Thoughts on Markets

Thursday, August 27, 2009

Bible Instructs in Investments - Gold Hit Again by Boyz

Before we get to the markets, it is important that we keep our focus upon the Sovereign Ruler of All, King Jesus. It is faith in Him which enables us to accept and apply His word in all of life. IN Proverbs 27:23, 24a, we are told, "Be diligent to know the state of your flocks, and attend to your herds, for riches are not forever. . . ." Many of us have neither flocks, nor herds of animals to produce income. However, the principle is clear, we are warned to be diligent in our work, as well as our investments. We are to look after them well, to be sure that they will supply the income to support us an our families. This is an important concept, but it is not to be the center of our lives, that place belongs to King Jesus. As we work, as we study, as we apply what we learn, we must always have an attitude of gratefulness to Him for whatever He provides for us. We can rest in the fact that nothing in heaven or on earth can separate us from His love. What a blessing He is to each of His people. Praise Him daily!


Well, obviously to most of us the boyz are back at work and have been for the last three days. Look at the "coincidence" of the drops on three consecutive days just as the NY opens. Think about it. The precious metals are not be allowed to reach their free market prices. One must have his head in the proverbial ostrich position beneath the beach surface to hide from this truth.
Adding to the "coincidence" is the same pattern on silver. Same deal here!
GLD, our proxy for gold, is showing negative signs for the immediate future. A wedge was formed since near the end of June, and it is shaping up in a technical way that portends negatively for the immediate future. Both RSI and MACD are neutral, at best, but negative in reality. Thus, I expect gold to correct for now. Long term, the bull is in control, but we could experience a set back now and into September.
The miners are in a trading range, as shown below. They have again approached the 50 day moving average and look to be moving below it very soon. The RSI and MACD are neutral to negative. Thus, the coming correction in gold, is tending to impact the miners, as well.
IAG is one of our stronger miners. However, even it is showing negative technicals. It does remain comfortably above the 50 day moving average. This is a positive sign and it may continue in spite of a potential downward move. I would like to add to my holding in IAG around 10.50, but wonder if it will go that low before the fall rally begins.
Here is the graph of HMY which is not a nice graph. HMY has been in a trading range of about 8.50 to 9.70 since early July. It moved to a higher low side trading range at the end of July which is about 9.00. I would be a buyer of HMY below 9.00 as I would like to add some more to my portfolio.
DROOY is showing a sad face for us, as well. The 7.00 low of the trading range seemed to be quite secure. However, the recent moves are rapidly pushing the price toward breaking below 7.00. I would see a break to around 6.50 as a reasonable buying range. Were it to break to about 6.00, I would consider it a great buying opportunity. In the meantime, DROOY is not making us happy campers.

Here is the current DOW. It is not a happy picture. Certainly, we have been in an upward moving trough with the bear rally, but the RSI is showing negative and the MACD is showing neutral. With the DOW Theory non-confirmation by the Transportations, we remain in limbo. The 9500-9600 range appears to be the topping out level. Clearly, the price movement appears to be topping. Any close below about 9400 would send a technical signal to watch out below.

I recall how the crisis "Right here in River City" of the Music Man movie was the heart of the con. Well, the true crisis right here in River City, USA, is unemployment. The government, Obama's as well as during the prior reigns, has used misleading calculations to exclude the many who have simply run out of unemployment benefits and/or just stopped looking for jobs. This fails to provide a true picture of the seriousness of the problem. We should be thankful for www.ShadowStats.com which provides a much better estimate. Below is a comparison of the current calculations. The unemployment has exceeded 20% and is still climbing, though at a lower rate. Until this problem is solved by the non-government employers, we will still be in our recession/depression.
Gold is at 943.03 and silver at 14.07. Both are on down ticks at present. The DOW is off 63 at 9480+. Below are the miners from Scottrade Streaming Quotes.

Stay in the Word of God and seek first His righteousness, and all your needs will be met by the grace of God.

Best to each, Doug

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Is Your Church Relevant - Check it Out - Markets BYDDF

Folks,

I want to call your attention to my email yesterday on the Irrelevance of the many Christian churches today. When in Old Testament times, the prophets were always warning kings with "Thus, saith the Lord," today's pulpits largely ignore the violations of God's word by the civil magistrates. We must recall that the pulpits spoke out strongly against King George of England as he abdicated his responsibility for the crown colonies and turned them over to a foreign government, the English Parliament. Churches are a critically important part of our individual, family, and national life. As governments violate God's word, they must speak out strongly. I urge you to read to read the article by Chuck Baldwin which was attached to the email. Following are my comments contained in that email:

"Folks,

This is critical. I hope you will read and heed what Chuck has written and my rambling which follows here.

