Thoughts on Markets

Thursday, February 28, 2008

Precious Metals Still Sprinting - Gold Toward $1000

First, I would like for you to examine a quote from Taipan Daily, as follows:

"If you put $100,000 in a bank account and came back 20 years later to find only $50,000 there, you would scream bloody murder. The loss would count as outright theft.

What many fail to realize is that, when a government goes to town with the printing press, the theft is harder to spot but no less real. Printing up new dollars reduces the value of dollars in circulation… the same dollars that you and I hold. That day-to-day erosion of purchasing power is like draining money out of the bank account, just a little at a time."

This puts the situation which currently exists in a very concise, clear way. The Federal Reserve and our government are stealing from us. When God in the Bible says, "Thou shalt not steal," He is speaking to individuals, businesses, and governments.

Gold is at 964 now and seems to be racing toward $1000 at present. Silver is establishing 27 year new highs and is at 19.68 now. The mining stocks have joined in on the parade, too. I certainly pray and hope that each of you have invested in these areas in the past.

It would seem that we are in line for a correction soon, but the precious metals seem disinterested in such a move. We shall have to wait and see.

Best to each, Doug

Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Gold and Silver Sprinting Again

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The dollar has really taken a beating as shown on the first graph
. Consumer confidence, housing reports, and the Fed talking heads almost announcing a further cut in interest rates pounded the dollar into the ground. That is a nasty graph which seems to show that the dollar will continue to dig into the ground. However, again we must wait and see.

The low term upward trend of precious metals and downward trend of the dollar are still intact and are very likely to continue. There will be sandy spots and bumps on the way, but both are fixed for the time being.

Well, both silver and gold hit new highs during the last 24 hours. At each such move, I ask myself if this is it? Then, I return to realism and answer, I don't know. Further in time, I remind myself that the technique to use is to wait and see. However, it seems that we should be getting a correction after these days of rapidly increasing price.

The mining stocks are moving upward. The silver miners are really moved. PAAS is up 1.61 now to 40.83; SLW is up 0.42 to 17.40, and SSRI is up 1.80 to 37.04. Silver is now 19.23 and gold 568.30. Both are strong in spite of the pending sale of gold by the IMF which is supported by the White House.

The Lord seems to be really shaking the commodity markets, including our precious metals. If you are waiting for the next correction to add to your portfolio, you must be patient. It could come at any time, but may not arrive until gold hits the magic of the psycological $1,000 point. Hang in there, because the trend which now exist will continue for some time.

Praise the Lord for letting us get on board. If you are not now on board, be very careful in entering the market at these levels. Even in a correction, it is likely not wise to sell the farm and jump in with both feet. make measurer investments as the market moves back up after a correction.

Best to each, Doug

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Silver on the Move - Gold Consolidating



Looks as though we have hit another sandy spot in the gold bull market. Silver seems to have come to life and is making up the difference.

The IMF pending sale of gold into the market is likely to have had some impact on the price of gold. We have also had news that the higher price of gold has slowed some of the jewelry sales in India; however, the purchases of metals and coins still remains strong. The demand for precious metals, particularly gold by the masses of China is increasing steadily.

Though gold is in a tight trading range at present, we are overdue for a correction as the bull market continues. At times corrections are healthy in a strong bull market. Too fast a run up in price always causes some fear of a drop. The third phase will sky rocket the price of precious metals, but will also end in the final blow off.

At present gold is at 934.30 (off 4) and silver at 18.19 (up 0.18). Wow, silver is really hanging in there well and pursuing higher levels. Glad to have a balance of gold and silver in our portfolios, are we not?

The mining stocks are off for the most part today. Here are some: AGXM 1.40; CDY 1.24; CDE 4.84; DROOY 12.10; GFI 13.99; GSS 4.099; HMY 12.18; IAG 7.53; KGC 23.84; KRY 1.65; MRB 5.28; NEM 49.31; VGZ 5.35; and XRA 4.55. The Indexes & ETF: CEF 13.2599 Up due to holdings of silver; GDX (miners) 50.63; and GLD 92.23. Silvers: PAAS 36.008; SLV 180.50; SLW 16.40; and SSRI 33.7597.

Let us continue to praise the Lord for His loving care of His people. We are not always spared from set backs and challenges, but He is with us always. We are eternally safe with Him. Thus, we can even rejoice during times of "troubles" and seek to know what He is teaching us through trials. He never tries us beyond what we are able to stand and always provides an eventual way of escape. Praise Him daily for His care.

