1% is held in gold. There has been credible talk of them boosting that percentage to as much as 10%. At $900 per ounce, the math looks something like this…

At 32,000 ounces per ton, 400 tons equals 12,800,000 ounces. Multiplied by $900, we arrive at a total value of the intended IMF sale of $11.5 billion.

Ready to be deployed against that amount is as much as another 9% of China's $2 trillion reserves -- which adds up to $180 billion. And that's just China. Of course, there are any number of other countries sitting on piles of U.S. dollars and viewing the outlook for those dollars in fairly negative terms.

So, sure, the notion of a big IMF gold sale might spook the gold market a bit… but in the final analysis, it will amount to less than a hill of beans."

The rhetoric is what is important to many in the precious metals. They seems to succumb to the slightest mention of sales. Were China to begin to exchange some of their dollar reserves for gold, that would make the renmimbi more attractive and take away from the dollar.

This is the day that the Lord has made and given to each of us. We shall rejoice and be glad in it. Let us live it to His glory and for the spread of His Kingdom.

Best to each, Doug



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