While most churches have made themselves irrelevant, each and every Christian must be a member and submit to the authority of a sound local church. King Jesus is the head of every Christian church, as shallow and irrelevant as it may be. The church is His bride.

The signs of a sound Christian church are preaching of the word of God, frequent administration of the two Christ ordained sacraments: Baptism and the Lord's Supper, and the exercise of sound discipline over the members to be certain that they are adhering to the demands of the word of God.

Each of us need the visible church to teach us, to benefit from the sacraments, and to be encouraged to grow in grace by the discipline of the church and fellowship with other believers. It is extremely difficult, at best and very likely impossible for one to live the Christian life without these necessities for growth which are commanded by God and a vital part of church membership and life. Jesus Christ gave to the church the keys to the Kingdom as He was about to return to the right hand of His Father. These keys are to be used to open the door for believers and lock out unbelief.

I, as is Chuck Baldwin, am concerned about the failure of many churches of today which have only the form, but lack the power which was intended for them by Christ the Head.

I remember the hamburger add of a while back in which the funny little lady asked, "Where's the beef?" That is the question you must prayerfully answer about the church you attend. If the worship service is dedicated and centered around entertainment, leave by the closest door and find a church centered upon King Jesus and His word. Make your judgment by comparison of what the church should be as defined in the scripture of the Old and New Testaments. These contain the answers to all of life.

Your spiritual life and that of your family is dependent upon a sound Christian Church. To attend a church, because you are comfortable, it has a lot of programs (most of which are designed to divide the family), the choir sings nicely, you are friends with the people and pastor, the organ music is thrilling, or any other touchy feely thing should stand out as a tip off of the fact that you may have chosen the church for the wrong reason. Ask yourself if you and your family is growing spiritually in this time when the apostate world influence is so strong.

We are in a spiritual war here in America where even our government is anti-Christian along with virtually all media and every bit of peer pressure. We are surrounded and the attack upon us is growing each day.

It is vital that we be strong in the faith and reflect the law of God to all or else we shall continue to experience the chaos which comes from turning our backs on the God of all.

Best to each, Doug"

Now to the markets>>>>

The miners as reflected in the GDX are in a trading range with both the RSI and MACD almost neutral. We may have to wait for the fall to see any great movement out of the trading range. It is encouraging that the price is above both moving averages. Hopefully, we will see the price bounce off rather than move downward through the 50 day average. The individual prices of miners is below the graph compliments of Scottrade streaming quotes.

I am buying DROOY below 7.10. Have current orders in for some at 6.99. Could get it today, but current price is a good buy for me.


Silver got hit early this morning, but seems to be in the process of reversing to the up side. We shall see as the day moves on. Silver is now at 14.25 which is even for the day.

From InvestorsResource.com:

Waiting for the big autumn silver rally

Silver’s fundamentals offer plenty of reasons to be bullish in the coming years. Relentlessly growing global investment demand coupled with reduced production is a recipe for much higher prices. With something like 3/4ths of all the silver mined globally being merely a byproduct, primarily of base metals, supplies will remain constrained. Investors will have to compete in a tiny market for this scarce metal.

While silver’s long-term bullish case is well-known among its investors, this volatile metal also has incredible near-term potential. In the coming months, silver is likely to witness exceptional gains. Unfortunately, the driver of this potential big autumn silver rally is not widely discussed. Thus many investors and speculators still sidelined since the panic risk missing out on this rare opportunity.

And ironically, the stock panic created the silver anomaly that led to this opportunity. Silver has a long history of following gold. Silver traders watch gold for trading cues, so gold action dominates silver psychology. Thus silver typically trades in lockstep with gold. But during the panic, the extreme fear spawned by the brutal stock-market selloff spilled into silver. It forced silver to decouple from gold and plummet far deeper than gold warranted. Read it HERE.

Gold, too, is recovering from a downward fall. It is trading at 943.40 which is down for the day. Following is good news for gold.

From Numismaster.com:

Central Banks Become Net Buyers Of Gold For First Time Since 1987

One of the most respected analysts of gold activity, GFMS (formerly known as Gold Fields Mineral Services), reported last month that "Central banks' swing into net demand territory during the second quarter of 2009 was something of an exception."

The exception is that this is the first time that central banks, in total, have purchased more gold than they have sold since 1987!

However, GFMS went on to say, "We do not believe that this heralds a sustained shift by the official sector from being a net seller to a net buyer. This is above all the case over the next two to three years due to the very high probability that the IMF will dispose of 403 tons of gold."

In its latest report on gold demand and supply statistics, GFMS refused to include central bank gold purchases as part of demand. Paraphrasing their explanation, they said that since central banks are not normally net buyers of gold, they refuse to include it as an element of demand. Read it HERE.

