Thoughts on Markets

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Dollar Down - Metals Strong - Williams Discusses Morals

Both silver and gold are acting better today. The dollar is down, so our metal prices are moving upward. Gold is 899.80 up 6.50 and silver is 12.78 up 0.29. Both are on up ticks.

The miners are doing well, too. Here are a few >> DROOY is 8.36 up 0.11; HL is 2.69 up 0.12; HMY is 9.77 up 0.11; SLW is 7.99 up 0.29, and VGZ is 2.17 up 0.01. Our star HL is still very strong. She the article on HL, below, which points to some reasons, therefor.



From TownHall.com:

Law vs. Moral Values

by Walter E. Williams

A civilized society's first line of defense is not the law, police and courts but customs, traditions and moral values. Behavioral norms, mostly transmitted by example, word of mouth and religious teachings, represent a body of wisdom distilled over the ages through experience and trial and error. They include important thou-shalt-nots such as shalt not murder, shalt not steal, shalt not lie and cheat, but they also include all those courtesies one might call ladylike and gentlemanly conduct. The failure to fully transmit values and traditions to subsequent generations represents one of the failings of the so-called greatest generation. Read the article HERE.

He is correct in statements that laws and police can never replace moral values. However, he fails to state here that sound moral values flow out of the law of God through His people and churches to society. When the people of God fail to set Godly moral standards for the government and society, we have the chaos that exists today. We need Christian individuals, families, and churches to speak out to society, "Thus, saith the Lord." Without this the moral decay will continue until there is total chaos. There are only two choices God's law or chaos, or to put it another way life or death.

From MineWeb.com:

PRODUCER DISCIPLINE PAVES THE WAY FOR RECOVERY

Worst recession in living memory, but metals already eyeing the sunny uplands

Stay with precious metals, urges RBS, but ensure also that you have industrial metal exposure. April heading to be the best month for prices in 40 years. Zinc is expected to slip into deficit next year and copper in 2011, but aluminium is carrying heavy inventories that may yet increase further.

Author: Rhona O'Connell
Posted: Wednesday , 29 Apr 2009

LONDON -

The latest quarterly Commodity Companion from Royal Bank of Scotland records that the RBS Base Metal Price Index has since the end of 2008 risen by 20% and is on course for further gains. Despite the fact that there is as yet little sign of any real demand growth, a number of elements have allowed commodities to prosper, and base and precious metals have taken the limelight with oil, natural gas and steel having to take a back seat.

The primary factors behind the increase in metals prices so far have been; a) monetary and fiscal stimulus, 2) hefty supply cutbacks) Chinese metals stockpiling and d) the "cash-for-clunkers' boost to auto sales. Read it HERE.

I will be looking into the base metals in the near future. Copper has been a metal that I follow since so much of infrastructure repair and expansion depends upon copper.

News on our star performer from MineWeb.com:

Metals price increases, mining cost decline improve Hecla's bottom line

"Much improved" mining operational results, a substantial increase in reserves at the Lucky Friday Mine, and metals price volatility have improved Hecla Mining's 2009 outlook.

Author: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: Wednesday , 29 Apr 2009

RENO, NV -

Metals price volatility worked to Hecla's favor during the first-quarter 2009 with received silver prices strengthening, gold increasing $186/oz, and lead prices doubling compared with the fourth quarter of 2008.

Meanwhile, Hecla's average cost-per-ounce declined 38% to $7.48/oz from $4.67/oz as silver production increased 128% to 2.86 million ounces, mainly due to the 100% acquisition of the Greens Creek mine in Alaska.

The Idaho-based silver miner reported a net income of $3.9 million or two-cents per share for the first quarter of this year, down from a net income of $12.1 million or 10-cents per share during the first-quarter 2008.

The first-quarter 2009 results include a $6.2 million gain on the sale of Hecla's VelardeƱa mill in Mexico and a gain of $9 million associated with the curtailment of a corporate non-pension benefit plan. The mill was sold for $8 million in cash and 750,000 shares of ECU Silver Mining. The facility had not been used since 2005. Read more about Hecla Mines HERE.