Best to each, Doug

Thursday, February 21, 2008

Have You Checked Precious Metals Today?

Notice that gold is up strongly against the dollar, but down in a number of currencies. Thus, the dollar is mixed today.I suggest you check at Kitco.com .

Gold has been as high as 954+ and has been trading around 950 all day. It is now 949.50. Silver has done about the same with a high of 18+ and is now at 17.86. Platinum has been pushing 2190 and is now about 2185. The precious metals are sprinting ahead. These prices should make the common media today. Maybe, even the TV entertainers (They tend to call themselves reporters, BUT.) will relent and give out some word on these prices.

Those of you who have been on board for some time should be thankful to the Lord for this current blessing. Remember that He is in control, so praise Him and show sincere gratitude. He deserves all the credit. We should not take credit for ourselves. Every time the Israelites did that He sent them into captivity. They never did learn. We must learn that lesson and apply it in our lives.

There are likely to be corrections along the way, but $1000+ gold is obviously not as far fetched as some would like to believe. I will be cautiously adding with each correction, regardless of how small it may seem. My purchases will be incremental with few dollars at a time. I like Vista Gold (VGZ) currently.

By the way, both Durban (DROOY) and Harmony (HMY) are strongly above $11 presently. They are some of my core holdings.

While the temptation is to sell into this rise in price, I am holding on and resisting the temptation to sell anything in precious or base metals or other natural resources. The stocks in these sectors are remaining comfortably in my portfolio. Even some of the options are keepers.

Study and make your own decisions. My decisions may not be right for you all the time.

Best to each, Doug

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Gold Bouncing About - Challenging Our Resolve

Gold closed at 906.10 on Monday; 927.70 Tuesday, and for the last 24 hours the high was 930.10 and the low 912.80. It is now 919.90. Silver acted about the same: Monday close 17.08; Tuesday 17.53, and for the last 24 high of 17.64 and low of 17.21. It is now 17.29. All the precious metals seem to be trading on a higher plateau these days.

Today, gold is down against all currencies except the South African Rand. Though the price seems a bit high compared to last week, it may be a good time to climb aboard or add to our holding. That depends upon your risk tolerance and present portfolio.

Harmony (HMY) is back above 11.00, currently at 11.30, the high for the day, and low of 11.15. It is recovering nicely after being oversold due to the power shortages in South Africa. It remains a strong company and is one of my core holdings. Once again, I am glad to have added shares below 10 recently.

Gold looks to be headed for $1,000.00 in the next few weeks, certainly this year. Estimates run as high as $2,000.00 for this year. With all of the inflation (Increase in supply of unbacked paper currencies) throughout the world, it is a no-brainer for this to happen and possibly be on the conservative side. Price inflation is certain to follow. Of course, regardless of the government reports, we are seeing a great deal of price inflation as we shop and pay our bills today. More is sure to follow as a result of the flow of paper currencies by all banks and governments.

The election rhetoric is concentrated in "sound bites" upon which the masses depend for decisions on voting. I believe we should be concentrating upon the records of the individuals. Their actions should be so loud in our minds that we can not hear their wanton promises which will never be fulfilled when/if elected.

Gold has moved to 920.50. Guess the manipulators are at work. Some day, their influence will be much less and gold will be free to move to its true market value. This is possible regardless of what appears to be happening now.

Once again, it is time to rejoice that our Sovereign God is in complete control. Were we, it would be greatly worse than it may seem today. Looking back on history, one can see the hand of God working among men. He loves His people and always works for their eventual good. He is also a great help in times of challenge, because we can depend upon the great promises in His word. However, it is important to study and meditate daily upon His word to so hide His words in our hearts that we could not sin against Him.

Best to each, Doug

Monday, February 18, 2008

Gold Bull Intact, But Not Sprinting At Present


While the U.S. markets are closed today for Presidents' Day, it is time to think over our investments. The 5-Year Gold Graph, above, clearly shows gold to be in a bull market over the five years of the graph. Presently, it is still in a correction phase, but staying mostly above $900. It is comforting that it is holding above that level.

Once, again, my priorities on investment media remain, in this order with the highest priority first: gold and silver bullion coins in hand; gold and silver Exchange Traded Funds & Trusts (GLD, SLV, CEF) Note: these are good as long as the stock markets remain in operation; pooled gold accounts at; for examples, www.EverBank.com World Markets Metal Select Accounts, www.Gold Money.com, etc.; precious metals mining stocks, and commodity stocks. It is wise to hold some cash to take advantage of dips in the market price of the selected investments.