Cash for anything from SeekingAlpha.com:

Stimulus 'Cash for Anything': When Money Isn't Free

By Mike Conlon

First Clunkers. Nowrefrigerators. And I love Peter Schiff’s “modest proposal” of Dough for Dumps. But where will it end? In the latest round of government intelligence, it has been determined that the appliance makers are the next group that deserve to make more money by the powers that be. Should tax-paying citizens be concerned?

One of the major problems with all of this government “stimulus” is that it is taking the decision-making process out of the hands of individuals and putting it in the hands of elected officials. Why? To keep up unrealistic spending patterns to support businesses. Now don’t get me wrong, I’m all for supporting business, but the government is going about this the wrong way. This is boarder-line socialism! And it will have very negative consequences for the U.S. economy and for companies who "benefit" from these programs. Here’s why: Read it HERE.

More on Obamacare from OnLineWSJ.com:

The Whole Foods Alternative to ObamaCare

Eight things we can do to improve health care without adding to the deficit.

"The problem with socialism is that eventually you run out
of other people's money."

—Margaret Thatcher

With a projected $1.8 trillion deficit for 2009, several trillions more in deficits projected over the next decade, and with both Medicare and Social Security entitlement spending about to ratchet up several notches over the next 15 years as Baby Boomers become eligible for both, we are rapidly running out of other people's money. These deficits are simply not sustainable. They are either going to result in unprecedented new taxes and inflation, or they will bankrupt us.

While we clearly need health-care reform, the last thing our country needs is a massive new health-care entitlement that will create hundreds of billions of dollars of new unfunded deficits and move us much closer to a government takeover of our health-care system. Instead, we should be trying to achieve reforms by moving in the opposite direction—toward less government control and more individual empowerment. Here are eight reforms that would greatly lower the cost of health care for everyone: Read it HERE.

Buffet is buying more of BYDDF which is one of our non-metal stocks. This looks to me like a great investment. We may have time to buy as it slowly moves upward. My plan is to buy small chunks of it as the price rises. This stock has a great potential for which I want to be on board with a large number of shares accumulated over time.

From MarketWatch.com:

Buffett powers into electric cars, buying 10% of BYD

TEL AVIV (MarketWatch) - A Berkshire Hathaway Inc. subsidiary agreed to buy 10% of BYD Co., a Chinese producer of rechargeable batteries, electric cars, and car parts, for US$230 million, the companies said late on Friday.

MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co. said in a statement that it would buy 225 million shares of Shenzen-based BYD /quotes/comstock/11i!byddf (BYDDF 6.02, -0.12, -1.95%) /quotes/comstock/22h!e:1211 (HK:1211 46.15, -0.55, -1.18%) for HK$1.8 billion.

BYD's Website says the company's 130,000 workers produce information-technology products including nickel-cadmium and lithium-ion rechargeable batteries, mobile-phone displays, keypads and housings; laptop-computer keypads, and more. Read the article HERE.

Best to each, Doug

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Special Situation - Reivew of stocks - Thanks to George and John for America

At times, there are special situations which are interesting to me. This one was pointed out by Richard Russell of Dow Theory Letters. It is a Chinese company into batteries for cells, autos, etc. They are moving into autos from the latest reports. I have bought this one over time for from $4.20 to $5.35 per share. I like to buy in smaller increments as the price increases. Dollar averaging upward is much less risky than dollars averaging as the price moves down. The latter is more like trying to catch a falling knife. Not much fun, unless the stock turn around and moves up. Deadly, if it does not!
BULM, a minor with potential, is a speculative play. It is not for those who are fearful and would lose sleep over an investment of this type. It has the potential of great profit as gold increases in price over time. It is not solely dependent upon gold, but has other minerals, as well. I have taken a position in this and may buy more in small increments (2000 shares) as (and if) the price continues to rise. I will be ready to sell half of my holdings if it reaches a double. That will give me the seed dollars for other investments.

As we begin today, gold is at 948.30 on an up tick. It has been higher today, dropped a bit and seems to be climbing again. Here is the GLD graph which serves as an up to date proxy for gold.
GLD has been in a wide trading range (red trend lines) since about June 8. It has been very volatile. From a technical perspective, the graph shows very strong performance with the prices well above the 50 and 200 moving averages. The black trend lines reveal the formation of a wedge from which there should be a break out. Which way is the question, the answer for which we must wait as the wedge forms or breaks down.

