Thoughts on Markets

Monday, May 11, 2009

How long O'Lord II - Metals Holding

How long O' Lord? David prayed the same pray in time of great stress. I now pray it for America. God allows the sins of a nation to accumulate until, it is His time for action. We, His people do not know God's timing on almost everything. I believe that His timing is one of the secret things He never reveals to us.

His judgment or wrath being poured out on nations, churches, and individuals is for the purpose of discipline. That is, His punishment should be seen as a blessing. It is designed to push us down to the extent that we will humble ourselves, pray for forgiveness, and turn back to Him. It is much the same as should be expected by earthly fathers. As children, we did not enjoy the discipline of our fathers, but in the long run this was used, under God, to lead us in the paths of righteousness. It was to correct our sinful ways. The bible says, "Spare the rod and spoil the child."

This is true with adults, as well as children. To an extent the state's punishment for crimes is part of God's plan for turning His people back to Him. He is the father of the adult, and exercises discipline over the adult as an earthly father disciplines a child. The bible tells us that if we are not disciplined by God, it is likely that we are not His children. Humble yourself before God and welcome His discipline even though it is not comfortable at the time.

Then, join with me the prayer for America, "How long O'Lord?" Let us urgently pray for fathers to exercise their God given tasks as spiritual leaders within their families, that pastors and elders will lead their churches into repentance before the Almighty, and that magistrates and rulers will recognize that God placed then in their positions to act as ministers of God to punish evil, recognize good conduct, and to exercise justice.

Washington and many liberals elected to office are again using the divide and conquer technique in putting the undefined "poor" against the "rich." This is another tragedy in the making. Such is the cause of rioting in times of recession and depression. It is a technique to turn segments of society against other segments of society. This is the most often technique of communist leaders who want to create unrest in a foreign nation which they want to conquer. It is a strategy which weakens the nation and then gives them an excuse to march in to put down the dangerous situation within the nation. It is a tactic by socialists to make people more easily made wards of the state. Do not fall for this ploy. It is simply that, a game that politicians play to gain more power. I continually pray that God will raise up statesmen to replace the politicians we now have.


Here is our star performer - Hecla Mining Co. It has been on a upward move since just before the middle of March. It has now bumped against its 200 day moving average. Were it to surpass that, it would continue on its upward march. Those of you who bought in below 2.oo have a nice hefty paper profit. You might want to lock it up with a trailing stop of at least 10%. Hopefully, we will not be stopped out. Be sure to make your own decisions. Remember the Wall Street adage, "Sell in May and walk away." True for this year? I do not know.


Gold was not hammered down at the New York opening. It is down 2.70 to 913.50 and that on a down tick. There may be some activity depressing it at this time.

Here are some interesting thoughts on gold from MineWeb.com:

Be wary of the markets - gold still offers the best insurance

Past major bear markets have seen false new dawns which have tended to be short lived and the recent big uptick in stock markets could be another of these, so don't disinvest from gold yet.

Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted: Monday , 11 May 2009

NEW YORK -

In a week that has seen global stock markets continuing to perform positively, gold has done remarkably well given that many experts are predicting the start of a new bull market. There has been little, if any, disinvestment from gold over the period, which suggests there are many out there continuing to hedge their bets. The article is HERE.

Silver was hit hard at the NY open when it spiked down, but is recovering to some extent. It is down 0.08 to 13.91 which is still much higher than two weeks ago. Silver has joined with gold on a down tick.
Some news on one of my core holdings: HMY - Harmony Gold from MineWeb.com:

Harmony Gold reports lower Q3 output and headline earnings per share

Despite the fall in output, Harmony maintained its long term target of achieving 2.2 million ounces a year in 2012, citing a series of new mines the company expected to launch.

Posted: Friday , 08 May 2009

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) -

Harmony Gold Mining Co. (HARJ.J: Quote), the world's No.5 producer, on Friday reported lower output and headline earnings per share for the March quarter at 123 cents from a re-stated 121 cents in the December quarter.

A Reuters poll of five analysts showed they expected the company to post headline EPS of 141 cents for the third quarter. See it HERE.

On the job front - March job losses were revised upward to 699,000 from 663,000 and the general media celebrated that that April job losses were a "mere" 539,000. We will have to wait until June to see how much the 539,000 will be revised upward. With all of the manipulation of this government statistic, I see no reason to rejoice as the trend is to show as pretty a picture as possible. The DOW really reacted upward on Friday to the "rosy" spin put on this by the general media. The fun has eased today and the DOW is now 8470+ down some 104+.

There is great volatility in the general market and it remains a dangerous area for most of us to play. The manipulated economic reports complicate our investment decisions in a similar way to to the stealth impact of unbacked dollar. Most have no concept of a stable currency, used in biblical history. Think about all of the uncertainties in the world and try to envision a very stable currency and the great advantage that would give to economic forecasting. For something which should be very simple; such as, saving for college, would it not be much easier if you knew that the dollar would have a stable value. Then you could estimate that perhaps fees would go up about 1% or so per year and forecast what you would have to put aside for future college expense. What percentage would you use today? Impossible to forecast or even make "educated" guesses.

Here are the prices as of the closing of this posting: Gold 914.10; Silver 13.93; DROOY8.77; HL 3.18; HMY 10.26; SLW 8.60; VGZ 2.12, and SSRI 19.79. All are holding fairly well.

Best to each, Doug





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