Remember gold and silver are to be used to preserve wealth while the mining stocks are investments for sale when the third phase of these markets arrives. We will have some warning as precious metals will begin to be a major topic of the conventional media and stock brokerage firms and conversations at parties and among friends. Then the masses will attempt to jump on board and run the market prices upward for the last leg of the bull market.

Options on the stocks and commodity futures are opportunities for the more experienced investors. These are considered to have greater risks, so it is important to know your level of risk tolerance before venturing into these areas. By the way, if you are to trade options, the brokers require a margin account. To trade stocks, one only needs to have a cash account.

Last week, I began purchasing Vista Gold (VGZ). My first purchases, this time around, were in the $5 range. It has been beaten down from a November high of about $7.50. I have been in and out of this stock over the years and it has been good to me. I would consider, for myself, purchases at less than $5. You must make your own decisions. This is a speculation!

As an aside, I use internet discount brokers to save on time and commissions. My favorite is E*Trade, because they have Dividend Reinvestment Plans (DRIPs) for many stocks. I also use Scottrade, because they have low commissions (generally $7 per trade), but do not have DRIPs. These are my personal choices, you decide for yourself. There are many other good internet brokers.

I hope that you have or plan to read and study Michael Crichton's article at the website I sent earlier. It is an important article which is a must read.

I trust that you met in corporate worship with other believers yesterday. That is an important part of our obedience to our Sovereign God and our witness to the world. What a joy it is to meet together with the body of Christ, the New Jerusalem, His church. "Do not neglect the gathering together of the saints, as is the practice of some."

Best to each, Doug

Thursday, February 14, 2008

Precious Metals in a Wild Ride Over Night



Near 3 a.m. NY Time both gold and silver hit highs. Platinum futures went to 2001 yesterday, so platinum is still sprinting higher. Gold is at 909.70, Silver at 17.31, and Platinum 1998. Precious metals are hanging on tightly and should continue to move forward. This appears to be a mini correction at present.

Even if the IMF does sell some 400 tonnes of gold, it should be no more than a minor blip on the trading radar. That is not enough to have any long lasting impact on the price. Gold will continue its climb, as will the other precious metals.

Silver is acting very strongly. The race between PAAS (34.42) and SSRI (33.59) has changed with PAAS ahead for a change. Silver Wheaten (SLW) is showing strength at 15.45, up 0.38 at present.

Our South Africans are holding well. Durben Deep (DROOY) is at 10.81, which I consider a buying range down from 12.11 on January 1st. Harmony (HMY) is also in a buying range at 9.89, down from 13.11 on January 14th. Harmony does seem to have been impacted more than DROOY by the power problems.

Kinross (KGC) is still quite strong among the golds at 22.71. It has been in a range from 24.05 to 18.74 since early January. It is developing a narrowing triangle since January 22nd. Thus, it is looking toward a break out either up or down. It appears to be projecting an upward serge, but one can not really tell at this point in time.

All of our precious metals are in a long term bull market with higher prices on the horizon.

Remember that our God truly has the whole world in His hands and He will have the one He has chosen to be elected this year. We might not be pleased in the short term, but He works ALL THINGS according to His will and nothing can separate His people from His love. Praise the Lord every day of your life.

Best, Doug

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Precious Metals Go Up - Euro May Be Losing Steam

This graph was received from www.worldcurrencywatch.com this morning and points to a real possibility that the Euro is in for some rough times ahead. A double top is a warning, a double to is a louder warning. This also points out that the dollar may do better in the short run, certainly, in comparison with the Euro. This is an interesting change in a lot of folks thinking. I moved from Euros to Metals Select gold and silver last week. Believe that I mentioned that move to you.

I still like the Chinese Renminbi, Swiss Franc, and the Japanese Yen. I use www.everbank.com World Markets for the currencies and the Metals Select accounts.

There is an increase in the news about the recent runs of the precious metals. Of course, the vast majority of the people in America are behind the times in appreciation of gold, silver, and platinum. If you are reading this, you are way ahead of most of our citizens. The precious metals have proven over the centuries to be a valid store of value, particularly, against the unbacked paper currencies of the world.

"High gold prices, supported by supply and demand fundamentals, has prompted Merrill Lynch analysts Monday to substantially increase gold price forecasts to an annual average of $1,000/oz by 2009." from www.mineweb.com this morning.