In contrast to the strong graph on GLD, we see the example of a very poor graph for the US Dollar, below. The dollar is locked in a long term bear trend from which we see no end as the Federal Reserve and Federal Government continues to be on a path of destruction of the dollar to "save" the economy and grab more central control. The battle cry from Washington is "Damn the dollar, stimulate and spend full speed ahead!" The dollar is well below the 50 and 200 day moving averages. Worst than that, the 50 day moving average is far below the 200 day. Thus, there seems nothing more than little upward bursts of strength from time to time to keep investors interested in the dollar and lending to support our governmental spending binge.
Below is the graph of Silver Wheaton: a star performer. Here is an example of bull market stock which is tracking the upward trend of silver in a big way. Not only is SLW in a rather well defined upward trend (black lines), but there is a clearly defined "W" within the trend which indicates further upward move. Note that the bottom right "V" of the "W" bounced off the lower trend line rather strongly. I like that move and consider it very positive for SLW. I am pleased to have it as a core holding.

Both Harmony and DRD Gold are giving us a bit of heart burn presently. HMY, particularly, is below its 50 and 200 day moving averages and the 50 day is below the 200 day. That is not encouraging, at all. DROOY is in a similar situation. I am still holding both of these and look forward to higher gold prices for them to move higher.

Below, look at the graph of a healthy gold miner, IAMGold. This is a strongly positive graph. IAG is a solid miner and does well most of the time. The trend since early July (red lines) has been upward and the shorter trend in black lines has given us an even greater upward move. This is another of my core holdings.

China has slowed its purchases of US debt and is spending dollars from its vast reserve of dollar buying up resource companies all around the world. They have made many purchase in Africa, Central & South America, and Canada. Also, they are using some of these dollars to build more infrastructure.

Europe and China have become the largest exporters in the world. Europe joined in just this month. The recovery in Europe seems to be going better than ours. We are still not out of the depression with 20+% unemployment. The housing market bust has come to San Antonio as I see many more "For Sale" signs out than just last month. Other parts of America are still struggling with the popped bubble worse than here. Commercial real estate is suffering as well. The delinquent payments and foreclosures are relentlessly marching to higher numbers.

We must still remind ourselves that we must turn back to the Lord and His way in families and churches before He will remove His judgment upon our nation. We need leaders who will call the nation to repentance. Even the pagan nation of Nineveh was spared God's wrath when the king repented and called the people to repentance after Jonah presented God's message to them. The Sovereign God of all is the One through His providence gave us These United States of America. Our founding fathers were not all Christian, but the prevailing influence was definitely Christian based upon the comments of John Calvin in the Geneva Bible. George Washington is aptly called, "The Father of our nation," because the Lord called him and preserved him for this task. Perhaps, we should recognize John Calvin as the "Grandfather of our nation." Calvin's view of Scripture and the Civil Magistrate paved the way for a Godly revolution unlike the abomination of the French and later the Russian revolutions. Praise God daily for His provision. America can again become the light to the world if we will return to Him in stead of seeing the Federal Government as our messiah.

Best to each, Doug

Friday, August 21, 2009

Dollar Down - Precious Metals Up - More Inheritance

Spot gold has shown some life over the last 24 hours. It is now at 953.30 on an up tick.

GLD a proxy for gold (GLD is updated during the day while the gold graph only at the end of the day.) is showing a balanced triangle formation which does not give us an indication of which way it will break out. Presently the RSI and MACD (red circled) indicate further upward movement.
The miners are showing a pattern similar to that of gold, but RSI and MACD show a more distinctive upward move.
Silver is showing a stronger move that that of gold over the last 24 hours. It is presently at 14.15 on an up tick.
Using SLV as a proxy for silver, we find a graph similar to that of gold; however, the lower trend line of the triangle is more steeply upward than that of gold. This is a move positive technical indicator, but we still must wait and see the break materialize. Both the RSI and MACD are stronger positive than in the gold graph.
Silver Wheaton has a graph almost technically identical to that of silver. Perhaps, silver will be the winner percentage wise over gold this time around. Both precious metals are benefiting from a lower relative value of the dollar. The Euro is $1.43+ today. It would not be a good time for us to visit Europe as we would see the costs very high compared to here. The European economy is showing more strength than here in America. The European Central Bank has been much more conservative in using stimuli for their economy and the recovery there seems to be exceeding that of here. Europe is benefiting from this discretion.
Here is a look at the current prices of the miners from Scottrade Streaming Quotes:

Almost all of the miners are up strongly today as the dollar weakens. Long term the dollar will continue downward with bursts of power along the way. It may be wise to sell a small portion of mining stocks or place trailing stops as the price of the metals rises. There should be sandy spots along the way and I will be trying to lock in some profits and gain cash as the prices rise. You consider you financial position and make decisions with which you feel comfortable.

