Thoughts on Markets

Thursday, April 16, 2009

Stocks & Metals - Providence of God

Below is a 1 month graph of HL, our star trading stock. It has outperformed the others on our list. Since about March 23rd, it was in a trading range of about 1.90 to 2.20. Then on April 13th, it broke out upward to 2.35 and has been trading upward above 2.40. Any correction to about 2.00, I would be a buyer. As always, I would buy in smaller quantities 500-1000 shares at a time if I need more in my portfolio. As always, consider the condition of your portfolio, available cash, and your risk tolerance to make your own decision on buying.

Below is the spot silver graph revealing another big intervention by the deep pocketed boyz. Silver has really taken it on the chin today after a lack luster yesterday. It is now 12.26 down 0.50 on a down tick. Probably will go lower until the demand picks up.


Below is a 1 month graph of VGZ. Since about the 25th of March, it has been in a narrow trading range of about 2.00 to 2.17. The last few days it has been as low as about 2.00, but has had a high about 2.14. The MACD curve is almost neutral which portends to the possibility of a lower price in the near future. It may move into a buying range below 2:00. I like to buy VGZ at about 1.90 or less. Should this correction go to there or lower, I would be a buyer.

Gold, as silver was hammered by the boyz today at precisely the same time. Wow, are they obvious in the manipulation of the precious metals. It looks as though they would be more stealth in their actions, but then who will chastise them? Right, nobody! Gold was in a free fall as the NY market opened. It is now 878.50 down 12.20 on a down tick.

Here is a 1 month graph on the miners. There has been quite a drop this month and today, they are down again. These seems to be some (weak) resistance at the 50 day moving average. It would be good for it to hold and we will wait to see. The downward move of the black MACD curve in the section of the graph gives a hint of an upward movement.


From James Turk's Commentary on Kitco.com:

Don't 'Invest' in Gold - Save It

Apr 14 2009 10:31AM

An old Chinese saying declares that wisdom begins by calling things by their right name. Truer words could not be spoken about gold. If you call gold by the wrong name, you begin down the wrong road, which is a serious handicap. It can easily prevent you from understanding why you should own gold as well as how to determine its value. The point is that gold is not an investment; it is money. Read the article HERE.

I have always said that the precious metals are a media for preserving wealth. On the other hand, the mining stocks are an investment which will pay off handsomely when the final gold rust comes as the masses have a great urgent craving for the metals as happened in 1979-1980. I believe it will happen again, but we have to be very patient. Events happen in the providential timing of the Sovereign God of all. That is not necessarily in our timing, but we rest in the fact that His timing and self-created events are best, particularly, for His people in the long run.

From National Public Radio:

'Green Revolution' Trapping India's Farmers In Debt

April 14, 2009 ยท As the world's population surges, the international community faces a pressing problem: How will it feed everybody?

Until recently, people thought India had an answer.

Farmers in the state of Punjab abandoned traditional farming methods in the 1960s and 1970s as part of the national program called the "Green Revolution," backed by advisers from the U.S. and other countries. Read it and view the video HERE.

From The Independent:

"1,500 farmers commit mass suicide in India";

1,500 farmers commit mass suicide in India

15 April, 2009

Over 1,500 farmers in an Indian state committed suicide after being driven to debt by crop failure, it was reported today.

The agricultural state of Chattisgarh was hit by falling water levels.

"The water level has gone down below 250 feet here. It used to be at 40 feet a few years ago," Shatrughan Sahu, a villager in one of the districts, told Down To Earth magazine

"Most of the farmers here are indebted and only God can save the ones who do not have a bore well."

Mr Sahu lives in a district that recorded 206 farmer suicides last year. Police records for the district add that many deaths occur due to debt and economic distress.

In another village nearby, Beturam Sahu, who owned two acres of land was among those who committed suicide. His crop is yet to be harvested, but his son Lakhnu left to take up a job as a manual labourer. Read it HERE.

These last two articles reveal that there is a growing concern about the food supply. We should take this dire situation in India as a wake up call. We should be preparing our "victory gardens" as many did during WWII. However, we have much better guides today for organic gardening to produce better produce. Of course, during WWII, most gardens were "organic," because that is what most of us knew. While on this subject, try to obtain seeds and plants which are not hybrids, because the seeds from hybrids do not always produce the same plants. The natural seeds do reproduce the same plants in general. Raised gardens are good for areas where the soil is poor and they also help reduce the weeding chores.

The tea parties were held on tax day. There were many folks in attendance here in San Antonio where it was held on the Alamo grounds. The Alamo is an icon for freedom in Texas. We, also, appreciated the recent stand of our Governor Perry on demanding the Federal Government to obey the 10th Amendment to the Constitution of These United States. Let us pray that the Feds will take this to heart and lighten up on the incursions into the sphere of the states and individuals. God can cause this to happen and will if we, as a nation, will turn back to Him. Praise Him daily for His providential actions in the creation of this nation and preserving of it.

Best to each, Doug



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