Thoughts on Markets

Friday, April 17, 2009

God's Blesses or Curses - Our Awesome Choice

The blessings and curses of God are crystal clear to all in America if each of us will simply study our early history and examine the moral decay of today. We are under the wrath of God, because of our turning away from Him. I will have more to say on this, below. I believe it is important for us to realize how our Covenantal God works with His people and unbelievers as well. God's Law is for every person and every nation, regardless of their acceptance or rejection, thereof.

Over night our precious metals have moved lower and then shortly after the NY opening, gold, particularly, was slammed again. The boyz are have large short positions in both metals and maybe working to lower the prices to increase their profit as the value of the shorts increase. It is a clear manipulation of the market. Thus, we have no free market in the metals. Also, impacting on the lower metal prices in the stronger dollar. The dollar has no real underpinning, but is often buoyed up by rhetoric. The following is insight on specific statements from Europe provided by The Daily Pfennig:

"Recall, yesterday I told you how European Central Bank (ECB) minister Axel Weber, confused the markets with a statement that left the markets scratching their collective heads. Well, this morning, ECB President Trichet, failed to calm the markets, and their fears of a split in the governing body of the ECB is weighing heavily on the euro. Trichet has got to get these split factions of the ECB together...

In one corner, we have Weber, who does NOT want to see interest rates fall below 1%, and does NOT want Quantitative Easing.

In another corner, we have the Greek contingent, that DO want to see deeper rate cuts, and Quantitative Easing if needed.

And then finally we have Austria's Nowotny, who agrees with Weber on the rate cuts, but believes that Quantitative Easing makes sense.

If Trichet can't get these factions to come together, then the euro is going to get bogged down in all this mess, for nothing will get done... Trichet tried to put on the "company face" and tell reporters in Tokyo this morning, that "we have a very united Governing Council"... But he must not have been convincing enough..."

It is amazing to me how the markets respond to rhetoric from politicians. Of course, we realize that such men would never speak to deceive the hearers, don't we? NOT!

From Gold World:

Born Into Debt

The Truth Surrounding America's Massive Financial Obligation

By Luke Burgess
Monday, April 6th, 2009

Michael Alton Davies was just born at Northwestern Memorial Hospital in downtown Chicago.

He weighs 7 pounds and 10 ounces. He is only minutes old. And yet, he is already saddled with a humongous debt.

Believe it or not, Michael was born into debt. . . and he owes almost $250,000!

His birth did not require special, expensive care. And he didn't inherit any debt from his parents or other family members.

No, there is actually nothing special at all about Michael's debt situation. He is not alone.

You see, young Michael — and every other citizen of the United States — will be responsible for paying the tab on a growing $70 trillion debt. Read the article HERE.

This reminds me of the student loans that college students take out to get a college education. (By the way, most is actually a college dis-education or indoctrination into socialism.) But on the debt, each will find them starting life with a huge debt. Most never pay the debt off in violation of God's warning that "The wicked borrow and pay not back." God's word speaks often against debt. For examples: "The rich (lender) rules over the poor (borrower)." "The borrower is servant to the lender."
"Owe no man anything, but to love one another."


I always advise against student loans, because the student, upon graduation is carrying a very heavy burden of debt as he starts out in life. God's way is to avoid debt in so far as the economy and fraudulent currencies will allow. I suggest that you commit to the Lord to get out of and stay out of debt, cut your spending as far as possible, and increase your income as opportunity is presented to you and your family. Be sure to return to the Lord His tenth of all increase and as we read in Malachi Chapter 3, He will send you showers of blessing. The blessings are not always financial, but there will be blessings from God. If you do not to honor Him by paying His tithe, do not expect blessings.

All of covenantal God's blessings for obedience bring with them curses for disobedience. Read Deuteronomy Chapter 28 for explicit blessings and curses. Our God honors His word and it does not return void. It will accomplish that for which He sends it out. The reality of the blessings of early America and today's curses upon her are examples of the truth of this chapter in the Bible.