A look at foreclosures from TheDailyPfennig.com: "The proportion of homeowners delinquent on their mortgage or in foreclosure rose to its highest levels in four decades. An ominous sign for the US economy is that the problem loans have shifted away from the subprime borrowers to those driven into delinquency by unemployment. More than half the mortgages in the foreclosure process during the second quarter were prime loans. So while this morning's data may show a bump up in monthly home sales, the US is still far from being out of the housing problems."

We are still not our of the woods on the bursting housing bubble, but in another phase of the fiasco. There is much more to come as the unemployment increases.

From WorldNetDaily.com:




FAITH UNDER FIRE
Christian girl begs state: Don't let them kill me!
Judge decides fate of honor student, cheerleader who fled Muslim parents

Posted: August 20, 2009 8:27 pm Eastern

By Chelsea Schilling

A young Christian runaway in foster care awaits her hearing tomorrow when Florida authorities will decide whether she will be forced to return to her Muslim parents – whom she says will kill her for converting to Christianity.

Fathima Rifqa Bary, 17, an honor student and cheerleader, was raised in a Muslim family in Columbus, Ohio. She became a Christian four years ago as a result of her interactions with children at school.

Atlas Shrugs' Pamela Geller has followed Bary's case closely, reporting that the girl's friends accompanied her to the school counselor after they noticed bruises covering her arms and legs that allegedly resulted from beatings by her father and brother.

"The middle school, in a serious dereliction of duty, did not report these beatings to child welfare services," Geller reported. "Beatings were random, violent, unprovoked. Take, for example, when Rifqa and her father Mohamed were driving in the car. He would force her to wear the hijab (head covering), which she hated. In her discomfort she would slouch down, embarrassed, and her father would haul off and sock her in the face so that she never forgot to sit up straight in her costume. The beatings were regular and so much a part of the landscape of Rifqa's life, she became inured to them …" Read the article HERE.

As much as there is misuse of the Child Welfare Services here in America, there seems to be times when it fails to rescue children in real trouble. Perhaps, too much emphasis is given upon taking children from families on the basis of suspicion without any proof. Then when true needs are obvious, they are ignored. There are many failures as the system is out to destroy the family.

More on God's word on inheritance: The first commandment with a promise is "Honor your father and mother that your days may be long upon the land which the Lord your God is giving you."

We inherit from our parents life, learning, and material wealth. Not all families have equal material wealth, but as children, we normally will inherit whatever they have accumulated through the years. Part of honoring of parents is to thank them for life, to be diligent in learning from them, and to preserve and increase whatever material wealth they leave to us. All of life is to be lived to the glory of God and to enjoy Him forever.

God provides us with the parents He selects. Neither do our parents select us individually, nor do we individually select our parents. God matches perfectly the parents and the children in accordance with His Sovereign will. The exception is in the case of adopted children which are selected by the parents. Of course, even in this the Lord decides and brings the prospective parents to the selection of the children He has willed for them. So whether we are raised by Christian parents or not, we are to honor them and respect them. In doing so, we are honoring God, Himself, by obedience to His word.

Some day, in God's timing and by His grace, you are likely to become a parent. None of us is truly perfectly prepared to be parents; however, each must pray for the mate that God has ordained for us and prayerfully study the word of God to discern our parental duties. Trusting in Him, we do the best job of parenting in accordance with His word that we can. By His grace our feeble efforts will be used to mold our children to love and obey the Lord.

Best to each, Doug



Thursday, August 20, 2009

Unemployment 20+% - Inheritance in the Eyes of God

Silver Wheaton is well above the 50 and 200 day moving averages and is pushing up near the upper trend line. Both RSI and MACD have turned slightly positive, too.

The Gold Bugs Index remains above both averages, but seems to be in a downward sloping trough trend. It is near the upper trend line of the trough. The RSI is slightly positive and the MACD looks to be turning positive, but not quite yet.
For the GLD proxy for gold, the only positive technical indicator is that the price has once again crossed upward over the 50 day moving average. Gold has suffered from a slight upward move in the dollar.
Below are the miners prices from the Scottrade streaming quotes.

I sold some, not all DROOY in the 7.55+ range today to lock in some profit from recent buys. It is good to do that from time to time to recover some seed dollars and for short term profit.

Warren Buffet on inflation from NYTimes:

The Greenback Effect

In nature, every action has consequences, a phenomenon called the butterfly effect. These consequences, moreover, are not necessarily proportional. For example, doubling the carbon dioxide we belch into the atmosphere may far more than double the subsequent problems for society. Realizing this, the world properly worries about greenhouse emissions.

The butterfly effect reaches into the financial world as well. Here, the United States is spewing a potentially damaging substance into our economy — greenback emissions. Read it HERE.