All that is lacking for the precious metals to reach the third phase when all want to jump aboard is more news. When it is the topic of conversation by virtually everyone, the panic will hit very soon. More news, as that above, will certainly be heard by ever more people.

Some folks may be waiting for a correction for purchases of the metals, but corrections seem to be very short lived and not as severe as in the past. Current prices are Silver 17.22, Gold 906.40, and Platinum 1923. Platinum seems on it way to 2000 in the next few days. I expect to see Gold at 1000+ this year, perhaps by early spring. That, of course, is speculation. However, it is likely well to add to holdings with every correction, regardless of how low it gets.

The precious metals are in a long term bull market which has yet to pick up real steam. It is coming, though. Silver and platinum are still sprinting ahead of gold. One must understand that of the three, gold is a greater threat to banks and central governments. They fear a return to a gold monetary system, because it threatens their monopoly on the paper currencies.

The mere rumor of a nation, such as, China, considering a return to gold backing of the Renminbi is anathama to the other banks and nations of the world. That rumor does exist. Is it just rumor? At this point, I imagine it is, but it is within the realm of possibility. Wow, what a boom that would be for the Renminbi! Can you imagine the Renminbi being the most desirable currency in the world. It would be were it convertible, or at least backed by gold.

The general stock market is showing some signs of life with the DJI up 156.40, at present. It has been difficult to see which way it will go. If the dollar does begin to appreciate against the Euro and the ECM continues to be troubled, we could see the DJI take on real life again. We must wait and see.

Thank goodness that our God is Sovereign in everything. I would hate to think that I had control of markets. You can just imagine the mess I or any other man would make of it. In is also a blessing the Jesus Christ loves us with a love we can only begin to appreciate, but not fully understand. He calls us to love one another as He loves. What wonderful promises are to be found in His word! These give us strength and hope even in times of great challenge.

Best to each, Doug




Friday, February 08, 2008

Gold Finished the Week Nicely

Currency Chg%
X=1$USD
NY Time X=
1$USD
X$USD
=1
Gold
Price/oz
Gold
Chg
Gold
Chg%
US Dollar -- 02/08-16:35 -- -- 922.00 +3.80 up/down +0.41%
Australian Dollar +0.00% 02/08-16:30 1.1166 0.8956 1029.46 +4.24 updown +0.41%
Brazilian Real +0.20% 02/08-16:33 1.7629 0.5672 1625.39 +3.39 updown +0.21%
British Pound -0.19% 02/08-16:35 0.5143 1.9446 474.14 +2.83 updown +0.60%
Canadian Dollar -0.01% 02/08-16:30 0.9995 1.0006 921.49 +3.89 updown +0.42%
Chinese Yuan +0.00% 02/05-20:27 7.1861 0.1392 6625.58 +27.31 updown +0.41%
Euro 0.00% 02/08-16:30 0.6891 1.4513 635.30 +2.62 updown +0.41%
Indian Rupee +0.04% 02/08-14:54 39.6050 0.0252 36515.81 +136.73 updown +0.38%
Japanese Yen +0.05% 02/08-16:34 107.3100 0.0093 98939.82 +361.87 updown +0.37%
Mexican Pesos +0.10% 02/08-16:35 10.7575 0.0930 9918.42 +30.69 updown +0.31%
Russian Ruble +0.02% 02/08-16:00 24.7437 0.0404 22813.69 +89.80 updown +0.40%
S.African Rand +0.27% 02/08-16:34 7.7950 0.1283 7186.99 +10.25 updown +0.14%
Swiss Franc +0.09% 02/08-16:33 1.1025 0.9071 1016.46 +3.27 updown +0.32%

From this www.Kitco.com chart, we can see that gold was up in all the reported currencies. Gold finished the week very strongly. It seems that some of the traders felt more secure with their funds in the precious metal rather than paper currencies. Will we see more of this next week? I don't know, but the precious metals acted very strongly.

Gold finished at 922.50, silver at 17.16, and platinum at 1881. All were up. Maybe we are in for another upward sprint before the next correction. We will have to wait and see how the markets go next week.

The Dow closed at 1282.13; TRANS at 4711.67, and S&P500 at 1331.29. All were down, so the general market did not fare too well. It is about time for an upward bounce in the general market, and we will be watching to see what the market is saying.

Be sure to join in corporate worship on the Lord's Day. It is very important in the present and future life.

Best to each, Doug