Silver, as gold has been on a downward binge over night, but was not slammed as hard as gold in early NY trading. Sivler is 11.92 down 0.30 and gold is 866 down 8.30. Both are on down ticks. My trading miners are, as follows: DROOY 6.97; HL 2.14; HMY 8.42, and VGZ 1.98. HL remains the star performer. All the others are, certainly, within my buying range. However, I am finding it wise to sit aside patiently and wait to see where the correction will go this time around. The DOW is off 31+ to 8049 and change.

From UK The Telegraph:

A 'Copper Standard' for the world's currency system?

Hard money enthusiasts have long watched for signs that China is switching its foreign reserves from US Treasury bonds into gold bullion. They may have been eyeing the wrong metal.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 2:41PM BST 16 Apr 2009

China's State Reserves Bureau (SRB) has instead been buying copper and other industrial metals over recent months on a scale that appears to go beyond the usual rebuilding of stocks for commercial reasons.

Nobu Su, head of Taiwan's TMT group, which ships commodities to China, said Beijing is trying to extricate itself from dollar dependency as fast as it can.

"China has woken up. The West is a black hole with all this money being printed. The Chinese are buying raw materials because it is a much better way to use their $1.9 trillion of reserves. They get ten times the impact, and can cover their infrastructure for 50 years." Read it HERE.

It is apparent that China is running away from the dollar as the reserve currency. A run to copper and other industrial metals seems a good choice for them. Their manufacturing capability has grown, likely over grown, significantly over the last decade. In fact, it has been phenomenal. The mal-investment will take some time to work itself out, but remember that China holds oodles of dollars which it is spending for "things" to lower their reserves. I still believe that China could really move forward by backing the Renminbi with gold. They are perhaps the only nation in the world that could do it at the present time. A gold backed currency is in concert with the Word of God. The paper currencies are fraud according His word. The paper currencies are like the laws of man which are ever changing and gold backed currency is more like the laws of God which are eternally fixed.

From Bloomberg:
General Growth Files Biggest U.S. Property Bankruptcy (Update2)

By Daniel Taub and Brian Louis

April 16 (Bloomberg) -- General Growth Properties Inc. filed the biggest real estate bankruptcy in U.S. history after amassing $27 billion in debt during an acquisition spree that turned it into the second-largest shopping mall owner. Read it HERE.




Fore closers in America reached the highest level on record during March. Even with homes sales increasing, one has to wonder about the prices of the sales. Certainly, they were much lower. So, it is rational to believe that the lower prices resulted in the sales. The sellers likely took the losses. The hotels, malls, and shopping centers are in trouble. Investment companies which have huge investments in them have been suffering, but have begun to show improvement. There are a few, as follows: HOT, IHG, SPG, GGP (article, above), TCO, and DDR. One wonders whether to short them or buy puts on them, but the prices on most have increased recently. I still wonder if the commercial real estate is yet to be hit as hard as the residential real estate. The situation in the fore closers certainly does not speak for a strong dollar.

From The Financial Times:

Is America the new Russia?

By Martin Wolf

Published: April 14 2009 21:47 | Last updated: April 14 2009 21:47

Is the US Russia? The question seems provocative, if not outrageous. Yet the person asking it is Simon Johnson, former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund and a professor at the Sloan School of Management at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. In an article in the May issue of the Atlantic Monthly, Prof Johnson compares the hold of the “financial oligarchy” over US policy with that of business elites in emerging countries. Do such comparisons make sense? The answer is Yes, but only up to a point.

“In its depth and suddenness,” argues Prof Johnson, “the US economic and financial crisis is shockingly reminiscent of moments we have recently seen in emerging markets.” The similarity is evident: large inflows of foreign capital; torrid credit growth; excessive leverage; bubbles in asset prices, particularly property; and, finally, asset-price collapses and financial catastrophe. Read it HERE.

Could be. We will see as time marches onward. Gold is 868.20 and silver 11.98, as I close.

Best to each, Doug

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