From ShadowStats.com:

ShadowStats.com is a good source of statistics at which you will find more realistic reports on economic measures than that supplied by the government manipulated ones.

As I was reading in Proverbs today, I found "House and wealth are an inheritance from fathers." (Pr. 18:14a). Note that the inheritance is from fathers plural. That is in perfect concert with Pr. 13:22 which is "A good man leaves and inheritance to his children's children." The responsibility of the parents before God is to bring up their children in the nurture and admonition of the Lord to prepare them to carry on the God given mandate of bringing all into submission to King Jesus. We are to give our children and grandchildren a multigenerational vision, because it is a long term project which began with Adam and Eve in the Garden of Eden.

However, both spiritual and material inheritance is required to equip them for the mission. First, they must be spiritually prepared to "seek first the Kingdom of God and His righteousness." Then they must be materially equipped through material inheritance to continue this work. Thus, we see in the Proverbs verses the multigenerational inheritance which comes from succeeding fathers, grandfathers, great grandfathers, etc. The family, God's basic unit of society, is a continuing institution which grows over many generations.

It is important to teach children that they must shoulder this responsibility and must not let anything stand in the way of continuing this vital mission. To go down any other path is the way of death, but to follow it, regardless of the cost, is life, itself. This is an awesome responsibility, but one in which there are many trials, but a wonderful, fulfilling life.

The Sovereign God of all demands this of every person.

Best to each, Doug

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Gold Jumps Upward - Bejing Replacing Detroit

Silver seems headed up, but not as rapidly as gold today. Silver is 13.75 which is down a bit from yesterday, but recovering now.
Gold has sprinted ahead to 942.40 up 4.30 now.

The dollar is showing mixed signals. The index has pushed upward toward the 50 day moving average, but has yet to break through. The 50 day average remains below the 200 day. The RSI in the top section of the graph is turning negative while the MACD in the lower section seems positive. Which way for the dollar. Possibly up in the near term; however, with the price of gold sprinting ahead, it would seem that the dollar will be lower today.
Below is a BigCharts.com graph on a speculative mining stock. The stock is diversified into several mining products. It has potential which should be worth a shot. I have purchased shares at 0.43 and 0.44. The price is such that one can purchase a great number of shares with little cash, hold for a double (if it comes), and then sell half to get his seed dollars back for future investments. For me, it seems to be worth the risk. Note the increased volume circled in red as the price increased. These are positive signs which could have been produced by hype, and time will tell.
Here are the miners again from Scottrade streaming quotes:
The miners are beginning to respond to the higher price of gold, but are a bit slow to move upward. The DOW is off about 20 at present to 9197.+.

From MineWeb.com:

EXCELLENT QUARTER FOR GOLD DEMAND

Q2 gold demand robust: Indian sales up and central banks net buyers

Despite an uptick in jewellery demand, gold had to shoulder a weighty burden of excess supply in the second quarter

Author: Rhona O'Connell
Posted: Wednesday , 19 Aug 2009

LONDON -

A recent piece on Mineweb carried the headline "Gold needs good news if it is to break through the $960 barrier". The latest issue of Gold Demand Trends, published by the World Gold Council using figures compiled by independent research house GFMS gives some good news, but illustrates also that the market still has some way to go before overall physical demand can again be regarded as truly vibrant, although some of the early necessary ingredients are there.

In the second quarter of this year the official sector was a net purchaser with a quarter-on-quarter swing of 66 tonnes (from sales of 52 tonnes in Q1 to purchases of 14 tonnes in Q2), while scrap supplies fell from a quarterly record of 566 tonnes to 334 tonnes in the second quarter. Mine production increased from 582 tonnes to 622 tonnes, although when dehedging is taken into account, net mine supply increased by just 27 tonnes, to 606 tonnes. This means that overall net supply fell from 1,197 tonnes in the first quarter to 940 tonnes in the second, although it was still some 16% higher than in the second quarter of 2008 as a result of higher mine production, lower mine de-hedging and increased scrap supply. Read it HERE.

From MineWeb.com:

SIGNIFICANT SUPPLY SHORTAGES WILL CONTINUE

Commodities supercycle still with us and stronger than ever

In 2007, she claimed the current commodities super-cycle would last another 20 years. But given the economic implosion since that time, could it still be true? "Absolutely," says Carmel Daniele, founder, CEO and CIO of CD Capital. Interview with The Gold Report.

Author: The Gold Report
Posted: Wednesday , 19 Aug 2009

VANCOUVER, BC -

"The crisis that occurred last year after Lehman's collapse just interrupted the cycle," explains Carmel Daniele, adding that it "is actually going to seal the next stage of the super-cycle. . .it will make it stronger and last even longer." Significant supply shortages resulting from both the current lack of money flowing into exploration and planned infrastructure spend by emerging countries will continue. Read it HERE.

