Thoughts on Markets

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Sovereign God gives wealth! - Hecla & Vista

It is very important for us to remember that the One True God is Sovereign in all aspects of life and death. "It is He who gives you power to get wealth, that He may establish His covenant . . ." (Deu. 8:18) Thus, we must always acknowledge this and thank Him for every blessing He brings into our lives.

Even the unbelievers can succeed for a time, but they will have a lack of foundation for consistency and will finally be lost. We must always find answers to all of life's challenges in the Word of God. Though His book may not explicitly address each detailed event in our lives, it lays a strong foundation of principles upon which all areas of life must be based. This is the one and only way to live a life of righteousness. All of life must be in concert with God's Law Word. There is no other way!

Both gold and silver have a similar reaction at the NY opening; however, the graph of gold is more drastic and has almost a squared top compared to a spike in the silver. Both are remaining a reasonable levels. Both appear to be moving to higher trading ranges.

The reaction of silver at the NY opening was a spike upward then a higher low as it rebounds. Silver is 14.14 up 0.21 and gold is 917.40 up 4.10. Both prices are showing improvement and each is on an up tick at present. The DOW is off about 9 at 8410. Remember that is early in the day's market activity and much can happen during the next few hours of trading.


From MineWeb.com:

GFMS warns of extremely negative fundamentals for gold, silver

GFMS Executive Chairman Philip Klapwijk reckons that fundamentals for both gold and silver are extremely negative, although he concedes that current government policies might prolong the bull markets a little further.

Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted: Tuesday , 12 May 2009

NEW YORK -

Despite the New York Hard Assets convention normally being a haven for gold bugs, the first keynote speaker on the first day was not particularly taken with the near term prospects for precious metals. The convention floor, though, was largely dominated by gold and silver miners who obviously feel otherwise, as do many of the newsletter writers attending the event. Read it HERE.

The volatility in metal prices has been pronounced; however, I see the fundamentals as very strong. My view is from the vast number of unbacked currency injections into economies world wide to the extent that we are not about to avoid inflation in the near future. The unemployment and the euphoria over the "new bull" market in stocks is having a temporary boost to our economy. However, it appears to me that this is nothing more than a bear rally with an ominous end on the horizon with an accompanying drastic drop to new lows coming. Be very careful in any investing in this market.

From MineWeb.com:

Is it time to 'sell in May and go away' again?

After such a surprisingly robust early year performance, is it now time to heed that old stock market adage: "sell in May and go away"? Andy Home* explores the question.

Author: Andy Home*
Posted: Monday , 11 May 2009

LONDON (Reuters) -

Spring is here and after the collective near-death experience of late 2008 global markets are in euphoric mood. Stock markets continue to power upwards, commodities are coming back in favour and previous safe-haven sanctuaries like the dollar and the yen are being deserted. Read it HERE.

I will be a seller of any of my remaining general stocks before the end of this bear rally. In that sense, I agree with the "Sell in May and walk away." sentiment. However, the mining stocks are a different matter.

From MineWeb.com:

After fleeing in 2008, investors return to red hot mining shares

Red hot mining shares are set to keep outpacing other sectors as the top beneficiaries of a growing belief that the global recession will be short.

Author: Atul Prakash
Posted: Tuesday , 12 May 2009

LONDON (Reuters) -

Mining shares have turned red hot this year after a disastrous 2008 and are set to keep outpacing other sectors as the top beneficiaries of growing optimism that a global recession will be shorter than feared. Read it HERE.

I have included at this point the graphs on VGZ and HL. Both are performing well in concert with the above report. In the case of Vista Gold, you can see that both the 50 and 200 day moving averages have been broken and the 50 day average has moved above the 200. That is a strong bullish technical signal.

Hecla Mining has finally moved above its 200 day moving average. It sprinting upward has been much more pronounced than that of VGZ; therefore, the 50 day moving average is well below the 200. When/if the the 50 average does cross that 200, it will be a significant technical signal. The current movement is strong and the volume is holding well. I am using a 10% trailing stop on both of these stocks. That is, on a portion, but not all of my holdings. I suggest that you consider the same.
The rest of the miners are moving strongly upward, too. Here are some of interest: DROOY 8.767; hmy 10.68; SLW 9.04, and SSRI 20.84. The DOW just moved up by 1+. By the way, I bought DAVFF (DIA Jun 84 Call) at 3.10 yesterday for profit if the bear rally continues a bit more. These are call options on the DOW. I will be watching closely to be ready to sell as the rally tops out.

Here is Saturday Night Live's parody on the Bank Stress Test: It is very likely too true and certainly bring the test into question. We should have the same skeptical view of the results. Check it out HERE. You may have to eliminate the Ad, but the stress test show is good!

Gold is 918.80 and silver is 14.17 with both on up ticks as this is brought to a close.

Best to each, Doug






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