Thoughts on Markets

Friday, November 06, 2009

Precious Metals Capped Higher - Consider AMNP

We are being given mixed signals on the precious metals. As Ed Steers warns, below, with the November 23 options expiration, there could be a correction coming. If it does, this may be one of the last buying opportunities for a long while as gold is currently pushing toward a break through of the $1100 psychological level. Above that, there is little resistance except for the boyz. Note, too, that central banks have begun replacing dollars with gold. The one detractor is the fact that the Lemmings have not yet taken much notice of the sprinting price of the precious metals.
The graph on 24 Hour Gold clearly shows the boyz in action again. Nevertheless, gold is holding above 1090 which is a nice level.
Silver is also showing mixed signals with the RSI leveling off or turning downward. Silver recently crossed above its 50 Day MA which is a good signal. It is also in about the middle of the upward trough bracketed by the blue lines. Silver is lagging behind gold with a gold to silver ratio very high at 62.86. We would expect it to be 20-40, so silver has a long way to go. Should it correct in the immediate future, I would be interested in some more Silver Eagles.The boyz hit silver, too. Notice that it is at almost the exact time that gold was hammered. Coincidence? NEVER!

From Casey's Ed Steer's Gold & Silver Daily: "I'm still very nervous about a short-term correction between now and December options expiry on the Comex on November 23rd. The silver, gold and HUI charts are all indicating a bearish scenario. Neither silver nor the gold shares have confirmed this record run-up in the gold price, and the RSIs for both are not pretty."

From Forbes.com - Reuters.com:

Sri Lanka c.bank buying gold to diversify reserves


NEW DELHI, Nov 5 (Reuters) - Sri Lanka's central bank has been buying gold for the past five or six months as it diversifies its reserves amid volatile markets, the bank's governor said in an interview on Thursday.

'We have been fairly strong accumulators of gold reserves over the past few months,' Sri Lanka Central Bank Governor Ajith Nivard Cabraal told Reuters in a telephone interview from the southern Indian city of Chennai. Read it HERE.

This is no real big diversification from dollar reserves, but is evidence of the growing trend among banks.

From TownHall.com:

The "Costs" of Medical Care: Part IV

What is so wrong with the current medical system in the United States that we are being urged to rush headlong into a new government system that we are not even supposed to understand, because this legislation is to be rushed through Congress before even the Senators and Representatives have a chance to read it? Thomas Sowell asks profound questions in this article HERE.

From TheHinduBusinessLine.com:

Gold comfort

Ten years ago, almost to the day, Robert Mundell, the Economics Nobel laureate for 1999 predicted that, over the next decade, gold would play a very major role in the world’s central bank reserve systems. As it turned out, the world took almost that many years to realise the importance of his forecast; today, most European central banks and the US Fed hold more than 60 per cent of their foreign currency reserves in gold. This is a short, but very important read - Click HERE.

That is very interesting! There is a diversification from dollars to gold by central banks. I wonder how much of a move in that direction is being taken by the Federal Reserve.

From MoneyMorning.com:

Has Asia Dethroned Detroit as the Auto Sector Leader?

By Martin Hutchinson
Contributing Editor
Money Morning

Back in May I recommended that readers should buy shares in Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) on the grounds that the U.S. carmaker would gain market share from the bankrupt General Motors Corp.

More likely – while Chrysler will become a money-pit that is closed only by political means, and GM will limp on as a smaller and marginally profitable U.S. and European producer – Ford will slim down to become a specialty producer of cars tailored to the tastes and needs of the U.S. market. It’s well known that the auto preferences of U.S. consumers differ greatly from those of their European counterparts.

It comes down to this: Ford should be able to make money by limiting its “world car” ambitions and focusing on those needs.

Detroit Will Need to Learn From Asia

In the world as a whole, the big auto story has been the continued advance of manufacturers from China and India. Read the entire report HERE.

Who would have believed such a story until 2009? My auto repair friend has told me that less repair maintenance in his experience has been for the last two plus years for Toyota, Honda, and Hyndai. These brands normally require only regular maintenance. One of my daughters bought a Santa Fe recently based upon that revelation.

From InReuters.com:

Chinese gold cheaper than IMF's - ex-PBOC adviser

By Zhou Xin and Tom Miles

BEIJING (Reuters) - It would be cheaper for China to buy domestically mined gold than purchase bullion the International Monetary Fund is seeking to sell, a former adviser to the People's Bank of China said on Thursday. Not very long and worth a read HERE.

From ft.com:

View of the Day: Gold dances to its own tune

By James Turk

Published: November 5 2009 15:33 | Last updated: November 5 2009 15:33

Gold’s recent surge to record highs has not been accompanied by the usual market actions explaining its advance – instead, different factors are at work, says James Turk, chairman of GoldMoney.

He notes that the US dollar remains trapped within the same range it has occupied for several weeks. Nor, he says, has gold been tracking other commodities, as evidenced by the CRB Index, which remains below last month’s high. Oil and even silver have not been able to better their highs from October – at least not yet.

“For now, gold is marching to a different drummer,” says Mr Turk. “We are seeing a scramble for physical metal, and that demand is driving gold higher. Buyers are opting for physical gold, not paper gold.” This is an important article which can be read HERE. You are likely to have to register, but it is free for two articles a month.

From TownHall.com:

White House Postelection Arrogance

By David Limbaugh

The White House arrogance on display in denying that Tuesday's election results were a repudiation of President Barack Obama's radical agenda is of a piece with its arrogance in attempting to advance this agenda against the people's will. We should be surprised at the arrogance of the White House? Read it HERE.

From Sprott Management:

Con Job in the Financial Markets Continues

Download it in PDF HERE to read at your leisure.

I am replacing BULM with AMNP for a speculation miner. Here is a graph. I would add more AMNP under $1.00. On the graph we see one detractor in the RSI area. This has turned downward. The MACD seems to be turning upward and the negative volume appears to be turning positive. The volume has increased on the up move; possibly due to some promoting, but it is very strong. The price has significantly sprinted through and above the 50 Day MA. By the way, I have not sold all of my BULM, but I am concerned that it did not positively respond to the strong move of gold.

Here are our miners from Scottrade:

Currencies from Kitco.com:

BULM last 0.69; AMNP 1.02; BYDDF 9.25; DOW off 9 at 9996+; Gold 1094.40; Silver 17.42. Expect volatility.

Trust in the Lord, because He is faithful and ever good and perfect gift comes from Him. Praise Him daily. I hope and pray that each of you are members of a sound Christian church which presents the whole counsel of God, practices the two sacraments ordained by King Jesus, and exercises discipline over the members. King Jesus is coming again, but until the time He comes we are to continue business in accordance with His word.

Best to each, Doug

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home