From MoneyMorning.com:

Why Asia Will Supplant Detroit as the Global Center of the Auto Industry

By Martin Hutchinson
Contributing Editor
Money Morning

Asia is poised to become the “new” Detroit.

Here in the United States, at a cost of a mere $3 billion, the “Cash-for-Clunkers” program appears to have given new hope to the U.S. auto industry.

But that new hope is destined to be short-lived.

It’s true that - in terms of value delivered for the money invested - “Cash for Clunkers” has eclipsed every other stimulus program that has been tried. But the program has a projected lifespan of only three months, meaning it can’t reverse the powerful global forces that are destined to turn the U.S. auto market from leader to laggard on the global stage. Read it HERE.

From TownHall.com:

Whose Medical Decisions? Part II
by Thomas Sowell

When famed bank robber Willie Sutton was asked why he robbed banks, he said: "Because that's where the money is."

For the same reason, it is as predictable as the sunrise that medical care for the elderly will be cut back under a government-controlled medical system. Because that's where the money is.

My experience is probably not very different from that of many other people in their seventies. My medical expenses in the past year have been more than in the first 40 years of my life-- and I did not spend one night in a hospital all last year or go to an emergency room even once. Read it HERE.

From TownHall.com:

Is Racial Profiling Racist?
by Walter E. Williams

Harvard Professor Henry Gates' arrest has given new life to the issue of racial profiling. We can think of profiling in general as a practice where people use an observable or known physical attribute as a proxy or estimator of some other unobservable or unknown attribute. Race or sex profiling is simply the use of race or sex as that estimator. Profiling represents mankind's attempt to cope with information cost. God would not have to profile since God is all knowing.

People differ by race and sex. Let's look at a few profiling examples to see which ones you'd like outlawed. According to the American Cancer Society, the lifetime risk of men getting breast cancer is about 1/10th of 1 percent, or 1 in 1,000; and 440 men will die of breast cancer this year. For women, the risk of developing breast cancer is about 12 percent, or 1 in 8, and 40,610 will die from it this year. Should doctors and medical insurance companies be prosecuted for the discriminatory practice of routine breast cancer screening for women but not for men? Read it HERE.

Rest in the sure knowledge that the Sovereign God of all is in control. All things are working in accordance with His will. There are no accidents or surprises in His mind. Thus, we are strengthened by faith in Him and the assurance of eternal salvation through the death of His Only Begotten Son in our place. Yes, the Lord Jesus Christ took upon Himself the sins of all of His people to bring about a reconciliation for us with the Father.

Best to each, Doug

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Obamacare - Precious Metals - China

Here are the miners about forty-five minutes into trading. All are up reacting to the small upward move in precious metal prices (Gold 935.30 and Silver down a bit to 13.93)





From TownHall.com:

Whose Medical Decisions?
by Thomas Sowell

There was a time when rushing a thousand-page bill through Congress so fast that no one has time to read it would have provoked public outrage. But now, this has been attempted twice in the first 6 months of a new administration.

The fact that they got away with it before, with the "stimulus" bill, may have led them to believe that they could get away with it again.

But the first bill simply spent hundreds of billions of dollars. The current "health care" bill threatens to take life-and-death decisions out of the hands of individuals and their doctors, transferring those decisions to Washington bureaucrats. Read it HERE.

From TownHall.com:

NHS vs. USA
by Cal Thomas

PORTADOWN, NORTHERN IRELAND -- For the past month I have watched British media report and comment on the American health care uproar. American cable networks are also available here. The back-and-forth reporting and commentary resembles a replay of the War of 1812, this time with verbal salvos. Conservative American politicians and commentators fire at the British NHS system and the British fire back, sometimes on the same program, repeating the Democrats' mantra of how 47 million Americans are "uninsured" and how medical treatment in the United States depends on how much patients, or their insurance companies, will pay. Here, they say, health care is "free," thanks to taxpayers, a minority of which (i.e. the successful) bears ever-greater amounts of the burden. Read it HERE.

General comments on Obamacare from Casey's Daily Dispatch: "In all sincerity, I wish the president and his allies would propose a program that actually made sense. Starting with massive cuts in taxes and regulations – in the size of government itself. That would allow the country’s businesses to become hyper-competitive in global markets, and individuals to be able to keep much more of what they earn and therefore to be able to afford proper insurance. At that point, if some of the remaining tax revenues were used to provide baseline insurance made available to the truly indigent – who could argue?

But reading the president’s op-ed, written no doubt by the best political writers (your) money can buy, I’m reminded of a good old-fashioned “chicken in every pot” stump speech.