From MineWeb.com:

Gold prices to stay high, but investors to shift to equities, industrial commodities

Scotiabank's Patricia Mohr advises that copper prices have surged to genuinely profitable levels, although zinc and nickel prices still remain below average break-even costs.

Author: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: Wednesday , 29 Apr 2009

RENO, NV -

While gold prices are expected to stay high this year, Scotiabank economist Patricia Mohr predicts that "investor interest is likely to gradually shift first to equities and then to industrial commodities in the next several years."

Mohr also noted that LME copper prices have surged to "genuinely profitable levels" of US$2.16 per pond on April 16, yielding an average 37% profit over average global break-even copper production costs.

Purchases by China's State Reserve Bureau, tight global scrap supplies and higher prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange than on the LME have boosted China's imports, Mohr said. Meanwhile copper stocks on the Shanghai Exchange remain "quite low." More of this HERE.

More on China's purchases of gold from MineWeb.com:

The significance of Chinese gold holding clarification - CPM

The recent announcement that China has increased its monetary reserves of gold by 14.6 million ounces (454 tonnes) is perhaps more significant in the process than in the amount, reckons CPM.

Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted: Tuesday , 28 Apr 2009

LONDON -

In a Market Alert briefing note, New York-based precious metals analysis specialists CPM have pointed out some significant aspects of the announcement of the increased 14.6 million ounce (454 tonne) holding in Chinese gold reserves overlooked in most reports. Chinese gold reserves are now stated as being some 33.89 million ounces - or just over 1,000 tonnes, making it the world's sixth largest holder of gold after the US, Germany, the IMF, France and Italy - excluding, though, the 1,100 tonnes held in the SPDR Gold Trust ETF.

Firstly, it is pointed out that the purchases over the past six years had been made by the Chinese State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) rather than by the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC), which is why the amount of gold had not appeared in China's official reserve figures. Now though, the holding has been transferred to the PBOC and hence the announcement.

CPM reckons this transfer is particularly important in that Chinese government leaders were interested in buying gold over the past several years, but that there was a great deal of internal debate as to whether such gold should be added to monetary reserves held by the Central Bank, or as investment stocks to be held by China Investment Corporation or other non-monetary Chinese government entities. As CPM points out, the real news is thus that that discussion has obviously now been resolved, and the gold has been added to the monetary reserves held by the Central Bank. More HERE.

Here is an article that speaks for itself.

Need a Real Sponsor here

Car Dealers' Next Headache: Inventory Loans

For Chrysler LLC and General Motors Corp. dealerships, slow sales are just part of their worries. Now they're bracing for possible auto-maker bankruptcy filings that could trigger repayment of their inventory loans.

[auto dealer loans GM and Chrysler]

The two auto makers have about 10,000 dealers in the U.S., with the bulk of them carrying considerable debt, mainly from the money they borrow to buy cars that sit on their lots. If Chrysler or GM were to file for bankruptcy protection, the banks extending that credit could immediately begin calling dealer loans, demanding a good portion of the money back and refusing to extend any more inventory financing.

U.S. taxpayers, meanwhile, could be called to the rescue. MORE.

Why should the taxpayers have to bail out the failed automobile industries? Let them pay for their own mistakes.

From Wall Street Journal Opinion:

Busting Bank of America

A case study in how to spread systemic financial risk.

The cavalier use of brute government force has become routine, but the emerging story of how Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke forced CEO Ken Lewis to blow up Bank of America is still shocking. It's a case study in the ways that panicky regulators have so often botched the bailout and made the financial crisis worse. More.

Bank of America has been showing signs of cracking more and more. Perhaps, we have yet to see the full extent of the banking crisis. Others are likely to follow.

Rest in the assurance of the faithful promises of our Sovereign God who is working all things together for our eventual good and for His own glory. We are to glorify God and enjoy Him forever.

Best to each, Doug




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