It all sounds so wonderful. But the devil, of course, is in the details. It makes no sense to usher in universal healthcare if it is poorly conceived, or conceived in such as way as to satisfy various political back-scratching without regard to the efficiency or sustainability of the thing. Medicare might be a great idea, but that it has run amok and is headed for insolvency makes it hard to hold up as a guiding light.

This all gets back to the notion of positive rights. Yes, I would like every American to have a roof over their head and three square meals a day. Actually, I would like that to be true for everyone in the entire world. But there are certain immutable laws of economics that can’t be ignored. Starting with “There’s no such thing as a free lunch.”

The only way you can give away free health care, or free chickens, for that matter, is if you either own it in the first place, or you take it away from someone else.

Or, to quote Margaret Thatcher, “The only problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other’s people money.”"

From MineWeb.com:

GOLD UPDATE

YESTERDAY'S TOP STORY: Gold needs good news if it is to break through the $960 barrier

Even though the yellow metal has struggled to break through the psychological resistance level, the long-term trend remains very positive especially in light of the new Central Bank Gold Agreement.

Author: David Levenstein
Posted: Monday , 17 Aug 2009

JOHANNESBURG -

The last week for gold was pretty much uneventful which is not surprising as there was an absence of any fresh news that could have had an impact on the precious metal. The German economy unexpectedly grew by 0.3% as stimulus and rate cuts helped the region's largest economy end its worst recession since WWII. An equal improvement in France nearly pulled the entire economic region out if recession as it only contracted by 0.1% versus expectations of 0.5%. Negative growth from Italy, Austria and the Netherlands helped drag the broader reading lower and slowed Euro gains. US CPI remained unchanged. Read it HERE.

From MondayMorning.com:

What Companies Are Profiting From China’s Commodities Crusade?

By Jason Simpkins
Managing Editor
Money Morning

While the rest of the world is grappling with the global slowdown, China is figuring out ways to exploit it.

Over the past few months, China has capitalized on the financial turmoil that has paralyzed the world’s “developed” economies by stocking up on cheap commodities, weeding out competition to its largest state-run companies, and acquiring even more foreign assets.

Indeed, with China’s economic growth projected at an enviable 8% for this year, that country’s government has been able to spend less time promoting immediate growth and liquidity, and more time preparing for the economic renaissance that almost certainly seems to be the Asian giant’s destiny. Read it HERE.

From MondayMorning.com:

Three Reasons China is Positioned to be the Oil Sector’s Next Big Profit Play

By Keith Fitz-Gerald
Investment Director
Money Morning/The Money Map Report

If you’re looking for the next “Big Oil” play, bet on Beijing.

As we’ve been reporting for the past several years. China has been on a global commodities shopping spree, which includes locking up every source of oil that it can. The Red Dragon has cut deals in Africa, South America Russia and the Middle East - and won’t stop there. Even the mainstream news media is finally becoming aware of this crucial trend.

But here’s the thing. It’s not enough just to know that this is happening. In order to profit, an investor really needs to understand why it’s happening - and to invest accordingly. Investors who lack this insight may make the strategic misstep of betting heavily (or exclusively) on the Western heavyweights - Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM, BP … Read it HERE.

From Bis.org:

For a discussion of the five stages download the pdf article HERE. This is an interesting article.

Best to each, Doug






Monday, August 17, 2009

Gold Down - Silver Down - Buying?

Gold is now 932.40. This is not a close for the day, but an early quote just before the opening. If this continues, we may have another buying opportunity for the miners. I hope to publish this just after the opening to give each of us time to seize the opportunity if it is presented to us.
Silver is following gold in the drop though silver is holding above 14.
The 24 hour graph on gold shows how the price has dropped early today. The drop has been steady since Asian markets opened.
I am going to present the miners using the Scottrade streaming quote chart. By the way, this is another great resource offered by Scottrade. Thus, I will not have to type each individual price. Aside from the miners, I like BYD. This is the stock mentioned by Richard Russell which is heavily into automobile batteries and moving into cars. It is a Chinese company which gives it extra appeal to me. Here is the recent graph on it. Note that it dropped a bit giving us another buying opportunity if it is right for you. I bought at 4.20, 5.35, and 5.55. Will be interested in more soon as the price continues to rise or on dips such as we saw on Friday.
Here are the miners at open. There seem to be several good buys: HL<3; class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">Hn><9; and some others. Check them out.
The DOW is off 180+. The Univ. of Michigan Consumer Confidence dropped to 63.2, a five month low during August. The Euro is off a bit to 1.4065 and the dollar is showing a bit of temporary strength.

I am rushing to get this out early. Continue to look to the sovereign Lord of all. He is in control of everything. Rest in Him.

Best to each, Doug